It is interesting that before announcing his exit from the coalition talks with Tymoshenko, Victor Yanukovych took a clandestine flight to Moscow. As he later explained, he had to visit a private clinic where an examination of his sore leg had been scheduled (though a couple of years ago he underwent some treatment for his knee in Spain). Yanukovych is said to have had an informal meeting with Medvedev during this trip and to have become finally convinced after this meeting that an alliance with Tymoshenko would not be a reasonable act.
Conversely, Ukraine’s first President Leonid Kravchuk has his own ideas as to why the coalition between PR and BYuT has flopped. In his opinion, ‘external influence’ only rates third.
Mr. Kravchuk, you have been an ardent supporter of the PR–BYuT coalition all the while. Why do you think it didn’t become a reality?
“The main reason is that Yanukovych hopes to win in the national presidential election if his popularity rating is high enough. This is the first reason, and perhaps the main one. Another one is that in the PR itself there were people who wanted Yanukovych to go for the national election, while the constitutional, administrative, and judicial reforms were going to be put off the election.
“The third reason is certainly the external influence. But the new president, whoever that may be, will have to build a working partnership with Russia.”
Do you think Russia is going to stake on any of the Ukrainian politicians in this election?
“When I was in Moscow, I asked this question while talking to some people who are close to the Kremlin. Most of them were rather negative about it. We think they aren’t going to openly back anyone, they said. There won’t be another 2004.
“First, Russia has acquired experience. Second, Russia has learned its lesson: no matter who you back, they will pursue their own course, irrespective of Russian interests. That’s what was said. But it doesn’t mean in the least that Russian priorities cannot change. The appointment of Russia’s new ambassador to Ukraine will be an indicator in this respect. Who will it be? Is it going to be a politician or a professional diplomat? Hawk or dove? This person will show everything [regarding Russia’s stance].”
On Monday Yulia Tymoshenko conjectured on the ICTV Channel that Viktor Yushchenko is Arsenii Yatseniuk’s dummy candidate, while the latter is the same for Viktor Yanukovych. What do you think of it?
“It’s hard for me to judge. Ms. Tymoshenko said they had a joint headquarters.”
Which is headed by Firtash.
“If this is true, then one can say that it’s a union of forces with real financial and political resources to remove Ms. Tymoshenko from power. But these men are all too different. Personally, I don’t believe that at the end of his career Yushchenko, even with his chances as slim as they are, would become a dummy candidate for Yatsenyuk.“
Suppose that Yanukovych wins the election. Then Tymoshenko will retain the post of the prime minister anyway. Do you think it’s possible for Yanukovych and Tymoshenko to reach an agreement after the election?
“I think they’ll have to. The question is what to build the agreement on. Personal interest is something quite different from the interests of Ukraine. I can’t find a country with a worse imbalance of power than here in Ukraine. And they should think hard about ways of making the government efficient. They can’t but start looking for an agreement. Whoever wins in the forthcoming election should forget all the grudges and turn over a new leaf on which the core interests of Ukraine should be written. It’s their duty to do that.
“It seems to me that even the oligarchs behind Tymoshenko and Yanukovych will urge them to unite. For if there is no unity, there will be bankruptcy that will cause them tremendous losses. Everything has changed, and the crisis is no temporary thing. It’s going to last [some time], and people have to learn to live under these conditions.”
