If the presidential elections had been held last Sunday, 69% of those polled by the Kyiv International Sociology Institute (KMIS) and Socis Center would vote, compared to an 84.5% turnout forecast by the Social and Political Psychology Institute. According to the latter’s experts, the most active voters are people in Ukraine’s western regions, where a 96.5% turnout is predicted, and 92.2% in Kyiv. The least active voters are in the Crimean Autonomous Republic, where a turnout of 63.9% is predicted. The Social and Political Psychology Institute surveyed 2,018 respondents between September 17 and 22, compared to 11,058 citizens who were polled by KMIS and Socis between September 17 and 27. According to Social and Political Psychology Institute director Mykola Sliusarevsky, the polls have a 2% to 3% margin of error.
According to the joint KMIS and Socis poll, the two presidential frontrunners, Viktor Yushchenko and Viktor Yanukovych, are neck and neck, with 31.6% and 30.7% of the popular vote, respectively.
Respondents characterize the Our Ukraine leader most often as a pro-Western politician (46.4%). Most respondents consider him a politician of the new generation (40.6%) and patriot (37.7%). However, he is sometimes seen as a disturber of peace and public order. In comparison with the opposition candidate, the current prime minister gives voters fewer reasons to fear a flare-up of interethnic strife. Among those polled, 15.5% think this will happen if Yanukovych succeeds to the top post, while this figure is twice higher for Yushchenko. Yanukovych is characterized as “cunning and artful” (31.9%) but also as a “brilliant leader capable of leading the nation” (25.3%). As for the remaining contenders, most respondents view the “eternal contender” Oleksandr Moroz as a “candidate whose election will not change anything.” Communist Party candidate Petro Symonenko has received mostly negative ratings, with 34.7% of those polled saying that he is “making empty promises.”
In a breakdown by gender, women, mostly aged over 55, show more support for Yanukovych (57.5%). Yushchenko is popular with young voters, mostly under 35 years of age. University-educated respondents support Oleksandr Moroz (21.4%), Viktor Yanukovych (21.2%), and Viktor Yushchenko (20.9%). According to Socis, people with secondary education (29.2%) mostly support Petro Symonenko.
According to Social and Political Psychology Institute director Mykola Sliusarevsky, in the immediate future we should expect significant changes in the distribution of voters’ political preferences. However, unlike the situation in the country during the 1999 parliamentary elections, opinion polls are registering a low level of social tensions. Thus, we should not expect any major upheavals.
Despite the undisputed leadership of the two frontrunners — Yushchenko and Yanukovych — neither of them has a chance of winning the elections in the first round. In the runoff the gap between Yushchenko and Yanukovych is expected to shrink even further. At the same time, both KMIS and Socis claim that if the elections were held right now, Yushchenko would garner 38.2% of the popular vote, including 2.8% of votes from those who supported Moroz in the first round, while Yanukovych would get 37.5% of the vote, including 2% of votes from those who voted for Symonenko in the first round. Meanwhile, 6.8% of those polled would vote against both candidates in the runoff.
