The latest edition of the tape scandal (a.k.a. Kuchmagate) poses a threat to the new government. Socialist Party (SPU) leader Oleksandr Moroz is planning to demand that the current Prosecutor-General be dismissed unless his office agrees to attach the recordings of ex-President Leonid Kuchma’s secret conversations to the “Gongadze case.” The SPU leader issued a number of ultimatums to this effect the other day in Silski visti, the de facto mouthpiece of his party. Mr. Moroz called former presidential bodyguard Major Mykola Melnychenko’s tapes a “Pandora’s box” that, if opened, could “put hundreds of Ukrainian politicians in the dock.” According to the Socialist leader, many politicians who are now part of President Yushchenko’s entourage fear that these audio recordings-more than 700 hours’ worth-will be made public. Mr. Moroz is convinced that “the following individuals mentioned on Melnychenko’s tapes may be held responsible, to differing extents, for what they said or were quoted as saying in Kuchma’s office: State Secretary of Ukraine Oleksandr Zinchenko, Minister for Emergencies David Zhvaniya, Verkhovna Rada Speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Petro Poroshenko, and some people’s deputies of Ukraine.” Moreover, Mr. Moroz warned that if Maj. Melnychenko’s tapes are not used as evidence, he would be the first to say that “Kuchmism is making a comeback,” a statement with alarming prospects.
Paradoxically, this is the position taken by the leader of a party that was given a number of key offices in the new government. Anyone who knows anything about the Ukrainian political reality will agree that allies cannot be criticized “just for the heck of it.” Lately Mr. Moroz has been dissociating himself from the current government. Just a week ago he gave some public recommendations to this country’s leadership about what should be done to ensure sustained development. Now he has issued a formidable challenge to the president’s team. Does this mean there is a split in the new leadership? The Day asked some political scientists to assess the impact of Melnychenko’s tapes on the current political situation.
COMMENTARIES
Kostiantyn MATVIYENKO, Gardaryka Corporation:
“Mr. Moroz does not have enough political clout to be able to significantly influence the situation in the government and parliament. I think his statement is another attempt to exert pressure on the president, the cabinet, and the parliamentary majority before the 2006 parliamentary election campaign. What is more, this pressure is becoming personal in nature. To put in mildly, Mr. Moroz’s attitude can hardly be called ethical. Besides, as Mr. Moroz’s clout continues to diminish, he is unable to influence the situation within the ruling circles in any essential way. On the contrary, this kind of behavior further complicates his already unenviable political situation.”
Vadym KARASIOV, director, Institute of Global Strategies:
“It is too early to say that there is a split in the system of government. This is probably a continuation of a game being played by different power groups, personalities, and the political and economic forces that stand behind them. Mr. Moroz’s attitude is not exactly unexpected. Since he is not a member of cabinet or other institutions of the new government, he is quite capable of making ‘oppositional inroads’ on certain figures in the new government. Moroz is undoubtedly preparing for the 2006 elections and is aware that if he runs for office on his own, he will be facing strong opposition in the center-left electoral and social areas. So right now, without undue reflections and without succumbing to post- election and post-revolutionary euphoria, he is meticulously studying the opposition elements of other political forces. He is employing a multicentric tactic. On the one hand, he signs an agreement with Yuliya Tymoshenko and Viktor Yushchenko, and on the other, he openly opposes the key figures in the new government. So the trouble is not in the split within the government but in the fact that from the very beginning the government did not rest on the same foundation but was comprised of diverse political forces, bits and pieces of the elections, and the revolution. Today, many of them are initiating a game of their own. This attests to the mosaic nature of the current government, its different interests and vectors, rather than a schism or a breakup.”
Oleksandr LYTVYNENKO, political scientist:
“It is obvious that Oleksandr Moroz is trying to position himself as an uncompromising fighter for a solution to the Gongadze case, to boost his own political ratings, and to reinforce his political bargaining power. I do not think this is a split in the government - this is just gossip, because a split has to be formalized in some way. So far, the ruling coalition, which is by no means monolithic and comprises members with contradictory interests, is still united by joint goals, first of all, victory in the 2006 elections. As to whether the Melnychenko tapes represent a danger to current Ukrainian politicians, I will say this: I am not a law expert to assess the possibility of attaching these tapes to the criminal case, but it seems to me that one must take procedural steps and bring the case to court rather than make political statements. Unless the case is thoroughly investigated and brought to court, it will remain a ‘Pandora’s box’ of Ukrainian politics.”
