The military aspects of retreat from the airport, and absence of external support still require a detailed analysis by experts. At the moment one thing is clear: Ukraine’s military and strategic position has seriously worsened. It will result in a more complex diplomatic exposition. This was already revealed in resolutions made at the “Normandy format” foreign ministers’ meeting in Berlin. The Ukrainian minister virtually had to agree with what Putin offered in his letter to President Poroshenko. Heavy armaments will be moved away from the actual frontline, that is, on the conditions which are not favorable for Ukrainian troops. Moreover, the loss of territory in such scenario is obvious.
The next aspect is psychological. Ukraine’s army is suffering humiliating defeats. Primarily, this is happening not because of the lack of armament and rear supplies, even though these factors are present, but because of the outdated system of command and units control. And finally, because of the incompetence of higher commanders, who are bound by the need to fit in political guidelines instead of performing combat tasks.
Our military problems lie first and foremost in the political and strategic planes. President Poroshenko publicly stated that there is no military solution to the Donbas problem. This seems to be true formally, but actually it is an extremely dangerous tendency, which disarms the country in the strategic sense and strips the army of a will to victory. If there is no military solution, what is the point of losing lives of soldiers who are defending our country, if we will not win anyway? Shifting the focus to the diplomatic settling of the conflict and decreasing the role of the military compound makes Ukraine’s position at the negotiations a fortiori defective. And Putin will not hesitate to make use of that.
Let us take a look from the standpoint of our partner allies. They support us diplomatically as much as they can. However, their support has quite specific and clear limits. If Ukraine’s army and government are incapable of providing defense, if the command is incompetent, and the political leadership cannot mobilize the country to fight the aggression back, we arrive at very disappointing conclusions.
Firstly, if Ukraine is forced to fulfill Moscow’s demands in some way, real prospects of falling under Russia’s influence appear. As a result, the danger of serious change of political course will emerge.
Secondly, doubts as for further aid, financial one in particular, emerge from the previous conclusion.
Thirdly, positions of that part of European officials who demand the revision of sanctions or their complete lifting and more orientation towards cooperation with Russia will be reinforced. This possibility should not be underestimated. At the moment, this is mostly a marginal part of European politics, but elections in Germany and France are close, and their results can disturb us greatly.
Fourthly, as a continuation of the previous conclusion, military misfortunes of the Ukrainian army strengthen the position of the most aggressive part of the Russian ruling circles. It lies beyond doubt that Putin’s personal rating will grow with all political consequences that will follow.
Fifthly, Russian agents within Ukraine will activate too. Firstly, this applies to opposition members from the former Party of Regions. There are also such individuals in the ruling coalition. The latter have been quiet until recently, but now they will surely become more confident.
It is too early to state this, but a clear sense of reanimation of the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk is appearing. Bolsheviks, too, talked about a break back then, but nothing good came out of it. For some reason, our commander-in-chief pays very little attention to the staff of the higher command. We have too many office generals and very few real ones, who were tested in battles. It is time to think about this. The country and the army do not want a new Brest, even if it is called Minsk Accords. If the government does not understand this, the questions about the government self arise.
After losing Singapore in 1942, Churchill decided to resign. The king did not agree, and after that the prime minister said his famous phrase: “You can lose all battles, except for the last one!” All is left is to determine which one is the last one.
