Nothing can be hid without being further disclosed. According to unofficial data, Ukraine considered the possibility of getting bond certificates in rubles and conducted negotiations with a number of Russia’s largest financial institutions. But the Ukrainian government was in no haste to announce its intensions to place securities in the Russian market. Instead, it was announced by the president-chairman of Sberbank German Gref. Behind the scenes of the Forum Russia-2012 that was organized by Sberbank and “Troika Dialog” he told reporters that his state bank, the largest in Russia, has been negotiating with the government of Ukraine about debt financing for our country. According to Gref, he at the moment “has no concerns that something might not work out.” He also added that Sberbank of RF “has not yet received a request for bilateral credit” from the government of Ukraine.
Ukraine certainly needs loans and investments, and, unfortunately, more and more with time. Our monetary system today is very similar to a financial pyramid that exists only on more and more loans. Thus, the country’s balance of payments deficit last year reached 2.45 billion dollars, while in 2010 this balance was drawn up with surplus of 5 billion dollars. In addition to that, according to the National Bank of Ukraine, the deficit of the current account grew by three times from 3 billion dollars in 2010 to 9 billion, while the surplus of the capital account and financial account, which can be called a play stick for monetary and financial situation in the country, last year was reduced by 15 percent to 6.8 billion dollars from 8 billion from the previous year.
Our government sets great hopes on the cooperation with the International Monetary Fund. However, at the present moment there is no mutual understanding between them. During the meeting of Ukraine’s Prime Minister Mykola Azarov with the head of the IMF Christine Lagarde he tried to come to terms and provided, what seemed, irresistible arguments. “I said to her that both Ukraine and Greece, for example, are the members of the IMF. The 150 billion debt of Greece is now simply written off,” told prime minister recently to Ukrainian businessmen. “Let’s just think about the scale of the figures,” he continued. “150 billion are simply written off and another 250 billion are restructured under yield of 3.75 percent. Now the debates are going on whether it should be 3.75 percent or 3.5 percent because our country with its population five times as big as the population of Greece has no fewer problems.” One of them is country’s great external and internal debt. “Our debts are, as they say, pulling us but we will pay them off, we already have a schedule for that and we will pay them off,” said Azarov and emphasized that Ukraine’s economy is stable and is developing. According to him, the GDP growth in 2012 could reach five percent and inflation will stay a single digit number. “The year 2012 has certain risks in terms of domestic market and foreign markets, but we are looking very positive at the year ahead,” said Azarov.
Perhaps the course of negotiations with Russian Sberbank gives Azarov such confidence? However, aren’t we going to get into credit kabala as a result? While the IMF, as a rule, accompanies its credits with certain economic demands to the debtor, we have every reason to think that our neighbor will stipulate its credit with political conditions. However, in present situation Ukrainian government, as they say, has no choice. Andrii Onistrat, chairman of the Supervisory Board of National Credit Bank thinks so. In his opinion, the main thing today is at what profitability the Ukrainian bond certificates will be issued and distributed in Russia. If it will be up to seven percent, in case of interstate relations it can be considered normal. Onistrat does not reset the rate of political risks that arise in this case, but argues that in any case the party that takes a credit begins to work for someone who gives it. “What should scare us here?” he asked and gave an answer right away: “Political dependence.” Then he immediately puts a rhetorical question: “It is already there, isn’t it?”
