Russia seems to be opting for further escalation of the conflict in eastern Ukraine. Nothing is standing in its way – neither the threats of US and EU sanctions nor the Geneva accords which Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov signed the week before last. On the same week, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin said that the use of the army by the Ukrainian government against separatist terrorists in Sloviansk was a very serious crime against the Ukrainian own people. Still earlier, he had said that the local population in eastern Ukraine was demanding that the authorities respect their rights and that masks had been ripped off. But, in reality, it stands out a mile that all these “human rights champions” are by no means ordinary people, for they are armed to the teeth.
On the evening before, in an interview with the English-language TV channel Russia Today, Minister Lavrov began to threaten Ukraine with the use of force if the rights of Russians are infringed in the east, although, in reality, the Ukrainian government announced that it was resuming the operation against the armed terrorists who still occupy administrative buildings in some cities of eastern Ukraine. “If our interests, our legitimate interests, the interests of Russians have been attacked directly, like they were in South Ossetia for example, I do not see any other way but to respond in full accordance with international law,” the minister said. Lavrov did not specify what exactly interests he meant. In the past few weeks, Russia has concentrated thousands of servicemen and pieces of equipment on the border with Ukraine and has even begun to increase their number.
Incidentally, Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs promptly reacted to this statement and said this should be viewed as readiness to commit an aggression against Ukraine and continue, for this purpose, the military buildup near Ukraine’s state border. “The assumption in the aforesaid interview that Ukraine might attack the interests and the citizens of Russia looks totally unfounded against the backdrop of the efforts Ukraine is making to deescalate and peacefully resolve the conflict. The ongoing antiterrorist operation fully complies with the law of Ukraine and Ukraine’s international commitments and is aimed at defending residents of eastern Ukraine from terrorist and other unlawful actions as well as suppressing violence,” the ministry’s statement emphasizes.
Moscow did not bat an eyelid to a new warning from US President Barack Obama who said in visiting Tokyo that Russia was not abiding by the spirit and letter of the Geneva Agreement aimed at easing tension in eastern Ukraine. He said Russia had failed to stop the aggression of pro-Russian gunmen in the region. President Obama announced expanded sanctions against Russia, without specifying the day they might be imposed. He only pointed out it was a matter of days, not weeks.
Obama also explained “throughout this process, our goal has been to change Mr. Putin’s calculus; that our preference is to resolve this issue diplomatically; that sanctions hurt Russia more than anybody else but they’re disruptive to the global economy.”
At the same time, he added that he would coordinate his position with the EU so that the European community imposed a third package of sanctions on Russia. But this seems to be a vague hope. As Stefan Meister, Senior Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told The Day, Germany has shown no official reaction to Lavrov’s statement. “On the whole, I would say Germany is too optimistic about the possibility of a constructive dialog with Russia. There is a strong opinion that Russia should be interested in a stable and prosperous Ukraine, which I think is wrong. Besides, business circles are pressing for getting back to ‘business as usual’ with Russia. Nevertheless, I think German political figures are prepared to take part in a third stage of functions, and there have already been intensive discussions about what can be involved in this stage. The question is when to impose these sanctions. Germany still believes it is not yet the time for a third stage. Lavrov’s comments may well force Germany to understand that the moment for these sanctions is coming up, but this is not quite clear,” Meister said.
Sijbren de Jong, an analyst at The Hague Center for Strategic Studies, believes that the Netherlands is not interested in sanctions against Russia. In his words, the sign of this is that the Royal Dutch Shell general manager has visited Russia and met President Putin. “Shell wants to produce more gas in cooperation with Gazprom. The company has even marked the 20-year-long partnership in Sakhalin. Russia ousted Shell from Sakhalin in 2006, but now this firm would be very glad to come back. It is unlikely that tougher sanctions will be imposed against such Russian energy companies as Gazprom and Rosneft. Dutch businesses will not support this,” de Jong said. He also noted that the government had called the intrusion of Russian bombers into the Dutch air space just an incident. “Indeed, it often happens that airplanes – Russian and others – fly into our air space without warning,” he explained.
“RUSSIA POSES A THREAT TO THE ENTIRE EUROPE”
Marius LAURINAVICIUS, senior analyst, Center of Eastern Europe Studies, Vilnius:
“On the whole, with due account of the context in which Lavrov made this statement, the situation is dangerous enough. And, in my view, even we, Lithuanians, are not aware of a true danger. I do not mean the reaction of the European Union. What I mean is that not all officials in our country are aware of a really serious danger for Ukraine.”
Do you mean that these threats are groundless for your country? Or am I mistaken?
“No, they are not groundless. I only wanted to emphasize that we are used to this kind of statements. And if you are used to statements, you do not show an excessive reaction. At the same time, I do not think we should excessively react to this concrete statement. In a real situation, Russia’s actions are dangerous indeed. This statement is another illustration that Russia will be more aggressive in the future than it is now. The threat is not only to Ukraine, but also to the Baltic countries, Moldova, and even Poland and other countries. To sum it up, the question is when we are going to stop this regime of Putin’s. If we all – the EU, the US, and Ukraine, the entire democratic world – manage to stop the Putin regime, this will cost us less than if we allow this regime to go on doing its bloody business. That will also cost us more in financial terms as well as in terms of human lives because this regime poses a real threat. In the case of Ukraine, Russia poses a threat to the entire world.”
Incidentally, who is to blame – the mass media or politicians – for the fact that Europeans are unaware of the danger of Putin’s regime even now that Russia has occupied Crimea?
“Speaking of the European Union and the Old Europe, as a former US defense secretary once said, these countries are accustomed to living in very safe and comfortable conditions. For this reason, it is really difficult for them to understand that the danger is quite real – not only for Ukraine and Crimea. They consider the current conflict as a regional one which will leave their life unaffected. Naturally, they are morally supporting Ukraine but see no real danger on the part of Russia. Western analysts look at [military] figures and see that NATO’s military power far outstrips that of Russia. But they do not understand that Russia may pose a threat to Europe. Then they look at economic figures. Anders Aslund, a US-based professional Swedish analyst, published an article, which says Russia is unable to launch a war due to the economic situation. It is a wrong approach because Russia is now waging an absolutely new war. It is not a conventional war in which bomber aircraft or tanks are used. But it is a war of Russia against Ukraine. And, to wage this war, Russia needs no perfect economic results. And whenever we hear that the Russian nation has been given a national idea to enlarge Russia by annexing Ukraine or even some other countries, we say that this idea is dangerous to us and we do not share it. But we must understand that they were given this idea which is very popular among the Russian population. Moreover, the Russians are prepared to undergo ordeals to implement this idea.
“In my opinion, the Western world’s main problem is that we are trying to think of Russia, using our own terms and notions. But, to understand Russia, we should use their terms instead of ours which are typical of a democratic world.”
I wonder what you think of the way Ukraine is trying to ride out this crisis and eliminate terrorists on its own.
“Until this day, when the antiterrorist operation has been resumed, the Ukrainian government was not very active in doing its duty. I don’t know why. I can presume that people linked to Yulia Tymoshenko hold the key governmental offices. She is playing a multi-aspect game and is not interested in the presidential elections on May 25. The inaction that we have seen up to now may have something to do with this. Or this was caused by the weakness of the Ukrainian government, for some officials – rude as it may sound – have come from the street and have no proper experience of governmental work. Besides, we must also take into account that the situation is critical now. So, for this reason, officials should have still more experience to act adequately in the current situation. Indeed, there is a very difficult domestic situation in Ukraine, and we can see the old hostility between oligarchs. I think the Tymoshenko factor may be playing quite a real, albeit not the most important, role. The government’s inaction is perhaps the result of all these factors.”
Experts emphasize that Ukraine can hardly expect the EU to impose new sanctions on Russia. Does this mean that Ukrainians should rely on themselves only?
“You can’t possibly expect any military support from the EU. Nor can you expect any strong response in the shape of sanctions – not because they are ready to sell Ukraine out to Russia. I am absolutely sure this will not happen. The problem is that it is extremely difficult for the EU to agree on sanctions, especially in a crisis like this. Some EU countries strongly oppose any vigorous reaction to Russia for, above all, economic reasons.”
