The NRU (People’s Rukh of Ukraine-Udovenko) leadership, after deciding on September 8 to “attempt to consolidate an election block led by Viktor Yushchenko” actually tied their own hands, passing up a good chance to maneuver politically in the unpredictable situation pending the elections. Reducing the role of Ukraine’s second most influential party to that of a suitor humbly asking for someone’s hand in political marriage (even if that someone has extremely high popularity ratings) is evidence that the Rukh leaders are either unable or unwilling to take the initiative. The very next day after passing the resolution showed precisely where this stand could lead. Ivan Drach, first Rukh chairman who had witnessed its decay reach its peak in the early 1990s, addressed the leaders of both Rukh fragments, reminding them of the “old weapon,” starting with the tried and true subject of the Rukh’s role in winning Ukraine’s independence and ending by branding “the agents of the oligarchs.”
One could understand Viktor Yushchenko taking the floor after Ivan Drach. On the one hand, being the leader of a bloc made up of a reunited Rukh is quite an honor, the more so that Mr. Yushchenko has never been a member of either wing. On the other hand, while calling for Rukh leaders to take the helm, doing so standing behind other peoples’ backs, one cannot but notice the vicious brotherly grins of those frequenting the parliamentary auditorium, people who can really do only one thing: share positions on party rosters and jump down anyone’s throat to get the past the post. The appearance of such political desperadoes among Yushchenko’s entourage, particularly among the top five on the bloc’s electoral roll, can only damage the leader of Our Ukraine. What could the man say addressing those present, the supposedly united Rukh adherents, who wanted him as leader? Nothing apart from the usual high sounding clichйs, along with a suggestion that you had best unite first. Avoiding all specifics, Viktor Yushchenko left the Rukh gathering and will now try to keep clear of his troublesome pals and go it alone.
Is there really any way to actually unite? As usual, except for declarations, nothing much happened at the bilateral Rukh meeting. True, there were sober voices piercing the static. Those people were less rhetorical and pointed out two problems: (a) How were they to get closer to Yushchenko? and (b) How were they to fill the vacancies on all the election committees that could come Rukh’s way under the election bill? Following the hustle and bustle around the virtual throne of Our Ukraine is more repulsive than simply uninteresting. Election committees? There could be a point there. The proposed method of forming them entitles the eight winning parties and blocs (i.e., those that surmounted the 4% barrier in the previous elections) to have representatives. Naturally, UNR did not exist at the time, so without uniting with Rukh proper, Kostenko’s party will be left out in the campaign cold. And so Kostenko’s people are most concerned about the election committees. Yet this was not the only thing to catch one’s eye. Those who had tried but failed to seize power in Rukh back in 1999 were now among the most ardent supporters of its reunification. The fiasco of the new UNR scheme became even more obvious against the backdrop of Bohdan Boiko’s Rukh-3. It all looks very Gilbert and Sullivan, but it is real. Kostenko’s people prefer to remain silent about their “strong and fruitful” contacts with Yuliya Tymoshenko’s party; ditto their self- styled Joan of Arc who proved yet another flash in the pan.
On the one hand, the Rukh folks are prepared to actually unite, but only under Yushchenko. On the other, the former premier seems prepared to assume the leader’s role, provided they actually do unite, and in God-knows-what role with regard to other possible members of Our Ukraine. The pause, if too long, could result in both Rukh splinters simply winding up too late to prepare for the elections on their own if Yushchenko’s bloc never materializes. Then what will lie in the offing for both parties? In this sense, Kostenko’s people should do all the running and fussing, for without unity with Batkivshchyna (still holding) and Yushchenko’s compelling image they are sure to lose. Thus UNR is try to hold NRU tight, because the latter is a chance, slim as it may be, to survive. At the same time, Udovenko’s Rukh will have to draw up its roster without much ado, ducking Pynzenyk’s advances, for it is only a matter of days before the former vice premier finds himself covered with dirt courtesy of high quality compromising information from Germany. After that Rukh will be able to sit back and wait for political partners and allies to step forth and meet it halfway. This will be the easiest and yet most complicated option for Yushchenko, for his bloc will get into the parliament come what may, even if the parties making it up are totally unknown. This is on the one hand. On the other, there is a temptation to be at the head of something tangible, real, rather than keep the bloc afloat with just his own personal popularity. This might prompt the leader of Our Ukraine to take most unexpected political steps. In fact, Our Ukraine could just fade away. All Yushchenko has to do for this phantom to disappear is to remain silent, watching his potential allies grope in the dark.
