Don’t rile the bear. In other words, don’t provoke Russia. This is how a German journalist working for one of his country’s most influential newspapers described Berlin’s policy to me during an informal chat. This policy effectively boils down to appeasing Russia, which is adamantly opposed to Ukraine’s NATO membership.
He also said that anti-American attitudes now prevail in his country. It suffers from amnesia, having forgotten what the US did for the divided country of Germany. “If the US had behaved like Germany is behaving today, East Germany would still be under Soviet rule,” he said.
Why is one of the greatest powers in the world (whose symbol is actually a bear) so afraid of Russia? Did the rule of the Social Democratic Party of Germany under Gerhard Schroeder change the country so much? How did it happen that, while remembering their own 20th-century history, especially the Nazi terror, and keeping the remains of the Berlin Wall, the Germans forgot who made the Soviet Union withdraw its troops from East Germany and helped them realize their dream of a united country?
Ukraine too does not understand why Germany, especially after Russia’s invasion of Georgia, is unwilling to meet Kyiv halfway in its efforts to obtain the NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP) and eventually NATO membership, which would place it under the Atlantic umbrella of collective security. Meanwhile, many people are convinced that Ukraine may become Russia’s next target after Georgia. This view was voiced recently by France’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Bernard Kouchner.
Meanwhile, Ruprecht Polenz, the Chair of the Committee on Foreign Affairs in the Bundestag, believes that Russia made a terrible mistake in Georgia by recognizing Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which effectively means the annexation of these two Georgian provinces. Speaking on Oct. 13, 2008, at the European Academy in Berlin at the third-stage event of the project “Public Support for Ukraine’s Bid for the MAP,” part of the Ukraine-Germany-Poland Dialogue, Polenz said that the German side is concerned about Russia’s foreign policy principles, recently announced by President Dmitry Medvedev.
According to Polenz, during his visit to Moscow he did not succeed in obtaining an explanation from the Kremlin about the meaning of the phrase, “defending Russians in any region of the Earth.” The German politician added that another factor that raises concerns is that Russia wants to make the former Soviet republics a zone of exclusively Russian interests.
Krzysztof Lisek, the Chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the Polish Sejm, stressed the need to develop a common EU stance on Russia, which should be based on the principle that Moscow cannot be offered a strategic partnership if it does not share EU values. Markus Meckel, the Chair of the German-Polish parliamentary group in the Bundestag, believes that EU-Russia relations have a strategic character, despite the fact that Vladimir Putin has become autocratic and is repressing democracy. Meckel also noted that Brussels cannot launch negotiations with Moscow until it ascertains Russia’s actions in Georgia.
“Russia has to know that its action will entail consequences,” Meckel emphasized. Speaking about Ukraine’s chances for MAP, he said that now is not the best time for NATO to take this step. “We do not see a stable situation in Ukraine. I do not see any reasons why NATO should destabilize itself by offering Ukraine the MAP,” said the German MP from the Social Democratic Party.
Volodymyr Khandohii, Ukraine’s first deputy foreign minister, denied that the situation in Ukraine is unstable and said that the country has a functioning government. He emphasized that the best reaction to the events in Georgia would be to extend the MAP to Ukraine and Georgia. In his opinion, NATO needs to be consistent and tell Ukraine how it can become a member of the Atlantic alliance.
However, Germany is not likely to be swayed in its attitude to MAP. As Polenz said, Ukraine and Georgia will join NATO once they meet its criteria. Meckel mentioned another condition for Ukraine-a parliamentary majority must submit a request for admitting Ukraine to a higher format of relations. To this Khandohii replied: “The MAP is not NATO membership. We are not asking to join NATO; what we are talking about is starting the preparations. The issue is not about writing an entrance exam, just entering a library,” said the Ukrainian diplomat.
Nevertheless, Germany views Ukraine’s mission in a different way. Polenz believes that as a result of successful reforms in Ukraine, which will have close ties with Russia, it will be easier to carry out changes in the Russian Federation. But it remains unclear how this can happen if Ukraine is denied the MAP and EU membership prospects, which are the very things that will guarantee its Western course.
