This is the first time in 20 years that citizens of Moldova can elect the president by a nationwide vote. The election race triggered debates not so much about candidates as about geopolitical orientation and the choice of values. The pro-Russian politician Igor Dodon, leader of the Party of Socialists (PSRM), was a step away from victory in the first round, gaining 48.6 percent of the votes. Trailing behind him with a little more than 38 percent was Maia Sandu, leader of the Action and Solidarity party that prefers the Western vector of development. Now the two candidates will compete in the runoff to be held on November 13.
The Day got in touch with Moldova’s second president Petru LUCINSCHI to ask him about tendencies in Moldovan politics and electoral forecasts. He ruled the country in the last years of the “Soviet empire” as first secretary of the Central Committee of Moldova’s Communist Party, then as speaker of the Moldovan parliament, and as president in 1996-2011. It is Lucinschi who initiated Moldova’s distancing from the CIS and turning towards Europe.
“THE AUTHORITIES HAVE BEEN EXACERBATING THE OLD PROBLEMS OF CORRUPTION AND NEPOTISM IN ALL THIS PERIOD”
Why do you think pro-Russian views prevail in Moldova in spite of the conflict in Transnistria and the invasion of Ukraine?
“Firstly, it is the common problem of a number of post-Soviet republics – the mentality on which the long years of being part of the USSR have left an imprint. The active part of society, which are taking part in these elections, had the peak of their earning capacity in the 1970s-1990s, and they share an illusory idea that those times and social realities can be brought back. Of course, they are rationally aware that there is no Soviet Union and a totally different international context, particularly in our region, has come up. Secondly, it is the composition of the population by force of historical factors. Moldova is a very multiethnic state, with some ethnic groups having been formed for hundreds of years. Way back in the times of tsarist Russia, when a railroad was built, Gagauz people, Bulgarians, and Old Believers came to settle here. There are a lot of Russians, who found themselves here contrary to their own will, and Ukrainians who came here in search of better lands. It is therefore a motley population, and many still think that everybody should speak in the Russian language. It is difficult to persuade them to learn the language of the county they live in. Thirdly, it is economic circumstances. A lot of our citizens work in Russia – especially many of them went there before the current situation in Ukraine. The market is also Russian-oriented to a large extent. Many young and active people have gone abroad, and those who remained behind are elderly persons – mostly in villages because Moldova is a rural republic. This part of society believes in nicely-worded promises and is easy to manipulate.”
Moldova has had 25 years to prove its European choice with concrete steps. Why have politicians not done so?
“Institutionally, out of almost all the post-Soviet countries, Moldova is the closest to Europe. The Association Agreement was signed, and visas were abolished. Europe has heavily invested and launched a very large number of projects in Moldova – almost every village can receive 10 to 30 thousand dollars to renovate a daycare facility, solve an irrigation problem, etc. About 95 percent of small- and medium-scale farmsteads are involved in these projects. Also, a lot of our citizens work in Europe.
“But inside the country, the authorities have been exacerbating the old problems of corruption and nepotism in practically all these years. This disappointed people – we seem to be heading for Europe, but nothing is changing. The high-profile scandal about embezzling a billion from a state-run bank has finally disoriented people. All this was reduced to accusing the West of being unable to influence the situation, although these are our domestic problems. As a result, the achieved progress was blemished with domestic politics. But it is a key thing – no matter where we are moving to, all the mechanisms and system of government must satisfy people. So people believed in the eastern vector on the wave of disappointment, and it is very difficult to explain to them that they are wrong! There are only two ways to rove this – by real figures or by experience. I’ve seen over and over again that even experience does not teach people. The question is: how many times should we go through the same? The communists have already won in Moldova before. They promised to bring back sausage at 2.20 a kilo, but what has changed? Russia’s decision to impose a temporary embargo on the import of Moldovan goods has caused acute tension because the public is afraid of losing the Russian market.”
“IT IS IMPORTANT TO MOBILIZE PRO-EUROPEAN-MINDED PEOPLE”
What do you think can be expected from the second round? Will Maia Sandu manage to mobilize her electorate?
“In Moldova, the second round is always more active than the first one. It is also my case, when I had 28 percent of votes in the first round against 38 percent for Mircea Snegur – I eventually won. Over all the past 25 years, whenever a left-wing representative and a European-minded candidate competed in the runoff, the latter won.
“The countryside was far more active now than the capital. And the turnout of young people aged 18 to 25 was a mere 10 percent. So it is necessary to mobilize this part of society and the Moldovans abroad and to explain to the people that populism will produce no good. There is a hope that Sandu will win.”
The London-based Professor Andrew Wilson has a concept of “Kremlin towers.” Is Moldova running the risk of becoming Putin’s stronghold in Europe?
“The overall mood of people is unambiguously pro-European, and I do not think that Moldova will change its value-related orientation. There really is certain cyclicity of rollbacks in electoral preferences. We were clearly oriented to Europe in the first 10 years. Then the communists came and turned to the east. But this didn’t work, and 70 percent of the people regained their pro-EU sentiments. In the past six years, voters have been seeking new decisions again, largely due to some misdeeds of the current authorities and numerous instances of corruption and embezzlement. But this disappointment is about some concrete instances, not about the European choice as a whole.”
What course may the development take in case Dodon is elected president? Will he manage to fulfill his promise to terminate the Association Agreement and join the Customs Union with Russia, or will this remain a promise?
“It will be curious to see Dodon evading the fulfillment of promises in case of his victory. The president has very limited leverage, and Moldova won’t do without European support. What can substitute more than 900 projects in the provinces? Dodon’s statements are cheap populism in order to come to power. Unfortunately, our people vote not by their brains but under the influence of emotions, all the more so in the countryside.”
“ONLY A SUCCESSFUL AND REFORMED MOLDOVA WILL BE ABLE TO REGAIN TRANSNISTRIA”
The Transnistrian conflict has long been in a frozen condition. But there is an opinion that if Moldova is to join the EU at a certain time, Transnistria can be destabilized at any moment for the purpose of manipulation. Is there a plan of diplomatic actions or integration with respect to these territories?
“The truth is that we have got accustomed in these years to living without Transnistria. At the same time, many understand that this conflict must be stopped sooner or later, and the republic should develop within its previous borders. There is some money in Moldova’s budget for Transnistria, and the EU is also trying to extend its projects to this territory. But financial infusions from Russia are much more abundant – it gives them money, pays out pensions, and exempts them from paying for gas. What’s the point of doing so? To pose a threat to Chisinau? But this won’t divert Moldova from the path to the European Union. To set up a military base there? It is impossible owing to the situation in Ukraine. It seems to me that a territory with an uncertain status is of benefit to many – smuggling, producing whatever you want, and so on. They also wanted to establish this kind of uncontrolled madness in the Donbas, but Ukraine has said firmly that this won’t happen.
“Moldova has no alternative to a peaceful way. I am convinced that if the living standards in our state were qualitatively higher, the conflict would be resolved much faster. When we are able to offer something to Transnistria and create better conditions, there will be success. I see no other way than contacting people. Any elections and referendums are ruled out, for Moldova will not recognize them. As is in the case of the Donbas, normal expression of popular will is impossible under unequal conditions. The future of the Transnistrian conflict depends on the international situation in the region and on reforms in Moldova itself.”
Dodon suggests federalization of Moldova, an idea that Russia endorses. It is a controversial suggestion – for example, Gagauzia is a difficult region with strong pro-Russian sentiments. Do you think this reform is useful for Moldova?
“I wouldn’t make a scary movie out of federalization, but Moldova is surely unprepared for this. Federalization may set off such an explosion of separatism throughout our little country that it is awful even to imagine. Unfortunately, we are not Switzerland. This step needs adequate preparatory work and a predictable relationship between the center and the subjects of the federation. But it is on the level of propaganda and populism, no more than this.”
“I AM PINNING MY HOPES ON THE LEVERS OF RESTRAINING THE OLIGARCHIC ORDER”
It’s no secret that the oligarch Plahotniuc wields a great deal of clout in the political system of Moldova. When did he become so influential, and will the new president be able to counterbalance him?
“He struck root in the economic life long ago and is doing business at state-run enterprises. He is a member of the party now in power, and he is actively funding it. He is not a public person but still coordinates the parliamentary majority. Very much has been ascribed to him, Plahotniuc himself also makes odious statements. He wanted to become the prime minister under that system but failed to do so. The president has limited powers, but he can establish the levers of checks and balances. There should emerge a fulcrum that does not think and act the way it is being done now under the oligarchic order.”
