There is no telling what the outcome of the talks between the Party of Regions and BYuT will be. There is a difference between setting up a coalition within the comfortable confines of one’s bureaucratic office and having it actually appear. It is very hard to picture Mykola Azarov working under Yulia Tymoshenko’s command, considering his fierce criticism of the incumbent cabinet’s performance. How will the antagonists Viktor Yanukovych and Viktor Yushchenko act within one coalition in 2009, the pre-elections year?
If and when these two huge factions unite, they will be able to accomplish a lot. Three hundred votes in parliament is like nuclear energy. It can be used for peaceful purposes and to destroy countries and cities. On the one hand, these two factions can make the Ukrainian parliament legitimate, pass anti-crisis laws, and establish a balance of power in the country. On the other hand, there is a risk that our democracy will be curtailed and a two-party system will be set up to serve the needs of only these two. Finally, there is the most important issue of Constitution. How will they go about it? This issue is still being debated, although without official statements on either side, except hearsay.
Our president is known to have held talks with the Party of Regions this year about ousting Tymoshenko. These days Yushchenko is a nervous man and is talking about “threats to democracy.” What was he thinking when he was ruining the democratic coalition by using the “Single Center”? What was he thinking when he was destroying the Cabinet, “breaking” governors, and accusing the prime minister of high treason?
And then he insisted on preserving the coalition. Our president has failed to establish a reliable political system and carry out reforms. Instead, he engaged in petty squabbles with his political opponents. Yushchenko has trapped himself and does not deserve pity, but it will very unfortunate if, spurred by the coalition of the Party of Regions and BYuT, this man, “the hope of the nation,” will decide to launch another country-saving crusade.
Below The Day‘s regional reporters speak on the risks and opportunities presented by the PR-BYuT coalition. Is this coalition a way out of the crisis or a dead-end street?
COMMENTARIES
Viktor RADCHUK, political scientist and spin doctor, Zhytomyr:
“This issue has long been on the political agenda, yet neither of the above-mentioned political figures has succeeded in implementing it. This is because each of these political forces has practical and strategic risks to reckon with. Today it is the election campaign, but there are also more distant prospects.
“The BYuT and the Party of Regions are aware that this kind of alliance will be the “black mark” for their crucial electorate. This is especially true of Tymoshenko, while less so in regard to the Party of Regions, considering their fanatic electorate, people prepared to forgive all their mistakes, like siding with the BYuT.
“On the Ukrainian political arena, this will be another tactical move to allow the Verkhovna Rada to have another speaker and make our parliament functional.
The alignment of forces outside these two blocs is important, of course. This is a risky move, considering the possibility of a constitutional majority in parliament that may well materialize and set an unwelcome course that will cost Ukraine the loss of many of its positions on the international scene. (I am loath to consider the possibility of a threat to our national independence.)
“It is hard to predict the course BYuT-PR will take; it could end up as a pitched battle. Then this coalition will have several months before it dies, but may meanwhile lead Ukraine into a cul-de-sac.
“I do not think that dividing our politics into the humanitarian, social, and economic fields is right. I believe that the way out of the current crisis lies more in terms of moral, rather than economic decisions, taken by our government. Not so long ago I studied the history of certain advanced European countries in times of crisis. I found no such alliances in Germany and France. However, judging by what certain members of the Party of Regions recently said, they are wary of certain statements made by Tymoshenko. This means there may be other options.”
Mykola TERESHCHENKO, political scientist, deputy head of SMS Monitoring Center, Mykolaiv:
“In the current situation on Ukraine’s political Olympus, no decision or coalition will be a cure-all. Nevertheless, we have to look for a solution to this problem. At present, everyone, including President Viktor Yushchenko and his milieu, are aware that the early parliamentary elections will not benefit Ukraine in any way.
“What regards the PR-BYuT coalition, I think it has a future. For the next couple of months, it may offer an opportunity of stabilizing the domestic situation. What I mean is this: no matter how much we criticize the cabinet headed by Tymoshenko, these people are trying to work. If this cabinet is reinforced by PR professionals, it will perform better.
“Of course, this will require giving several ministerial offices to Yanukovych’s people. However, by reinforcing Tymoshenko’s cabinet this way, we will reduce the risks of political and economic instability in the country. Besides, the Party of Regions and BYuT include representatives of big business united by common business interests. They will certainly try to provide comfortable conditions for their businesses, and this will serve to stabilize the economic and political situation in Ukraine. Social tensions will ease and there will be jobs and payments to the budgets on all levels. Everyone will benefit from this.
“The Party of Regions and BYuT realize that the escalating political and socioeconomic crisis in Ukraine will have devastating consequences for everyone. The PR and BYuT businesspeople do not want any social cataclysms.
“If a PR-BYuT coalition materializes, it will exist for several months, its duration being dependent on how flexible Tymoshenko will be. She stands every chance of keeping her post provided she gives some portfolios to the members of the Party of Regions. If she doesn’t, she may lose out.
“Yanukovych has to realize that a coalition between the Party of Regions and BYuT is more feasible than with Our Ukraine, considering that the PR ideology is so different from that of OU but is closer to that of the BYuT. By joining the alliance with Our Ukraine, the Party of Regions will lose considerably more voters than by forging a coalition with the BYuT.
“Recent SMS Monitoring polls in Mykolaiv oblast indicate a steady growth in BYuT ratings, while the PR is on a downward curve. In 2007 the Party of Regions registered a more than twofold advantage over the BYuT, whereas the votes are divided in roughly the same proportion between them. Therefore, the early parliamentary elections are not likely to benefit the Party of Regions. In fact, it can lose more rather than it will gain. I believe that the PR-BYuT coalition is the best option to date; it is certain that this coalition will not be a cul-de-sac.”
