At his Kremlin meeting with representatives of the Chechen community, Pres. Volodymyr Putin made it clear that negotiations with Aslan Maskhadov are out of the question. The formula of “who supports Maskhadov supports war” will long dampen the spirits of those Russian politicians who will keep pressing for a political settlement of the situation and consultations with those who take up arms to fight the federal forces and think up new terrorist acts directed against Russian civilians and other nationals which the Russian special services are still unable to counter.
Throughout the second Chechen War, I kept saying that Russia must find its own Arafat in order to eliminate the threat of destabilization on a statewide scale. It stands to reason that in the wake of the Dubrovka hostage crisis such a threat has become a reality. President Putin has spelled it out to folks like me: Maskhadov is not Arafat, he is bin Laden. He backed his explanation with facts which are hard to disprove. At one moment Maskhadov would champion exterminating these odious terrorists and call on us to crack down on these outcasts, at another he would appoint them his deputies. He would mastermind bandit forays only to publicly condemn the perpetrators when they failed, the president said. However, the Israelis could repeat the same words addressing them to the bosom friend of the Russians, Yasir Arafat, — the same tactics without strategy, commotion, handcuffed civilians on both sides of the border. But so far Israel does not reject Arafat — not because Ariel Sharon likes him more than Putin likes Maskhadov, but because there is nobody else to replace him. And when that somebody else turns up, well, Arafat will become another bin Laden. What will be, will be.
Then who else is there in Chechnya? Do those in the Kremlin really believe that by holding a constitutional referendum and elections in the war-ridden republic they will bring in a legitimate government? Not in the least. Today this government is considered appointed, tomorrow it will be considered imposed. Incidentally, Doku Zavgayev was elected to head the republic. An elected parliament worked under him. And who stood to gain? No, elections can be held only in a peaceful republic. And who is to secure that peace? The army, which is about to return to barracks? Kadyrov, who controls a small land plot in downtown Grozny? The newfound Chechen police, who are likely to become a pool of weapons for combatants? It should be made clear that if the terror campaign escalates prior to the next presidential elections in Russia, Volodymyr Putin will have a hard time proving to his electorate that he in fact ensured stability as he promised in 2000.
Is it time to enter into negotiations with Maskhadov? How should I know? I would not want to contradict the formula coined by the Russian president. I do not choose war, I choose peace. But one thing is certain: negotiations should be held with a person capable of ensuring the disarmament of the combatants. And I care not who that person will be. Pres. Volodymyr Putin is the one to care about that. He would be better advised to take counsel not with loyal Chechens, but with his own law enforcement agencies and ask them this question. He must understand clearly that if no answers are at hand, the war will not end and Volodymyr Putin will go down in history as a president who unleashed this war only to lose it.
