Chairman and founder of American research center Stratfor, which has become a leader in global intelligence and geopolitical forecasts, George Friedman is well known in expert circles and beyond. He is the author of the bestseller The Next Decade and the Next 100 Years which has correctly predicted the decline of the EU and growing tensions between Russia and the West as well as fight between them over Ukraine and neighboring countries. Friedman also authored other books on warfare and intelligence, devoted to America’s secret war and the future of war and intelligence. Thus, participants of the International Conference on Security GLOBSEC 2014 eagerly awaited a chance to talk to him.
Friedman criticized the EU for its disunity and a lack of direction troubling this large organization. “If there is a worst-case scenario, it will come to pass, especially in the case of Eastern Europe. I lack the EU-level patience, because members of this organization think differently,” he said. The expert also criticized the NATO’s policies, calling this military-political bloc a fantastic venue for cocktail parties in Brussels that has to re-evaluate its role in the world order after the Crimean crisis. “NATO does not exist as an alliance anymore,” he said.
According to Friedman, the US always comes late to the conflict, but then influences it mightily. “Our way of doing things is characterized by two features. Firstly, we dislike taking risks and running costs, and secondly, we try to wait it out till the last moment, assuming that we are not wanted by others,” he explained. The expert added that the First and Second World Wars exemplified that attitude.
It is clear that everyone expected Friedman’s assessment of Russia’s actions and what can stop the Russian aggression against Ukraine. “The loss of Ukraine is a catastrophe for Russia. Vladimir Putin sees his loss of the pro-Russian government in Ukraine as a catastrophe. No Russian leader accepts the integration of Ukraine into the EU and NATO,” the US analyst stressed.
However, he noted that Russia’s strength is temporary, caused by weakness of its neighbors. It all depends on the price of oil. Should the US revolutionize the oil industry, and China reduce its oil consumption, the situation in Russia will change dramatically. The 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union came as a result of having a non-functional government, and this weakness has not gone away. “Russia seems to be strong because its neighbors are weak I do not know whether Russia will be aggressive, but if it is, we will see the second stage of the collapse of Russia,” Friedman said.
On the other hand, he said, the West can do without Ukraine, but it also wants Ukraine to be at least pro-Western.
“There was no battle for Ukraine before,” the expert continued, “but it happened after the Orange Revolution, even if fought with means different from what we are seeing now. We are now engulfed by something more than just a battle for Ukraine, and the West’s response to the actions of the Ukrainian government is seen by Russia as a direct threat to its own interests.”
At a press conference, Friedman evaded a concrete answer to The Day’s question about likely outcome and timing of the end of the Ukrainian crisis.
“I do not think it will end quickly, and if it does, it will restart, since this is a battle of survival for Russia, and at the same time it is an important issue for Europe and the terrible crisis for the Ukrainian people and its future. How will it all end? I think that at some point, Russia will overstrain itself to the point of collapse, while Ukraine may avoid this fate. It is questionable, though,” the American expert told us.
According to him, Belarus will also be a battleground. “If Ukraine’s pro-Western government will stay in power, and taking into account that the NATO is already to the west of Belarus, it is very difficult to say how the Lukashenko regime can survive,” the analyst said. “In this case, Smolensk, which was the center of the Russian Empire, becomes a Russian frontier town. It shows how vulnerable Russia has become. Using Belarus, it can project force against Poland and other neighbors which is an important element of Russian strategy,” Friedman explained the importance of Belarus to Russia.
Regarding the possible scenarios and Russia’s actions concerning Ukraine, Friedman said: “The best way to keep Ukraine dependent is to raise the price of gas which Russia is doing already. Another way is to overthrow its current government. Ukraine’s domestic problems are caused by the coalition’s ineffectiveness which makes for a permanently unstable situation in Ukraine. This is the reason why Russia decided not to invade, but do everything to have an easily manipulated government in Ukraine. The question is not so much the need for a responsible government to appear as it is the financial problem. The West is not going to pay off Ukraine’s debts, and the IMF is not going to save the Ukrainian economy. Russia can do it, but it will request subordination as the price of its assistance. The Ukrainian people must make a choice. The Russians are ready to offer any solution from which they will benefit.
Kyiv has been experiencing a political crisis for years which is still going strong. I think if it could not be ended a few years ago, how could it be done tomorrow?”
The American expert criticized the West’s sanctions policy toward Russia. “Sanctions are meaningless and useless. They mean that you do not want to do anything. Telling Sergey Lavrov, say, that he cannot travel to the US is hardly an effective strategy,” he said. He believes instead that it is necessary to take military commitments, which includes a detailed study of what can be done.
Friedman also evaluated recent Visegrad Group initiatives to create a battle group. In his view, the Poles are serious about security, the Slovaks are indifferent on it, the Hungarians are ready to make a deal with anyone, and the Czechs think they are Germans.
According to experts, it is necessary to understand the position of Germany in this situation, as it is Germany that has to lead Europe. If Germany does not take lead, the Eastern European countries have a choice. They can make a deal with Russia or resist it. There are arguments for each option, except that the Hungarians, Czechs, and Slovaks remember what it means to be subdued by Russia. To avoid this, they must enter into an alliance with the US, and to involve the US, they need to make commitments, spend money, build up their militaries, and so on.
On the other hand, Friedman said that if the US wants to be involved, it will need an ally, that is, Germany, where the US troops are stationed. Now the Eastern European countries want a massive US support, and Germany is where they can find it. “This psychological shift has to take place,” he said. “I have no doubt that it will, but the next action in this act has to take place in Berlin. If the Germans do nothing, it still means that they are doing something.”
The American expert drew attention to Poland, which is now taking a lead in the region. “It not only works with Sweden and Ukraine, but puts pressure on other countries to go in a certain direction, too. What is the most interesting, its stance is different from Germany’s. The idea of Poland and Germany which have a close relationship has begun to collapse and is now in a somewhat precarious state. We can see that Poland has taken the lead and the question is how far it will go,” Friedman said.
We can agree with many of the findings of the American expert who often visits Europe and whose parents come from this region. We do not want, though, to see his outlook on Ukraine fit into the formula: if there is a worst-case scenario, it will come to pass.
