As should be clear from Ambassador Pifer's article on certification,
US Secretary of State Albright might not be able to certify Ukraine's "progress"
on the road to reform. In fact, one way to interpret the diplomat's response
is to prepare Ukrainian public opinion for just such an eventuality. After
all, it is difficult to disagree with World Bank representative Gregory
Jedrzejczak, who points out that there simply has not been any reform,
or with Oleksiy Plotnykov, who points out basically the same thing: when
it comes to reform, the Kuchma Administration talks a good game and does
the opposite.
A few things have become clear. The Ukrainian authorities will promise
anyone anything to get money and break its word without blinking an eye.
Moreover, the West, which wants a viable and stable Ukraine in its own
interests, now understands this and is beginning to act accordingly. This
poses those interested in helping Ukraine a fundamental dilemma: when does
help stop helping and becomes simply a subsidy for a corrupt system that
is nonviable in principle?
Nobody has a good answer to that one. The Ukrainian state has dug itself
into such a hole that nobody in authority has the least idea of how to
get out. Should the loans and foreign aid stop, the country would almost
immediately be on its knees. In addition, those making the decisions, schooled
in Soviet political economy, often have no idea of Western economic scholarship,
how the outside world economy really works, or even why Ukraine has to
adapt to that economic system. Combine this with a wavering President who
usually sides with whomever he heard last, and the situation becomes clearer.
The outside world simply cannot and will not subsidize such aimless drifting
forever.
