The Social Study Agency (ASD) recently carried out an all-Ukrainian poll entitled “The Need in a New Political Force in the Context of Electoral Preferences of Ukraine’s Population.” The survey was carried out on March 9–14, 2009, before the Ternopil election. Expectedly, the campaign favorites were Party of Regions heavyweights (19.2 percent) and BYuT (15.4 percent), although their respective ratings had noticeably lowered. On the other head, several political forces confidently surmounted the three-percent threshold: the Yatseniuk bloc (6.9 percent), the Lytvyn bloc (5.2 percent), CPU (3.4 percent), and For Ukraine (3.2 percent). ASD President Valerii Zahorodniuk says the Yatseniuk bloc and Viacheslav Kyrylenko’s For Ukraine can aspire to become this new political force.
In fact, this poll has produced nothing unexpected. Experts have long been saying that Ukrainian society badly needs new [political] leaders. The election in Ternopil is eloquent proof of this fact. However, one thing is clearly apparent: all new leaders are relying on the Orange electorate. Eastern Ukraine remains entirely under Yanukovych’s control. How come none of the younger and smarter politicians seem interested in addressing the electorate in Ukraine’s southern and eastern regions? The political analyst Vadym Karasiov has answered these and other questions in his interview with The Day.
Some experts describe the Ternopil election as a turning point in Ukraine’s most recent history. Do you agree?
“This is not yet a turning point. It’s like a bone fracture when it’s too early to use the cast. This election has revealed new trends, but once again, it isn’t a turning point. So far, it is a blueprint for the future party alliances and moves. First, western Ukraine is nominating new [political] leaders. This is the initial stage. Whether they become nationwide leaders is another story. Second, the party and political system is undergoing significant transformations in western Ukraine. Our Ukraine lost its monopoly in 2006, and so did BYuT in 2009, in terms electoral representation in western Ukraine. This, in turn, may well torpedo the BYuT–PR bipartisan configuration. At present, forming mega-coalitions is highly questionable.”
Is this good or bad for Ukraine?
“This is great for Ukraine. Such an alliance would be dangerous not because they could usurp political power or amend the Constitution as they saw fit. If the PR and BYuT formed a coalition, this would be proof that Ukraine’s party center had moved in the direction of Russia. As it was, the Ternopil electorate in western Ukraine showed no response to this [challenge]. Instead, the voters responded to the bipartisan option, thereby blurring the political situation in western Ukraine. The BYuT has lost its electoral monopoly there, as did Our Ukraine.”
What trends were demonstrated by the Ternopil election?
“That election campaign demonstrated that old political movements like the Rukh and the political forces that had been captured by the BYuT’s gravitational field were no longer popular and that their public confidence ratings were dropping.
New politicians and new parties were breaking surface. In fact, the United Center was also among the winners in Ternopil, whether you like it or not.”
You must be aware that the voters cast their ballots for the governor, who topped the United Center’s slate.
“Indeed. This did play a role, although you will have to agree that the new governor is a young and well-educated man; he is considerate and pragmatic and yet has a firm national stand. It’s like a new national democratic brand with additional national pragmatism. There are also Tiahnybok’s new nationalists, but I have many questions about the evolution of this political force. Had Yatseniuk taken part in the election, the Svoboda’s results would have been much more modest.”
Suppose we use the Ternopil experience and model early parliamentary elections for, says, this coming summer. What do you think the outcome would be?
“The Party of Regions would be proudly in the lead as compared to the lesser political forces. The BYuT would be among these smaller forces; they wouldn’t be likely to collect as many votes as in 2007. Also, Yatseniuk’s bloc and Kyrylenko’s For Ukraine would also be in this group. I do not rule out the possibility of the United Center, the Communists, and the Lytvyn bloc would also get some seats in parliament.
“In this case we would have a more fragmented and decentralized Ukrainian parliament; this would make it possible for the Verkhovna Rada to become more flexible and allow it not to reduce Ukrainian politics to the Yushchenko-Tymoshenko-Yanukovych conflicting triangle.
“The important result of the Ternopil election is the deconcentration of Ukraine’s party and political system. Thus far this has been possible owing to a shift in political preferences in western Ukraine and the BYuT’s loss of its political monopoly there.”
Do you think that politicians like Tiahnybok, Yatseniuk, and Kyrylenko are likely to emerge in eastern Ukraine before long? Why does the Party of Regions remain dominant in southeastern Ukraine?
“First, the Party of Regions is in opposition. What kind of opposition it is in is a different story. This party is not in power and it bears no responsibility for the ongoing crisis. Second, the Party of Regions is a rather powerful alliance of businessmen, regional elites, bureaucrats, and politicians, where the risk of an inner split is reduced to a minimum. Viktor Yanukovych’s high ratings are a guarantee against such rift.
“Why does Yanukovych have no rivals? Because in eastern Ukraine there has been neither ‘enchantment’ nor ‘disenchantment’. The blue-and-white party lost the 2004 presidential election, so no one in eastern Ukraine expected anything from the Orange revolution. No one there had the post-election euphoria; these people operated in a totally different emotional mode.
“What concerns the Orange bloc, it became a political battlefield and started breaking apart. Our Ukraine is in a state of recession. People in western Ukraine say that Tymoshenko is waging an ambiguous policy in regard to Moscow; they have started looking for other politicians in the Orange camp. Why? Because they had their expectations and experienced disillusionments after the Orange revolution — something that has never happened in eastern Ukraine.”
Does this mean that Yanukovych will reign supreme in eastern Ukraine forever?
“I would describe this as temporary solitude. It will end after 2010 anyway. Yanukovych may win the next presidential campaign, for example.”
Is this an actual possibility? He seems to be using all of his electorate in the first round.
“Absolutely, yet we are discussing the most favorable scenario for the Party of Regions and Yanukovych. Suppose he wins the election. What happens next? The Kliuiev, Akhmetov, and Firtash groups will immediately step in. They need Yanukovych now as a battering ram on their way to the presidential Olympus.
“If and when he gets there, the Party of Regions will suffer the same lot as Our Ukraine. New leaders will appear. Then they will start fighting for control over the party. Isn’t this what has been happening with Our Ukraine? The problem with Our Ukraine is that after Yushchenko became President, his Parteigenossen started figuring out how to get this party privatized to suit their own interest, so they would be able to act as intermediaries between the head of state and the party. Now, should Yanukovych lose the presidential game, the Party of Regions will start looking for a place in the new political situation. This will trigger intensive and complicated realignments, both within the Party of Regions and in the Ukraine’s entire political community.”
How do you feel about the situation with the Orange bloc?
“In fact, I find its dynamics quite positive.”
Would you please explain?
“Our Ukraine was formed in 2002 to carry out certain tasks. These tasks have been fulfilled. Apparently, the BYuT won’t be able to carry out their tasks; it is very doubtful that Yulia Tymoshenko will win this presidential campaign. Like I said, the BYuT will follow in Our Ukraine’s footsteps. This is proof that our party system has yet to become fixed; now it is relatively fluid, just like our life and interests.”
