It is too early to say whether the sanctions approved by the EU Foreign Affairs Council last Monday will have any impact on Russia.
Yet it is only the first stage of EU sanctions, and the main point is, according to Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel, that Europe has taken a joint response to Russia’s obvious violation of the Ukrainian and international law during the so-called referendum in Crimea.
At the same time, Merkel expressed a hope for a diplomatic settlement of the Crimean crisis. The West is prepared, as before, for a dialog, and diplomacy must be the key to resolving the conflict. But Moscow is not showing the same kind of readiness.
Or, maybe, Moscow does not just believe that Europe can act tougher, even though there are a lot of signals to this effect. In particular, French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius has said France may consider the possibility of canceling the contract on the supply of Mistral warships to Russia if the situation in Ukraine further escalates. Moreover, the minister said France would ask the UK “to do something equivalent with the assets of the Russian oligarchs in London.”
His British counterpart William Hague told the Sky News TV channel that ministers had begun to discuss some long-term issues, including reduction of Europe’s dependence on Russian energy resources.
EXPERT OPINIONS
Pawel KOWAL, Chair, Delegation to the EU-Ukraine Parliamentary Cooperation Committee:
“Firstly, I am against calling this nonsense a referendum. International community considers it as illegal from the beginning and we have to underline very strong, that NATO, EU, OSCE and other international organizations does not consider it as a legal referendum. Its outcomes cannot be treated as an official position of people living in Crimea.
“Secondly, position of the EU and USA is clear – sanctions against Russian officials is a good step, but it was made too late. Russia annexed Crimea and now tries to find a legal confirmation for this situation. The main aim of the West should be not only sanctions against Russia – which are obvious – but also strong support for Ukrainians. I do not mean only financial aid and political support – if European Union treats cooperation with Ukraine seriously, it should start talks about signing full Association Agreement in next few months. Dividing it into two parts was a big mistake. New Ukrainian government should also come back to the talks with NATO about Membership Action Plan. It is also a perfect moment to start close military cooperation between Poland, Ukraine, Lithuania, and other countries of the region.”
Dr. Matthew ROJANSKY, Director, Kennan Institute, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars:
“I agree these sanctions are not likely to change the situation. But something is better than nothing. Putin must believe that the west is willing to endure pain in order to draw a firm line. I think he assumes that US and European leaders are too afraid of the consequences for their own economies to be willing to impose tougher sanctions. The situation in Crimea may be irreversible yet annexation by Russia is clearly not acceptable and any such move should trigger the most severe sanctions against Russian state companies, not just individuals. Until Putin believes the west is prepared to accept these two-way economic consequences, threats will be meaningless.”
