It seems that after a partially successful visit to Germany Yanukovych did a little better with eastern diplomacy. In contrast to Berlin, the People’s Republic of China did not ask for explanations on freedom of speech in Ukraine. Instead, the Ukrainian president spoke about the fact that with the new era of stability and order Chinese businesses can safely invest in Ukraine. “I am on this visit not only to establish a political partnership, not only to promote the new Ukraine as a potential Klondike, I also came to learn about your experience and your success. Investing in Ukraine, you can become co-owners of its powerful capabilities: industrial, agricultural, scientific,” he adressed to Chinese businesspeople.
Yevhen SHAROV, the head of the foreign policy department of the National Institute for Strategic Studies comments on the visit to China:
“The results of the visit exceeded my expectations as an expert. Frankly, I was waiting for a restrained reaction from Beijing. China has been very cautious over the past five years. Even six months ago the attitude of China to Ukraine was the opposite of what it is now. One of the main intrigues in the Chinese direction was whether during the visit the Ukrainian leadership would be able to convince the Chinese party that the situation in Ukraine had changed and that now was the time to make the relations truly strategic. And China accepted the credibility of this new leadership. Without China there is no chance to maintain the neutral status of Ukraine. Without the support of Beijing, the neutral policy of Kyiv has no prospects either from a political or an economic point of view. To survive, Ukraine needs China as a partner. Actually, the question is in strategic balancing. If Ukraine is supported by China on this level, then it seems to gain a serious chance to keep its neutral status, and for the first time in its 19-year history to go beyond the big board, as described by Brzezinski.
“On the other hand, cooperation with China will create the conditions necessary for the modernization of Ukraine. Unfortunately, during the past 19 years, due to a series of circumstances and certain foreign policy course, Ukraine degraded technologically and industrially. At present, there is a question facing the Ukrainian elite: if we integrate into the EU, what will be the cost? Currently there is no country, neither Russia nor the EU, nor the US, is interested in Ukraine becoming a strong, modern state. I would like to emphasize that the issue of the economic and technological structure of the economy of Ukraine is an issue of global geopolitics.
“No integration association in Europe or Eurasia spoke, until today, about the place and role of Ukraine in the global and European division of labor. Unfortunately, most countries are interested in the economic and technological degradation of Ukraine, and the de-industrialization of the country.
“Without Chinese investments and cooperation, it will be difficult for Ukraine to keep under the national control, and keep afloat, such sectors as space, aerospace, shipbuilding, engineering, and the development of fundamental science. In fact, China gives Ukraine its last chance for high-tech development and to maintain its place under the sun, rather than become an agricultural backwater in Eastern Europe. Ukrainian-Chinese cooperation creates a strategic foundation, for the first time since independence, to jump out beyond the matrix of the ‘big board’ and create a strategic balance and prevent foreign control.
“China is interested in Ukraine not joining NATO. Besides, China understands that if Ukraine goes towards integration with Russia, it will significantly strengthen Moscow. At the same time, China, which is modernizing, is interested in getting a number of technologies. They face the task of building a blue-water fleet, shifting the balance in the Asia-Pacific region. Beijing has an ambitious space program, as well as a program of the development of the aviation industry, fundamental sciences and personnel training. Ukraine, which was the core of the Soviet Union in terms of technology and production, can help them in all these areas. Therefore, Ukraine, whose potential was not completely destroyed, may give China a chance to quickly go through the process of modernization.
Here, however, a question arises on how to cooperate with China. China is a very hard and strong partner. Therefore, Ukraine needs policy that would keep China interested in Ukraine for as long as possible — not giving technologies away. At this, Chinese investments should go to those areas that are crucial for us: aircraft construction and space. We must not turn into an Eastern European country, which will supply sunflower oil and metal to Europe. The purpose of cooperation with China is to help them wherever we can, and at the same time preserve our potential and conduct our modernization. Cooperation with China allows us to create a mechanism for a strategic balance and conduct a reasonable policy. If we manage to do this, the pro-ject ‘Ukraine’ will be realized, if not, we will lose not only our industry, our technology, but also our country.”
Andre EICHHOFER, German journalist for NOST about Ukraine’s President Viktor Yanukovych in Germany:
“It is significant that German mass media carried almost no reports before the visit on the Ukrainian president’s official visit. The main news channels did not report on Yanukovych altogether. In my opinion, this is not a very good sign. I have not heard anything on the radio. And even in the papers there is very little coverage of the visit.
“Usually, an official visit of a leader of a mid-sized country is reported in the news. But that day there was nothing in the evening news.
“The goal of Ukraine’s President Yanukovych was to develop bilateral relations in the economic sphere. At a meeting with German business representatives, he made two statements. Firstly, he said that Ukraine would be Germany’s reliable partner as far as gas transit goes. Secondly, he expressed a hope that German companies would invest in Ukraine.
“In regards to the talks between the two leaders, officially Merkel said that everything was fine, and that economic relations between the two countries were going to expand. But she also noted that Yanukovych must protect freedom of the press and freedom of speech.
“Besides, the chancellor said that the German government expressed concerns due to some unpleasant news from Ukraine, in particular, related to a disappearance of a journalist, and the SBU actions. In her conversation with Yanukovych, Merkel emphasized that the government should not infringe upon the citizens’ liberties.
“I have talked to some people who were present during Yanukovych’s speech at the Hotel Adlon. In front of the hotel, there was a demonstration of Ukrainian citizens who protested against the regime’s interference into the mass media.
“An interlocutor said that Yanukovych’s speech was very abstract, not specific. The president spoke about Ukraine-Germany relations, the economy, but at the same time he didn’t say anything precise. Yanukovych was speaking Ukrainian, but when asked questions by the audience, he answered in Russian.
“German economists see the fact that Ukraine obtained a loan from the IMF as positive. In their opinion, Yanukovych’s government has improved the economic situation in the country. But many of them believe that German business needs clearer perspectives to invest in Ukraine.
“In my view, it is very hard to say if German businessmen are prepared to deal with Yanukovych’s government. It is crucial for German companies that Ukraine solve the corruption problem. I don’t think that German businessmen would prefer dealing with Yanukovych rather than with Tymoshenko.
“As for Yanukovych’s wish to incorporate Ukraine’s EU membership perspective in the Association Agreement, Merkel said she supported it — but these were just general phrases, nothing concrete, no definite decision. To my mind, it’s just words. Germany will rather watch the development of the situation in Ukraine.
“Ukraine and the EU have been long been discussing the Association Agreement. It has been almost two years since the start of the talks. However, there are no clear results. Merkel said she would support Ukraine, but that was all. At present, there are no hints as to when this Agreement will be completed and signed.
“Germany is happy that Ukraine has good relations with Russia. During Yushchenko’s time in office, Germany had difficulties in dealing with Russia. Berlin considers Russia a good partner for Germany, and complications might arise due to Ukraine’s desire to join NATO.
“No one in Germany will tell you this officially, but in my opinion, the German government is happy that Ukraine no longer wants to become a NATO member. It makes no problem for the government, on the contrary, it makes relations with Russia easier.”
Dr. Reiner LINDNER, executive director, East-Committee of the German Economy, comments on the visit to Germany:
“Firstly, it is crucial that the president of Ukraine chose Germany out of the EU countries for his first official visit. It is of huge importance for us. In particular, this visit testifies to the value which Ukraine attaches to Germany.
“Secondly, the talks were a great success. Particularly in regards to the energy sector. They contemplated the creation of a gas consortium and holding a conference on it in Ukraine this fall. It is of great importance for us.
“There were also some very interesting negotiations with business owners. Complicated issues related to the investment climate were solved clearly and precisely. Both the president and Vice Prime Minister Serhii Tihipko gave the businessmen an opportunity to talk about those issues, and gave clear and precise explanations as to how they would be settled. All the parties came out with very positive impressions. And it seems to me that the visit was very successful.
“Concerning freedom of speech — a lot was said about problems in Ukraine, such as corruption. The president himself said that a draft law on the war with corruption was being discussed at the moment. Certainly, the problems of freedom of the press in Ukraine were also discussed. However, as a business, our focus is on allowing business to develop, to enable Ukrainian citizens to work, for example, at German enterprises in Ukraine, and thus to introduce them to German business culture and understand the guarantees and services provided by those jobs. I believe that working at such enterprises is very important.
“As far as Germany’s proposed participation in the international gas consortium on the modernization of the Ukrainian GTS, it is an old idea, albeit in a new format. It is important for us to hear that this proposal is being considered. Besides, there was an offer on the part of a major German company to invest in Ukrainian health services. On the whole, there were a lot of offers and pro-jects. So I think the visit was interesting and successful.
“There is a large interest among German companies in Ukraine’s preparation to the Euro-2012. If Ukraine is interested, Germany will definitely support and invest in these projects. We understand that this event is of major significance for Ukraine.”
Valerii CHALY, deputy director general of the Razumkov Center comments on the visit to China:
“The most important result is that a state visit to China, one of the most important countries in the world today, which is dynamically developing, took place. It is an economically powerful country that plays a very serious role in maintaining international security. It is important that Ukraine’s president became personally acquainted with Chinese leaders. I think those discussions, negotiations, and contacts will promote the development of relations between the two countries.
“However, when talking of a breakthrough, I would like to cool the fervor of the government. After all, breakthroughs are measured not by statements, as we have often seen already, but by actual results. In this sense, the assessment of the visit may depend on what to compare: the desired results and actual achievements or today’s declared goals, which are really ambitious. Speaking about the desired results, not everything happened as quickly as the Ukrainian party would like it to. In particular, the announced agreement on strategic partnership became ‘joint efforts to fill bilateral strategic relations with content and launching relations of strategic partnership.’ No document develops the previous joint declarations adopted earlier. This is natural. Moreover, I think it is a mistake to speak about filling bilateral relations with some strategic content. Objectives should be strategic, and the results of relations depend on them. Here, in my opinion, the formula used in the joint statement of the presidents is somewhat unfinished.
“The second point, concerning practical cooperation, is better. The declared projects are not the ones meeting capacity, but they are a good beginning. If these projects are implemented, it will be a step forward.
“I would draw attention to what was less discussed in the mass media, but what is more important. This is cooperation in the military-technical sphere, particularly in aircraft and tank construction, on cooperation in the space and nuclear industries, as well as other high-tech fields. These are all intentions. And we will see the result of this cooperation in coming years. This is what Ukraine needs: orders given for Ukrai-nian industry, especially the military-industrial complex, which is in a difficult situation.
“However, vague declarations and specific requests to the Chinese party regarding guarantees of security for Ukraine as a non-nuclear state, have yet to be embodied in a clear formula, as was proposed by President Viktor Yushchenko, who sent the Chinese party an official letter with the wording of a joint statement. The present declaration only addresses respecting Ukraine’s decision to renounce the nuclear weapons. The guarantee, and China’s position on the non-use of nuclear weapons towards non-nuclear states, are not quite what the Ukrainian party needed in the development of the Budapest memorandum.
“It is good that there was a general statement about the relationship instruments and bilateral agency on the level (on our part) of vice-premier. This will enable a more systematic work with China and, in particular, more effective preparation for the visit of the prime minister to China, and the visit of the Chinese de-legation to Ukraine this fall. At this, the two-year roadmap that was formulated is a pragmatic document. But it also needs to be implemented. Therefore, you can later analyze the situation on the implementation of this roadmap and other loud and ambitious declarations.
“The declarations about the cooperation between the Communist Party of China and the Party of Regions also drew attention. I do not know how Petro Symonenko, who was also in China, reacted to that. But it looks somewhat strange that the president of Ukraine speaks on behalf of a party — according to Ukrainian le-gislation he cannot be a member of any party. China’s experience with the ruling Communist Party, which is automatically transferred to Ukraine, does not correspond to the development of our political system. Ukraine’s president should not speak on behalf of only one, even influential, party. Even the joint declaration, which can be assessed positively, stated the intention to facilitate wider contacts and encourage political parties and NGOs of both countries to expand mutual contacts.
“On the whole, I would call the visit a success, but not a breakthrough. And the declarations voiced by the president need to be analyzed in terms of our internal politics as well. The president’s speeches in Beijing and Hong Kong stated, in essence, that the Chinese model of development was not only interesting but also acceptable for Ukraine. He also declared that Ukraine welcomed a partner that would not inquire about historical and cultural development, and that would not try to increase its influence on Ukraine, unlike others. However, he did not mention which ‘others’ he referred to. But we all understand what he means. And I think that in the near future the president will be able to discuss this further with his strategic partners in Moscow and Washington.”
