Nicolas Maduro, heir of the late president Hugo Chavez, as was expected, won the presidential elections in Venezuela with the support of 50.7 percent of voters. Surprisingly, the opposition candidate Henrique Capriles lost only by 1.5 percent. The Election Commission announced the results and stated that the results are “not subject to change.” By the way, in October 2012 the gap between the opposition candidate and Chavez was 20 percent in favor of the latter.
The opposition accused Maduro of fraud and demands 100 percent recount of the votes. However, Maduro has already promised to revise the vote and urged the opposition to “work together” for the good of the country. The Inauguration of the newly elected president, who will serve for six years, will take place on April 19.
Oleksandra KOVALIOVA, Ph.D. in Political Studies at the Department of Trans-Atlantic Studies of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations attached to the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, told The Day:
“There still remains a big question whether Maduro will be able to remain in power for a long period of time. His victory is only 1.5 percent. The opposition candidate Capriles has already declared that he would not recognize the election results. Opposition demands a recount, 100 percent recount. By the Venezuelan Law, in cases like that only 54 percent of votes are recounted. This has, in fact, created a reason for destabilization in the country. This would be the worst option. If Maduro would have won by a bigger margin, the opposition would probably reconcile. But even a few hours prior to this Capriles wrote on his Twitter page that ‘the authorities rig the elections and people should be ready for this!’ Therefore, the opposition is not going to give up. It would do whatever it takes to gain the power. The stake is very high – oil.
“In his campaign speeches Maduro stressed that he would continue the policy of Chavez. This can be said for sure concerning the country’s relations with Cuba, Iran, Belarus, and Russia.
“What concerns the domestic policy, there is not quite pleasant situation in Venezuelan economy, even though it is not critical yet. Venezuela’s economy is 90 percent dependent on oil sales. Therefore, the main task of the successor to Chavez will be economic diversification and the development of other industries. There are certain doubts whether Maduro’s policy will be effective in this regard.
“There is a significant level of inflation now in Venezuela. The government led by Maduro has already devalued Venezuelan Bolivar coin. But only time will show how effective the measures in this sphere will be.”
How Maduro’s victory will affect the balance of power in the region?
“Even though Chavez named Maduro as his worthy successor, he, unfortunately, does not have such charisma that Hugo Chavez had. It is very important for maintaining relations in the region and with the rest of the world. Since he does not have influence among the heads of the states in the region, it is highly unlikely that he will be able to gain the authority Chavez had. That’s why the role of Venezuela might change. On the other hand, the relations in the region are identified by the oil capacity of the country, which served as the basis for forming relations with the countries in the region during the entire period when Chavez was in power. Oil impact will not be reduced, but the personal influence of the leader will definitely be lower. In this regard, many experts began to wonder about who will be able to lead Latin America now.”
What does the minimum lead of Maduro indicate?
“This result indicates that Venezuela needs change, because no matter how good the Chaveism was, its positive impact became evident primarily due to decrease in number of the poor in the country by nearly half. It’s no secret that the majority of those who voted for Chavez and for Maduro are the poor people. But Chavez was in power for 14 years. Anyone would want to see some changes – that’s the first thing. Second, Maduro is still not Chavez. There were many mistakes made in his presidential campaign. They stressed on continuing the policy of Chavez. His election campaign focused on the image of Chavez. Capriles is a new face in Venezuelan politics. He represents the ‘Justice First’ Party. This party is a part of the Venezuelan opposition group called ‘Democratic Unity Roundtable.’ This is a very powerful financial association. It includes the wealthiest families of the country. Thus, great capital backs up the opposition. Support of Western countries is added to this. First of all, practical open support of the United States played a great role.
“Another important point is that against the bright personality of Chavez both Maduro and Capriles lost. It is hard to gain such level of influence and support among the population after such a charismatic leader.”
What are the chances that Maduro would agree to a recount?
“This would be in his interests. He stresses that the elections were democratic, transparent, legitimate, and I think that at least given these facts he wouldn’t waive the recount.”
How would Maduro’s victory affect the relations between Venezuela and Ukraine?
“I do not think that Venezuela’s foreign policy towards other regions, including Ukraine, will change in any way. Significant changes might take place only if the opposition would come to power. But if the situation does not change and Maduro becomes the president, the development of relations between Ukraine and Venezuela will depend solely on Ukraine. Unfortunately, there was no serious effort made on our side (at the state level) to expand cooperation.”
