Stability, a broad coalition, and cooperation between the president and the prime minister are the phrases that are most often heard from foreign diplomats and leading politicians on the eve of the early parliamentary election in Ukraine, slated for Sept. 30. Diplomats of leading Western countries express the wish that the next government will be formed as soon as possible and work in a stable fashion for at least one and a half years. Heads of foreign missions hope that this will be enough time for the Ukrainian government and parliament to resolve the problems that are hindering the influx of large Western investments to our country.
The assessment of the situation in Ukraine by the former president of Poland, Alexander Kwasniewski, is significant. Delivering a speech to the US Atlantic Council, entitled “The Electoral Drama in Poland, Ukraine, and Russia,” the Polish politician called the elections in all three countries Europe’s most important ones, and the Ukrainian election — the most interesting.
He said that the elections in Ukraine will hardly change the distribution of the political forces. In his opinion, each of the three leading blocs has considerable drawbacks. The Party of Regions cannot define its position on foreign policy. The Our Ukraine-People’s Self-Defense Bloc is limited to support from the western part of Ukraine. Speaking about the role of Yulia Tymoshenko’s party, Kwasniewski said that it lacks a creative approach. “It is extremely difficult, practically impossible to define this party as left-wing, right-wing, or social-democratic. It is not very creative in the sense of ideology, policy, or program for Ukraine,” Voice of America quotes ex-president of Poland as saying. At the same time Kwasniewski admitted that the Ukrainian parties’ dependence on regional support “means that the political and democratic system is very weak in Ukraine. Therefore, ideology, values, and programs usually have to play a greater role in the formation of political parties.”
Kwasniewski thinks that Ukrainian politicians should learn “to organize a certain level of cooperation and coexistence,” something that Europe has been doing for a long time and which Poland has already learned to do. This Polish politician, who often visits Ukraine, has reached the conclusion that cooperation between Yushchenko and Yanukovych may become a reasonable choice in achieving the main goals awaiting Ukraine.
Kwasniewski assesses the opportunity to form an “Orange” coalition after the elections as one in three, and he is gambling on cooperation between the president and the prime minister. “This is very hard to accept because there is a struggle between two important values systems here: democratic and to some extent undemocratic parties. But if you look at the main goals awaiting Ukraine — achieving stability, unification of east and west, integration into European structures, cooperation between the two parties, Yanukovych and Yushchenko’s, may be a reasonable choice,” Kwasniewski said. Earlier, another Polish politician, Marek Siwiec, vice president of the European Parliament, who has headed the European Parliament Delegation on relations with Ukraine for the last few years, spoke frankly about the creation of a coalition between the “orange” and “white-blues.”
Investors are looking forward to stability in Ukraine. Morgan Williams, head of the Ukraine-US Business Council, emphasizes this very clearly. “The international business community hopes that there will be a new government and certain stability before the next year begins. If 2008 will again be a year of political instability and election campaigns, government officials will not be able to pass all the necessary legislation, change rules and regulations, start to issue the Value-Added Tax on a regular basis, reform tax legislation, improve work in the area of export and import, move closer to the EU, get a free trade zone with the EU, and join the WTO. If they do not do all these things because of political wrangles, Ukraine will suffer economically. And the level of dissatisfaction in the international business community will increase,” he underlined.
