This is the first time that Robert “Bob” Shrum, the political consultant of US presidential candidate Barack Obama and a Senior Fellow at New York University’s Robert F. Wagner Graduate School of Public Service, took part in the annual Yalta European Strategy (YES) forum. It may be said that he was continuing the US presidential campaign in Ukraine at the plenary session “Elections in Russia and the USA: Impact on Ukraine and Europe,” where he came out against Karl Rove, former Deputy Chief of Staff to George W. Bush and the chief strategist of Bush’s presidential campaigns.
What impression did the Yalta forum make on one of the key advisors to the Afro-American presidential candidate? How should the problem of Russia’s growing might be dealt with, and is it necessary to contain it? These and other questions are raised in The Day’s exclusive interview with Bob SHRUM.
“YES is a fantastic and interesting event. I learned a lot when I took part in my panel this morning (this interview took place on July 12 — Ed. ). In the US you can hear about the tensions and challenges in Ukraine-Russia relations. But you do not feel this here, listening to all the speeches. I would say in American: this forum is a real seller. This is a historic place, where a decision that had long-lasting consequences was made. At the time there was hope that after the famous Yalta Conference in 1945 Europe would not be divided into powerful blocs, and that the world would be one in which everyone would work together. It is entirely possible that we will be able to reach this point again. It is wonderful to be here in this place. I have to say that Franklin D. Roosevelt is my favorite hero. His last overseas trip was to this place.”
Since you just called Yalta the place where decisions on Europe’s future were made, I would like to hear how Europe is developing today from the US point of view.
“I think it is quite obvious that Europe is becoming the world’s third major powerful force. Maybe one day it will be the second or even the first because there are so many things going on. China is virtually booming, and Russia is regaining its power. And the real question is whether Russia wants to establish itself as a power that will be part of the European architecture or in opposition to it. In my opinion, Europe is going to become an increasingly more effective force in the world — economically, politically, and culturally. The euro is a very strong currency, while the dollar is, unfortunately, very weak. Whatever choice Ukraine makes, for example, about NATO, it is difficult for me to believe that it does not want to be part of the EU or a free trade area. At the same time, its economic relations with Russia can remain intact. This is the challenge for Ukraine.”
What is your position on the idea that Russia may join the European security system that would stretch from Iceland to Vladivostok?
“I don’t know if we will really be able to include Russia, one way or another, in the new architecture. Russia is quite an independent and self-sufficient country. And in the next few years it may become even more powerful than it has been. Its oil and gas reserves alone give it more political weight. But the real question is whether it is possible to integrate Russia, Europe, and the US and to deal with China in a community based on the idea that everyone pursues their own interests but still accepts and upholds common interests. This will be a serious challenge.”
Obama’s rival, the Republican candidate John McCain, has said that Russia should be excluded from the G-8. A year ago, when Yulia Tymoshenko was in the Ukrainian opposition, she wrote in her article in Foreign Affairs that Russia should be contained. Do you agree?
“Containing Russia can only mean that this country should respect the borders of other countries as well as their sovereignty and democracy.
“From this angle, the question should be: what can one gain by seeking a confrontation with Russia? I prefer Obama’s approach: hold negotiations, talk, but don’t rule out the use of force. But one must first take advantage of negotiations and see what results they bring and only then resort to force.”
But you can see the result of the EU’s negotiations with Iran on its nuclear file. Iran recently tested eight ballistic missiles. But Russia does not seem to be willing to pressure Iran into scrapping its nuclear program.
“As I have already said, this is a two-way street. Russia may be indignant that McCain wants to exclude it from the G-8. But Obama does not think this way. On the other hand, the US and the European countries, which comprise the majority of the civilized world, may be disappointed that Russia vetoed the UN’s resolution on Zimbabwe. But we need Russia and China to solve this problem and the Iranian one. I don’t think that McCain’s idea about a confrontation with Russia will have a positive effect. We should hold talks, and sanctions against Iran are the best option. But we should not rule out force during the negotiations, for example, if Russia does not agree to do something serious about Iran. McCain’s first reaction to Iran’s ballistic missile test was that we should build an antimissile shield in the heart of Europe. But we do not have an agreement with Russia on this issue.”
But Karl Rove says that Obama’s proposal to hold talks with Iran may thwart the EU’s efforts in this direction.
“Karl Rove took advantage of the right to make the final argument so that I could not rebut that his words are completely untrue. Obama simply said that we can hold negotiations with the Iranians without preliminary conditions. He said we must be prepared. He will not personally meet with [Iran’s President Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad, without preparation, without signs that there will be progress. But the answer to this is very simple. Ask any Europeans what approach to Iran they would prefer: George Bush’s approach, escalation, which McCain proposes, or the approach of Obama, who intends to hold real negotiations, but not to take the use of force off the negotiating table so that the problem is peacefully resolved.”
But some of Obama’s opponents claim that he is increasingly using Bush’s approaches to resolving problems. There is even an article headlined “Barack Bush.”
“The author of this article is a conservative Republican, who used to be an ardent Bushite at the Hoover Institute. In my opinion, he hopes that what he has written is the truth. I can only say that Obama has always been ready to talk to people (for which Rove criticizes him). He constantly quotes John Kennedy, who said, ‘Let us never negotiate out of fear. But let us never fear to negotiate.’ I think this makes him totally different from Bush. I also believe that McCain is also different from Bush. I think that McCain will be less consolidated with the allies and less open about trying to resolve problems peacefully. I think McCain is a classical example of a person who follows the principle ‘My way or the highway.’ As for Iraq, he not only wants an undisputed victory but undisputed compensation. But that will not happen.”
Are you sure about the victory of Obama, who has a five-percent lead over McCain, as recent polls indicate? According to some pundits, there have been some cases where presidential candidates lost an even greater advantage on Election Day.
“If Obama does not make any serious mistakes, he will win the elections. The objective conditions in the country are strongly leading people to vote for a Democrat. The economy is in shambles, and Bush has had an extremely low level of support for a long time. Gas prices are the highest in history. We have a crisis in the health care system. We are bogged down in an endless war in Iraq. People want this war to end. If you consider all the objective factors, you can say for sure that Obama will win. There are serious chronometric patterns and scientifically-proven political models for predicting the winner of the presidential race. And each of these models indicates that Obama will win.”
But many US experts point out that Obama lacks experience. Why won’t this be an important factor in the elections?
“We saw that this factor did not work in the primaries, when Hillary Clinton was in the race as an experienced senator. On the other hand, people cannot judge whether Obama is acceptable for the presidency without watching his televised debates with McCain. McCain will have to exert himself in these debates to answer the question of whether he is prepared to be the president. Rove is very aggressively hyping his boss. The Republicans are in dire straits. The McCain strategy does not resemble Bush’s in 2004. It hardly worked for Bush. When Bush had an approval rating of 50 percent, the economy was in better shape. This does not mean that it will work when Bush’s approval rating is not more than 30 percent and even 23 percent in some cases, when the economy is in a slump and people really want changes.
“US presidents cannot be successful or unsuccessful according to their resumes alone. Abraham Lincoln served in Congress for two years before becoming president. John Kennedy was not a true legislator either, when he was in the Senate. In 1980 the Democrats also thought that America would not elect the movie actor Ronald Reagan as president.
“So first of all, this is a question of knowing how to make judgments and talking about the will and hopes of the country. I think Obama is doing this very well. Rove is trying to do his utmost to achieve the result that he already knows — McCain will not be the US president.”
What can you say about the choice of vice-president?
“I don’t know anything about this. I would say if I knew. McCain may choose a reliable and self-sufficient conservative. Obama hasn’t chosen a running mate either.”
Can Al Gore be a candidate?
“This would be an incredibly good choice. So far we know that he has refused, and you won’t hear him say ‘yes’ until this happens.”
Could Hillary Clinton, as vice-president, unite all the Democratic voters?
“I think the Democrats are very united now. Reliable polls show that Obama should win by an eight- percent margin. The Democrats will gain a majority in the Senate and the House of Representatives. In my opinion, the Democrats are better united than the Republicans. I think that offering the vice-presidency to Mrs. Clinton will depend on a thorough analysis of the poll results. We do need a vice-president, but it should not turn out that we have elected three presidents. In all probability, this will be known 12 hours before the vice-presidential candidate’s name is announced.”
What do you think Ukraine should be doing on its way to NATO, considering the heavy pressure from Russia, which stubbornly opposes our country’s membership?
“Ukraine’s biggest problem is its dependence on oil and gas. We will support any decision regarding NATO. As for Russia, it seems to be afraid of losing its status as an empire. If this is discussed for a certain period of time, then the problem may be resolved — if the US is not involved in provocative things, such as McCain’s suggestion that Russia be excluded from the G-8, because this could have a tremendously negative effect on Ukraine. I once said that Mexico is far from God and so close to the US. Geographic proximity sometimes creates major problems that must be tackled.”
Let’s get back to Russian- American relations. We can see how Russia is reacting to the signing of an agreement on installing radars in the Czech Republic. The Russians are threatening to deploy medium-range missiles in Kaliningrad oblast.
“I can understand the Russians. The truth is that Iranian missiles may become a threat to Russia at any time, too. I can’t understand why Russia wants Iran to possess nuclear weapons under any circumstances. It doesn’t make any sense. We have reached the point in Russian-American relations where Russia opposes everything that the US proposes. I think people should pull back and think about what meets our interests and what is right for the future of their country. No matter what short-term economic benefits the Russians may derive from cooperating with Iran, they will have to bear heavy, long-term expenses. In my opinion, Russia will not allow this to happen. The difference is that Obama will be trying to negotiate with the EU to find solutions, while McCain will be heading for a speedy confrontation.
“As for Ukraine, it can develop fast and well. Russia must decide whether it will be involved in cooperation or try to retain effective control over Ukraine, or build cooperative and operational relations. Obviously, it will not be very difficult to do so if Ukraine, the US, and Europe are moving together in the same direction. At the same time, I’d like to note that it is ludicrous to claim that Ukraine’s accession to NATO and US military expenditures pose a threat to Russia. We do not want to threaten the Russians. They have a lot of nuclear weapons.”
