Kyrgyzstan’s ex-Prime Minister Almazbek Atambayev won the first round of the presidential election last Sunday. After processing 99 percent of the ballots, the Kyrgyz Central Election Commission announced some 63 percent were in favor of the 55-year-old politician. His number-one rival, Adakhan Madumarov, leader of the Butun (United Kyrgyzstan) party in the south of Kyrgyzstan, collected about 15 percent, ditto another southern candidate, Kamchibek Tashiyev, ex-emergencies minister under Bakiyev, currently leader of the Ata-Meken (Fatherland) Socialist Party.
For the first time in the history of independent Kyrgyzstan, no one could predict the presidential election’s outcome, just as no one could visualize a peaceful handover of presidential power. The incumbent head of state had won all presidential campaigns, collecting votes that by far outnumbered those of his opponents, simply because every election was rigged. The revolutions made both step down in 2005 and 2009. The causes of the political death of Akayev and especially Bakiyev, an academician and leader of the Tulip Revolution, are public knowledge: nepotism, rampant corruption, persecution of dissidents. Kyrgyzstan became a parliamentary republic after the last public outburst [revolution]. “We have survived two dictatorships; we’ve had enough, considering that the Kyrgyz people is a peace-loving body politic,” explains Asiya Sasykbayeva, ex-Deputy Speaker of the Zogorku Kenesh unicameral Parliament of Kyrgyzstan. This lady has suffered from Bakiyev’s repressions, and she remains in opposition. The schools housing polling stations display photos of graduates entitled “Heroes of the April 2010 Revolution” on top of those illustrating government awards. Former ranking bureaucrats are on trial for the usage of force against their fellow citizens (84 killed and over 500 wounded) including the former head of state (subject to trial in absentia).
Deputy Prime Minister Atakhonov (an ethnic Uzbek) offers proof of the viability of this newly born [Central Asian] democracy: “Over the past ten months, 1,500 rallies have taken place in this country, more often than not demanding justice. This society is marked by a diversity of ideas, as well as by a competition between the branches of power.”
True enough, considering that each day sees another rally in front of the Zogorku Kenesh, with three parties making up the ruling coalition and two remaining in opposition within the Kyrgyz parliament; also with local media urging the MPs to remain tolerant and responsible for their statements.
In fact, the Consul of the Republic of Kyrgyzstan told me all this and warned me against taking a trip to his country, considering that all consulate members had been barred access to the Kyrgyz polling stations in Ukraine. Kyrgyz diaspora activists (consulate records read there are 1,300 Kyrgyz nationals in Ukraine, and about 7,000 permanent residents) used the consulate premises to set up an election commission…
Despite the stated parliamentary system, the president of Kyrgyzstan plays a major political role; he is to be elected by a nationwide – rather than parliament’s – vote. The president is entitled to order the Kyrgyz Parliament dissolved, relying on an ambiguous legal clause, to the effect that the head of state can do so when faced with a conflict with the legislative branch that cannot be settled. The head of state can also appoint heads of law enforcement agencies and secret police (except the interior minister’s post). In a word, the president’s status is such that he will never agree to give up his office.
Another noticeable aspect of the presidential campaign in Kyrgyzstan was the absence of Rosa Otunbayeva, the incumbent head of state, considering that she remains popular with, and respected by, the general public. As a result of the recent referendum, her status was determined as ad hoc president denied the right to run for the next presidency. This lady is known to have decided to work for the United Nations after being formally relieved of her post.
Kyrgyzstan’s presidential campaign boasted a record list of candidates, with only 16 passing muster with the Central Election Commission (with the others turned down for lack of command of Kyrgyz as the official language). The favorites were known from the outset, with Almazbek Atambayev topping the list (he had resigned as prime minister before the campaign), followed by ex-Emergencies Minister Kamchibek Tashiyev and ex-Speaker Adakhan Madumarov. The ex-prime minister’s popularity can be explained by his personal and professional qualities, along with his policy aimed at raising wages and salaries for the spending units, securing adequate old-age pensions.
In the course of the presidential race the contestants often used expletives and were promptly and correctly reprimanded by the Central Election Commission. In fact, the incumbent head of state declared she knew about the fake ballots in favor of the fugitive Bakiyev and who had planted them (she refused to identify the persons responsible). The man had been daydreaming of returning to Kyrgyzstan.
Authorities braced themselves for provocative acts on the election date, considering that Roza Otunbayeva had told journalists that there could be attempts to torch polling stations in the north of Kyrgyzstan, to trigger off public unrest in the south (with regional solidarity activists playing a major role). Candidate Tashiyev took advantage of the Saturday marking the election deadline, when all campaign activities were banned, to declare that millions would take to the streets if they believed the elections to be unfair.
Many regarded this statement as a threat against the outcome of the elections – if it wasn’t in Tashiyev’s favor – and that this would trigger off interethnic conflicts in the south of Kyrgyzstan dominated by the Uzbek community. People vividly remembered what had happened in June 2010, when 415 persons died and 75,000 sought refuge in Uzbekistan. Those currently in power say ex-President Bakiyev and his supporters are to blame for that tragedy.
People interviewed at the polling stations in Bishkek and elsewhere in Kyrgyzstan (where yurts were put up, with samovars going, ready to serve tea to the aqsaqal elders) often said they wanted all the candidates to accept the outcome, so there could be a peaceful handover of presidential power.
The turnout was some 60 percent, good enough compared to the previous official records. On several occasions the international observers registered voters’ complaints about the absence of their names on the lists (including Otunbayeva’s son who immediately made it known using Facebook). It was also true that the voters could check the lists by visiting the polling stations before the election date, as well as by accessing the Central Election Commission’s website. In Bishkek, those who hadn’t found their names on the lists could complain directly to Kyrgyz Ombudsman Tursunbek Akun (also known as the King of Barricades), a veteran human rights champion who had fought the Akayev and Bakiyev regimes and served numerous prison terms, including hunger strikes. Several complaints were granted due to his intercession.
The new president will have to deal with a bad political heritage, the result of Kyrgyzstan’s neoliberal economic policy as an independent country, and the world economic crisis. According to Minister of Labor, Employment, and Migration Almazbek Abytov, every fourth family has a member earning a living abroad, sending money home, but the sums thus transferred have lowered because of the crisis. Guljamal Sultanaliyeva, chairperson of Kyrgyzstan’s non-governmental Human Rights Council, cites hair-raising statistics: over 48 percent of Kyrgyz children are living below the poverty line; every eighth child is on the verge of starvation; over 500,000 children are employed; most of Kyrgyz children ne-ver go to school; in Bishkek 300,000 persons – mostly people who came in search of jobs and a better living – live in bidonvilles that currently make up 47 microdistricts, without paved roads, water and electricity supply. These people are believed to be trigger-happy in terms of public unrest.
