The hard currency market reacted promptly to Yeltsin’s long-lasting bronchitis – the US dollar costs one and a half rubles more than before. Russia, that is experiencing a deep structural and financial crisis, just cannot afford to have an ill and disabled president. Although Grigory Yavlinsky made a joke about candidates for Yeltsin’s “throne”: “Boris Nikolaevich might catch a cold at your funeral,” the situation is gradually converting into tragedy. While all the arrows are aimed at the seriously ill President those political forces that ensured Yeltsin’s reelection for the second term still remain in the shadows.
Serious political analysts predicted such developments a year and two years ago. In particular, mid-1997 Giulietto Chiesa’s book Goodbye, Russia! appeared and in general predicted the current crisis. Now Mr. Chiesa, author of seven books (six of them are devoted to Russia) and Moscow correspondent of the oldest Italian newspaper La Stampa shares with The Day his thoughts about the initial reasons for the Russian crisis and its possible consequences.
Q.: Taking into account the financial and economic fall in Russia what would you say about the current developments and prospects of Yeltsin’s Moscow?
A.: We always should keep in mind previous developments. When so-called Russian democrats destroyed the Soviet Union (even not in its “strengthened version” proposed by Gorbachev) they self-confidently thought that Russia would become soon not only free but also rich, able to promptly take the road of capitalistic development. Perhaps, they thought there would be no external obstacles for Russia, and the West would properly and timely assist it.
What do we have now? Just take the Caspian issue alone. Powerful Western concerns, not taking much care to mask themselves, want to take local energy resources into their own hands. Documents on allegedly partnership are being signed. But in reality Russia is being manipulated, they want to force it out, to deprive it of the significant role it is currently playing in the oil and gas markets.
In this light the understanding is growing that Russia has to gain real independence. And Russians need an adequate ruling elite to do so. The current Russian oligarchy has sustained its ultimate defeat. It has shown its inability to govern the country. Leaders of the new generation will probably have to bet on the real independence of the Russian state. At the same time, it shouldnТt cause some deaf closing itself off from the outside world, from the comprehensive globalization of capital or from the globalization of exchanging ideas and people.
Q.: One can agree with you that thinking politicians undoubtedly should take into account all those global processes. But we should not forget about УmundaneФ things like living standards and how hard it is for ordinary people to survive in Russia now.
A.: This is why I say that Russia as a country and a huge national conglomerate should immediately define and set out on its path to survival and revival. The next year or two can be crucial in this. I believe in a true renaissance of RussiaТs majesty, its entire majesty of its spirit. Moreover, I donТt want to be a Cassandra.
However, under a certain scenario of developments, Russians one not so fine day could wake up in an absolutely different country. It may be a state much smaller than its current dimensions as well as in its influence on its own and international affairs.
Q.: You are dealing with information regarding Russia. To what extent do you deal with Ukrainian issues? What do you think about our developments?
A.: Many things that I said about Russia can also be applied to Ukraine. I donТt want to hurt anyoneТs feelings, but I think that Уthe wave of independenceФ and the ideology that accompanied establishing sovereignty have been largely exhausted. To a greater extent this ideology was and still is being defined by Communist Party functionaries.
For instance, I do not forget that Leonid Kravchuk used to be a high-ranking Communist Party functionary. He along with his comrades at a certain moment insisted Ukraine proclaim its independence as soon as possible. Do not be offended, but the sovereignty gained is so illusive. Powerful foreign financial centers along with Western policy-making centers do not stand much on ceremony. Ukraine may convert if not into something like a colony than into a commodity market for Western goods of not the best quality. As a matter of fact, this is already rapidly happening. And take your financial pyramids! Sure, one can say that they were built by certain stratum of the new Ukrainian elite. Indeed, but with Western partners actively assisting.
I would say that now Ukraine is less independent than before 1991. Yes, it has a President, government, and renewed Parliament. However, no single important decision can be taken in Ukraine without Germany and America knowing about it. This can be explained very simply: Ukraine has no real economic independence.
