Ukrainians have been waiting for one and a half months for the political crisis to be resolved (if Sept. 2, 2008, is the point of departure). At first, it seemed that the presidential decree disbanding parliament and calling an early election on Dec. 7 introduced some clarity to the process of resolving the crisis. But it had the opposite effect — it only exacerbated the political situation in the country.
The Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc announced a legal battle against the president, calling into question the legality of his decree. To make matters worse, the Cabinet of Ministers refused to withdraw money from the reserve fund to finance the early elections. As a result, the election campaign has already been disrupted, and the elections will definitely not take place on Dec. 7.
Why, then, is the election process being dragged out? Is this a carefully-planned step by the BYuT or something totally different? Yurii Kostenko, leader of the Ukrainian People’s Party, believes that putting the election campaign on hold and the failure to fund the elections are problems that have everything to do with the political party sponsors, who had agreed to pay for a four-year mandate but ended up with a one-year term. Is this really the main reason why the election process in Ukraine is slowing down?
Volodymyr FESENKO, political scientist and head of the Penta Center for Applied Policy Studies:
“It’s a fact that the party sponsors have problems that are primarily connected to the economic crisis that is happening in Ukraine and everywhere else in the world. So the cost of elections went up, as well as the cost of election process services. Party sponsors have also not earned back the money they spent on the last elections, and next year there’s going to be a presidential election. So I think that even if the elections take place, they will be more economical and frugal. The political forces will be seeking various ways to obtain a good result with minimum expense.
“But I don’t think that the financial issue is the main factor that is slowing down the parliamentary elections. If we look at the BYuT, it is common knowledge that it is Ms. Tymoshenko, not the party sponsors, who rules the roost in this political force. Some Party of Regions members envy the BYuT’s sponsors because those who bought parliamentary seats on the BYuT list in the previous elections now have an opportunity to work it off politically and not pay again. The average Party of Regions oligarchs have more problems today than their BYuT counterparts.
“The main reason why the BYuT is dragging its feet is that it will not derive any political benefit from these elections. The risk of losing the premiership is too great. If the elections are held, there will be a major chance to form a parliamentary coalition around the Party of Regions, with Viktor Yanukovych becoming prime minister. Or there will be a more flexible coalition with the new political forces in the Verkhovna Rada.
“In this case, the post of prime minister may go to some neutral figure, who will side with the president. But I would not rule out the possibility that Tymoshenko will head the government again because no one knows the results of these elections.
“In general, I doubt that any coalition will be formed after the elections. First of all, is there any sense in assuming responsibility for participating in the ruling coalition when an economic crisis is rampant? Second, the leaders of the small parties that will enter the Verkhovna Rada after the early elections will not want to be the bargaining chip in the formation of a coalition. Volodymyr Lytvyn or Petro Symonenko will also be running for the presidency, so they won’t see any sense in joining a coalition with one election favorite or another.
“There is one more scenario: simultaneous early parliamentary and presidential elections. This is just one of the reasons why the BYuT is holding back the election process. In this case, the electorate will be voting according to the principle of bipolarity — for or against Tymoshenko and Yanukovych, with all the other candidates being uncompetitive.
“If the parliamentary and presidential elections are held at the same time, Tymoshenko has a chance of winning at least one of the elections — the presidential one. Then there will be a totally different logic to the formation of a parliamentary coalition. Deals will be made with the new president, not with the winner of the parliamentary election.
“As for the election date, I think that, if the Central Election Commission continues to be obstructed, this will inevitably postpone the date because the election campaign schedule has already been upset. Therefore, I would say that the BYuT has won the first round of the election race because so far it is managing to win the court wrangle with the president and the CEC.
“But the future political situation is fully in the hands of the head of state. If the president manages to fund the elections, he will have a chance. If he doesn’t, Ukraine will face a very serious dilemma: either a major war, which has in fact begun, or a major compromise.”
