Party members are fleeing the Our Ukraine ship. As reported earlier, six people have quit the ranks of the NU-NS (Our Ukraine/People’s Self-Defense) on the heels of Viktor Baloha. This is probably the beginning of a large-scale exodus.
Not so long ago, Viktor Bondar, the head of Dnipropetrovsk oblast, publicly declared that he will most likely follow in the footsteps of these “renegades.” Last Wednesday, Borys Sylenkov, the head of the Kherson regional organization of the NU-NS, said he was quitting and urged other party members to follow suit. Finally, the head of the Kyiv Oblast Administration Vira Ulianchenko is also considering the possibility of withdrawing her NU-NS membership. When queried by journalists, she said: “Yes, I think this is absolutely possible. Most likely Messrs. Bondar and Sylenkov, along with Ms. Ulianchenko, will join the ranks of the new propresidential force.
Each passing day seems to add grist to the rumor mill about the changes to the coalition format. NU-NS faction member Oles Donii believes that this process may become informal: “...in other words, some of the members of Our Ukraine, the communists, and the Party of Regions may vote differently and constitute the required 226 votes... In this case, I think that the Party of Regions is in a subordinate position; it is being used. In this game it can be promised things and then receive nothing in return. I am not saying that Viktor Yanukovych has been promised the Speaker’s seat in the Verkhovna Rada. The point is that they must be incorporated into the next government to provide guarantees for the businesspeople backing them.”
There is only one undeniably positive aspect to the Our Ukraine saga: the balloons now flying over the parliament building are likely to burst. The reformatting phantom is the best argument for the Regionals to lift their siege. When this happens, all the problems will most likely come to the surface, and all signs of splits and rifts will quickly manifest themselves.
The Day asked its experts what is likely to happen to Our Ukraine and the coalition.
Viktor RADCHUK, Zhytomyr-based political scientist and campaign manager:
The recent departure of several noted NS-NU members leads one to assume that the process is being controlled by a center, in this case presumably the Presidential Secretariat. There are reasons to believe this assumption, including Viktor Baloha, who was the first to quit. Apparently, the political forces staking on Viktor Yushchenko as their leader in the next presidential campaign have begun preparing for it. I believe that this departure means the launch of the presidential campaign, except that I’m afraid it could also mean a false start. On the other hand, these forces have grounds for such early preparations, considering that the NS-NU has turned out to be an imperfect political project. Above all, it is incomplete for a number of reasons. A single party based on the people who entered the campaign bloc has not been formed, and so far it looks as though there will never be such a party.
However, in view of the separate existence of such Our Ukraine-People’s Self-Defense components as Rukh, Pora, Sobor, Christian Democratic Union, and most of the others, their prospects look grim. At the same time, the possibilities of a hypothetical party of bloc that may be formed on the basis of those that have quit — or are quitting — the NU-NS — appear rather ambiguous.
Obviously, it will face the same problem because it will have inherited Our Ukraine’s ambiguous ideology. As regards the ruling coalition, it will have to stick to the current scenario, dramatic situation notwithstanding. Here President Yushchenko will have the final say, including on the fate of the NU-NS. Those MPs who have quit will be followed by at least another five, although I believe that the current coalition will remain intact for some time. The president will be the only one responsible for its collapse. I don’t think that those who are leaving the NU-NS ranks are bringing this collapse closer. Yushchenko can do this.
Also, it is not an established fact that the new political force that may take shape with Baloha’s blessings will support the current head of state in the next elections If the current leader of the Socialist Party notices that Yushchenko’s position is weakening, he may stake on another candidate. It is quite feasible to expect a new presidential candidate, someone who has not made this intention clear so far. I think that the new (so far hypothetical) party will be formed not only from among NU-NS people. It will include members of the Party of Regions, and there are indications that support this assumption. It is safe to assume that this force will put the “administrative resource” to the best use. However, all this is not likely to improve its possible result by more than 10 percent.
An important aspect is the session of the NU-NS Political Council that will be held in early March, where some participants may call for establishing a single NU-NS-based party. So far the electorate has not heard any clearly formulated, understandable statements from Baloha, Bilozir, and others, explaining their departure from the party.
Hryhorii HRYN, historian:
From the very outset, the Our Ukraine-People’s Self-Defense Party was stillborn, which is clear today, because this was a project made exclusively for the president precisely at the point when the president’s ratings were the highest, when a number of turncoat politicians joined this party just so they could stay close to the government, next to the “feed trough.” Now that the ratings of this party — and the entire Our Ukraine-People’s Self- Defense — are dropping, it is only natural for these politicians to find a place in the sun elsewhere, as close to those in power as possible. If a new party is established on the basis of these defectors, it is not likely to prove a good and powerful force in the next presidential elections: there is too little time for that. Also, their reputation as individuals who lack definite political principles will not allow them to win significant support from voters.
In general, the creation of a new project, a kind of special-interest club, is quite possible. It is likely to be joined by similar opportunistically- minded politicians representing other political forces, including the BYuT and the Party of Regions. This party, however, will take part in the next parliamentary elections — provided, of course, that no early elections are called.
It has long been clear that Our Ukraine will fall apart from inside. It is made up of too many different forces that have not been able to unite as a single team over the past three or four years. Therefore, this process is perfectly understandable.
As for the possible collapse of the coalition, personally I still don’t believe that the coalition can be simply reformatted. The thing is that this will make everybody suffer heavy losses along electoral lines, including Our Ukraine and the Party of Regions — except the BYuT. Therefore, they are not likely to do this now. This may become a possibility during the next parliamentary elections, when the new party will have found a more serious force, a more ramified system. Then the Party of Regions, to whom liberal values are close to its heart, may go for a broad coalition. Right now, this does not serve anyone’s interest.
Ihor LOSEV, associate professor, Department of Cultural Studies, National University of Kyiv Mohyla Academy:
My forecast concerning Our Ukraine is very grim. I’m afraid that it will simply fall apart. Some MPs may join the new structure, the one being actively prepared by Mr. Baloha. Others — and I think this is primarily true of the People’s Self-Defense — will side with Yulia Tymoshenko. The prospects for the Ukrainian Right Wing (Ukrainska pravytsia) also look rather dramatic. Where will they go? Needless to say, they won’t come under Baloha, nor are they inclined to side with Tymoshenko. In other words, their fate is not enviable.
Mr. Baloha will put together another project, like the infamous “For a United Ukraine.” The fate of this political force is also far from enviable. Another thing is that, in the end, the consequences will be sad for the president. Even now it is obvious that the relations between the president and Baloha are becoming similar to those between Dmytro Tabachnyk and Leonid Kuchma in the latter’s first presidential term. Most importantly, this will have a depressing effect on the whole country.
As for the coalition, it is understandable that the five former Our Ukraine members are not willing to leave the faction; it’s too early. What baffles me is the way they will vote. There is every indication that Mr. Baloha is looking forward to reaching a consensus with the Donetsk people. He is very active along these lines, but it is too early. I guess the defectors won’t be taking active steps in the nearest future. They will be “at home among strangers and strangers at home.” They will vote as instructed by their senior comrades, the members of the Presidential Secretariat.
I believe that the second Yushchenko vs. Tymoshenko round may have even worse consequences than the 2005 conflict.
Oleksandr DERHACHOV, political scientist and senior research associate at the Institute of Political and Ethnic Studies at the Academy of Sciences of Ukraine:
Let’s go through things in order. First, Our Ukraine is not structurally homogeneous enough to be handled administratively. Second, there are too many people who are relatively self-sufficient and are laying claim to their own, special roles. Third, this is a structure with its own democratic traditions, inasmuch as one can speak of them in the Ukrainian political environment.
Our Ukraine has always lived openly, never concealing its problems. So many people are under the impression that this force is not viable. It isn’t, but only according to the old canons. There have been people who wanted to get it under control so that they could manipulate everybody and introduce a kind of centralism. Since our president refused to head the party, the question is how to run this party, period. No one could take the president’s place.
In fact, the people who started quitting Our Ukraine were prepared to side with a more traditional, administratively-controlled structure. Baloha will create one. There may appear a sufficient number of more or less noted figures who will form certain executive bodies. Another thing is whether this party will have enough potential strength to formulate some ideas.
Will the remaining membership be able to restore the health of Our Ukraine? That’s a difficult question. On the one hand, it will be easier for them because there will be a more homogeneous mass of representatives of certain values, among them supporters of inner-party democracy. Will they be able to organize themselves? We have many examples of a democracy that looks attractive, while its effectiveness is called into question in many respects.
Our Ukraine has a new chance, one that can be used by young but known politicians. We’ll see whether they can reach an understanding if “Baloha’s people” are not there.
As regards the coalition, nothing seems to be changing formally, but it is becoming progressively less effective. Whereas before it was maintained with arithmetically precise figures, but now there is a small but influential group forming inside Our Ukraine, which may bargain with their votes at a very high price.
Volodymyr PRYTULA , chairman of the Crimean Committee on Monitoring Press Freedom:
I believe that the process of Our Ukraine’s so-called collapse may follow two scenarios. If the president has really decided to quit this political force (and this is what it looks like from the outside), then we do need a new political force. But this is a complicated option because starting up a new political force under our present conditions is a task easier said than done, let alone completely or on the proper level. On the other hand, there is a simple option, where the leaders of the Presidential Secretariat use unconventional methods to intimidate the young leaders of Our Ukraine who have wrenched themselves slightly free of the president’s control. Yet when it comes to Our Ukraine’s breakup, two structures are likely to emerge from the debris. The first one will be a propresidential party, including some OU members who are criticizing its current course, and part of the old powerful nomenklatura, possibly Kuchma’s, which is now Yushchenko-oriented. Of course, it will be a typical party of power that will be able to play a certain role in the life of Ukraine, like all its previous counterparts.
Others will side with Tymoshenko and join the BYuT, of course. This is patently obvious, especially since Mrs. Tymoshenko has one of the best chances of being elected president. That is why the pragmatic part of Our Ukraine, which will feel that it has been abandoned and has always oriented itself on the prospect of power, will cross over to the BYuT. Therefore, it turns out that with the collapse of Our Ukraine a part of this force will join Tymoshenko, but this process cannot be interpreted so unequivocally at this stage. Naturally, such “subtractions” may be welcomed in eastern and central Ukraine, which is why electoral support may increase for the president and his new force, which in their opinion will be “cleansed” of some of BYuT’s populism.
