Socialists are in power in France after the presidential and parliamentary elections, with Francois Hollande replacing German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s partner Nicolas Sarkozy, so this tandem will determine the European project’s future. While in office, Sarkozy made it clear that France saw Ukraine’s European prospects. What about Francois Hollande? Does he support the EC President’s idea about a federal Europe? More on this in the following exclusive interview with Oleksandr KUPCHYSHYN, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine to the French Republic (who recently took part in a conference of heads of Ukraine’s diplomatic missions in Kyiv).
“It is true that Sarkozy was personally interested in Ukraine’s integration with the European Union. During the EU summit in 2008, presiding over the EU, Sarkozy proclaimed a new phase in the relations with Ukraine and arranged for the Association Agreement talks. The political situation in France has changed after the presidential elections in early May, when the Socialist candidate, Francois Hollande, won his small margin victory. Then the Socialists won the parliamentary race in June, with Nicolas Sarkozy and his right-wing Union for a Popular Movement going into opposition. However, there are things that do not change even if the political situation changes. There is a kind of continuity. This is an important specificity of Western democracy. No matter what happens in the political realm, there are basic things that form an insurmountable barrier. I believe that among these basic things is the French Establishment’s view of Ukraine as a member of the European community of nations, as a participant in the European process.”
How would you describe Hollande’s attitude?
“All nuances considered, his attitude to Ukraine’s integration aspirations is positive. Euro-Atlantic solidarity is another basic thing. It was maintained when Sarkozy was president and it remains. This implies serving Europe’s interests in the first place, including the attitude to Ukraine. I’m not aware of any changes in this assessment of Ukraine’s European integration process.”
Do you think the France-Germany tandem has started moving faster after Hollande came to power?
“A very good question. Changes have certainly taken place. To begin with, Sarkozy and Merkel belonged to the same political force and kept supporting each other (all of us could watch this on our television screens). Furthermore, I believe that Merkel acted counter to the diplomatic tradition when she openly supported Sarkozy during the presidential campaign; when she made it clear that Sarkozy was her favorite, but then Hollande won the campaign and it was necessary to establish a new kind of relationships. Needless to say, France and Germany are the leading EU members. They are doomed to cooperate. Still, certain differences have surfaced. The Hollande-Merkel tandem can hardly be described as moving faster [than the previous one], although we watch on television their frequent meetings and joint efforts. The reality is somewhat different.”
Would you specify?
“There are actually serious differences between the two of them and the main one is…”
The financial pact, isn’t it?
“That’s right. The French president has made it perfectly clear that the financial stability pact between Sarkozy and Merkel will not exist in the new [political] environment.”
The pact bill has been submitted to parliament and Sarkozy’s party is sure to vote for it.
“Time will tell. I believe they will come to terms some or other way. The difference between their approaches is that Merkel, like Sarkozy, believes that tightening one’s belt – in other words, rigid economic measures – is the right path. Hollande believes that development/progress is the main income source. No one objects, except that the big question is where to find this source. France is trying to locate it, revising certain budget programs, significantly reducing the state apparatus. I know this country well enough. The French are very pragmatic and I think the new administration will find this development/progress source.
“Merkel keeps insisting on her original bell-tightening thesis and this is what makes the biggest difference between the German and French approaches. However, I’m convinced that Paris and Berlin will come to terms, otherwise there will be no dynamic progress for the European Union.”
Do you think France will support the idea of a federal Europe, as proposed by the president of the European Commission?
“I find it hard to visualize the French agreeing to such serious limitations of their sovereignty. Sovereignty is their basic historical value. Remember the 2005 referendum when they voted against the new European Constitution? I don’t think that the French will accept the idea of a federal Europe. Further integration, rather than federalism, is what they’re more likely to accept. I could be wrong, of course, but knowing this country and its traditions well, I can hardly expect the French to support the [federal Europe] idea.”
What did Hollande have in mind when calling for integration solidaire before debating the fiscal bill in parliament?
“In fact, he prefers integration to federalization, considering that no one will object to integration, and that Europe’s objective is to step up the integration process. Federalization is a bit different; it envisages the setting up of certain bodies with supranational powers. France will take a restrained stand in this matter.”
The French have agreed to strengthen control over the banking system, gouvernance economique. Doesn’t this spell concessions in terms of sovereignty?
“Finding solutions to a problem means reaching a compromise. A compromise will be achieved, of course, and not only on the part of France. I think that Germany will take steps toward this compromise. These two European powers will find a way to solve this problem and remain the European Union’s motive force. It is important for Ukraine to have France’s support of its European integration aspirations.”
Is it true that France is suffering recession because it refuses to take economic measures and make reforms the way Germany and the Netherlands are doing, according to the Capital Economics?
“Francois Hollande is determined to keep his campaign promises and is opposed to rigid economic measures while trying to find ways to step up progress and well-being. I have an inside view of the situation in France. This situation is complex, considering the latest unemployment statistics.”
You mean above three million unemployed?
“You are well informed. This is bad statistic. On October 7, I couldn’t get to the airport to board the flight to Kyiv because Paris was blocked by unemployment strikers. Still, I think the French will find a solution to this problem.”
Does Sarkozy stand a chance of returning to politics, being the leader of the [opposition] party? Ex-Prime Minister Francois Fillon (regarded by some analysts as the next party leader) has admitted in an interview that he often communicates with Sarkozy and that the latter charges him with energy and ideas.
“Sarkozy has adopted a low political profile after losing the presidential campaign. He is in the legal field, considering that all former presidents of France become members of the Constitutional Council. However, I know Sarkozy’s ambitions and I don’t think that he will stay politically inactive for long. After all, he isn’t old enough to step down as a politician.”
A French journalist told me recently that there isn’t enough information about Ukraine in his country, particularly about the role Ukraine can play – or is playing – in helping Europe’s economic progress and world peace. What should Ukraine do to help the French learn more about Ukraine?
“Sad but true. My task, as ambassador, is to help the French learn more about Ukraine. Historically, France has mostly focused on Russia. This is the past. You can trust my word: today’s France regards Ukraine as a potentially strong and independent European country. Euro-2012 has played its part, of course, considering that the French national team played in the same standing with the Ukrainian one – particularly the fact that the French soccer team was about the only one to be on Ukrainian turf (I might as well point out that the Ukrainian Embassy in Paris made every effort for this to happen; that we talked the French national’s leadership into accepting Ukraine’s accommodations, assuring them that they would find nothing below standard – which they would later confirm).
“The Embassy is doing its best to build Ukraine’s image, being assisted by its Culture and Information Center [C-A-IC] that hosts presentations, exhibits, Ukrainian films, and discussions. While it is true that there isn’t enough information about Ukraine in France, the effort is on an upward curve. The C-A-IC has a tight daily schedule: an art exhibit, the screening of a Ukrainian movie, a concert starring Ukraine’s performers, a political discussion, you name it. We have a polling station for the parliamentary elections. The French public is very choosy, so we arrange every such event with special care. I have noticed an increasing number of French nationals attending these events of late. This makes me happy.”
What kind of assistance would Ukraine expect from France in terms of European integration?
“Considering that France came up with the Association Agreement idea, failing this would mean France’s fiasco. I was told so, in no uncertain words, in France. Failing to integrate Ukraine and sign the agreement would mean France’s political initiative’s fiasco. A very important fact to bear in mind in Ukraine. France is helping Ukraine in the legal domain, including consulting.”
Any requirements in regard to the Association Agreement from official Paris?
“There are certain requirements to be observed by Ukraine.”
Including Tymoshenko’s release from jail, right?
“Their stand is that every trial must be held in accordance with Europe’s democratic standards. Similar requirements come from other EU members. Besides, the democratic nature of the parliamentary elections in Ukraine will be an important indicator. France regards this event as a crucial factor of further bilateral relations and Ukraine’s integration aspirations. During all [formal] meetings my French counterparts would stress Ukraine’s rapprochement with the EU and stepping up the process of signing the Association Agreement. After the elections are held in a democratic way – and I’m sure they will – the relations between Ukraine and France will receive a fresh impetus.”
What about trade and economic cooperation?
“Economic cooperation shows good dynamics, with about two billion euros’ worth of trade turnover, although I think this is not good enough for two such big European countries. On the other hand, good enough, compared to 1.5 billion euros in 2009, due to the crisis – also, compared to 2.5 billion euros before the crisis. I believe this pre-crisis level will be reached before long. Ukraine and France are seriously cooperating in terms of agribusiness; both territories are comparable – by the way, once also comparable in terms of population: 50:52 million, compared to 58:46 today. There are about 300 companies with French capital in Ukraine. Also, there are prospects for joint aircraft construction businesses. I visited Airbus in Toulouse. They told me they were interested in doing business with the Antonov Aeronautical Scientific/Technical Complex [in Kyiv]. France wants Ukraine to buy its aircraft and I keep telling them that integration comes first, including aircraft maintenance, combine of technology development and exchange efforts, that this means deeper integration.
“As regards construction, the powerful French company Bouygues is entering the Ukrainian market. There are also shipbuilding and military-technological cooperation prospects. France is interested in Ukraine’s transit potential and the upgrading of Ukraine’s highway infrastructure; there are alternative energy source, waste disposal, water supply, municipal infrastructure, and IT projects.”
What about Ukrainian businesses in France?
“A week ago, the Mouvement des Entreprises de France (MEDEF) hosted the launch of two Ukrainian oblasts, Dnipropetrovsk and Lviv. The event was attended by some fifty French businessmen – and this considering that it started at 8 a.m. (you can hardly get a Frenchman out of bed at this hour, no matter what). Their presence was proof that France is interested in doing business with Ukraine. Enhancing bilateral interregional cooperation is another way to establish contacts between small- and medium-sized businesses in Ukraine and France, and to step up scientific and technological cooperation.”
