It was possible that the Ukrainian antiaircraft missile hit the Tu-154 because of the “factor of water surface reflection.”
National Defense and Security Council (NDSC) Secretary Yevhen Marchuk announced this tentative conclusion from an experiment on the Opuk testing range (Cape Chauda in the Crimea) on November 1. The October 4 situation was simulated, with the sequence of events meticulously reproduced, and the radar monitor screens registered disturbances easily qualified as passive, caused by water surface reflection. This factor could have been one of the reasons for the missile going off course and homing in on the wrong target.
Secretary Marchuk further informed those present that Ukrainian Defense Ministry investigators had checked all possible reasons for the S- 200 missile having missed its intended target in simulated conditions absolutely as close to the actual situation as possible, reports Interfax Ukraine. “The ultimate objective was not only ascertaining the crew’s and equipment’s performance, but also working out substantiated recommendations to prevent such occurrences in the future,” Mr. Marchuk pointed out, adding that the experiment involved a regular S-200 antiaircraft missile crew and a training processor-controlled missile; all preparatory, launch, and tracking stages were simulated and the target was a MIG-29 with the same parameters as the target on October 4.
The NDSC secretary stated that the antiaircraft crew operated according to regulations and no faults were found: “After a double-check no deviations in the performance of the crew and equipment were found; the target was ‘hit’ twice.” Simultaneously, he stressed that the results were tentative, subject to further examination and simulation. Russian expert findings tallied with the Ukrainian ones.
Mr. Marchuk’s Russian counterpart Vladimir Rushailo, chairman of the governmental commission of inquiry into the Tu-154 crash, also said he believed that what happened resulted from a tragic coincidence caused by a technical malfunction. He pointed out that the commission focused on the possibility of the homing device zeroing in on the passenger aircraft after losing track of its target. “The final conclusions will be made by the Ukrainian side,” said Vladimir Rushailo, adding that the Russian side had supplied the Ukrainian government commission with all the data required.
The Russian government commission investigating the Tu-154 airplane crash held a session on November 2 at the Krym Military Sanitarium in Partenit near Alushta, participated by Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine (NSDC), Yevhen Marchuk, who heads the group of Ukrainian experts, representatives of the two states’ commissions, technical experts, and representatives of international organizations. Addressing a press conference in Partenit, Secretary of the National Security Council of Russia Vladimir Rushailo said that Ukrainian and Russian experts were still “working to draw up recommendations for the relevant bodies, aimed at excluding such situations in the future. Documents on air defense live- fire exercises are being revised...” He specified in particular that the issue is about the size of a no-fly air zone at the time of live firings and the installation of self-destruction units on all types of guided antiaircraft missiles.
In addition, Mr. Marchuk added, “A qualitatively new topic in the discussions with the Russian side was improving the safety of the proving grounds and infrastructure used by our military here in the Crimea for conducting exercises, maneuvers, practice, and live firings. We found it necessary to set up a special task force to work out — taking into account security, international law, ecology, the economy, the sad experience of the October 4 tragedy, and, in general, of the unfortunately rich world practice of similar tragedies — and offer the leadership of the two countries a package of measures to preclude such disasters. Following an instruction of the president of Ukraine, similar work will be done with respect to all facilities without exception on the territory of Ukraine, including the facilities utilized by Western countries for joint exercises.”
Mr. Marchuk denied media allegations that the S-200 unit, which fired the ill-fated missile, had been repaired by the Ukrainian military without the participation of Russian specialists, “Nobody can ever do anything without representatives of the manufacturing plant and the design bureau responsible for this system. Nor did Ukraine do this.”
The NSDC secretary said that “all the mathematical, ballistic, and physical calculations showed — and the Ukrainian side has no arguments to the contrary — that it was precisely the missile fired at that moment from the Cape of Chauda.”
Answering the question about participation of the Russian side in the compensation for the damage done, Vladimir Rushailo, Secretary of the National Security Council of Russia, said that, in compliance with the legal standards of exercise organization, “responsibility is to be borne by the side that organizes an exercise.”
The journalists also wondered about the prospects of criminal proceedings instituted in Russia and Ukraine. Mr. Marchuk said that, since Russia only represents the aggrieved party, the Russian criminal case materials would be handed over to Ukraine, while the Ukrainian criminal case materials would be attached to the materials of this commission. He emphasized that the commissions of both Russia and Ukraine had made a fully conscientious effort, discussing the conclusions of a technical commission which makes part of the International Aviation Committee, an international structure member itself. Thus the conclusions of this technical commission will be submitted to the ICAO so that international experts “make a very penetrating analysis of how complete, profound, and unbiased the investigation was.”
On Saturday NDSC Secretary Yevhen Marchuk, Russian committee chairman Vladimir Rushailo, and Ukrainian committee head Oleh Dubina met with President Kuchma, who promised to do everything possible to speed up the payment of compensation to the victims.
