Judging by everything, a new parliamentary faction might be born. Its creation is being explained by the necessity to regroup forces in the Center, for the Right is said to be too opposition-minded. The Centrists, in their turn, have sullied themselves and seen their popularity plummet because it is they who brought down Viktor Yushchenko. Applying this kind of logic, one can surmise that the president needs new soldiers to fight the Left and the new opposition. This scheme brings us to several conclusions: Mr. Yushchenko should not have been fired, the Center is oligarchic to the bone, and something should be done for Ukrainian democracy to triumph. What can serve as building material is the NDP segment with Ivan Pliushch and Roman Bezsmertny, as well as the quite numerous parliamentary knights errant. Outside parliament again looms the figure of Mr. Yushchenko whose name, like a flag, will help rally voters. And all of them together, say parliamentary wags, have a chance to repeat the success of Zlahoda and the NDP as the largest pro-presidential associations. Yet, there are quite a few queries about the birth of this faction.
The first is the likely basis of the new political project: Messrs. Bezsmertny, Pliushch, and Yushchenko. The compliments they are dishing out to each other is a broad hint that an alliance has been forged. (Incidentally, Interfax-Ukraine reports that the president wants Mr. Yushchenko to stay in politics, but everything depends on him personally and which way he will swing. So far, the president thinks, he “swings too much to the right,” while “a centrist association headed by Pliushch” is “so far unknown” to the chief executive).
The second is that a lengthy premier race is much to the benefit of Mr. Yushchenko himself who has enlisted the support of the Right. The race is not to the benefit of the parliament (which was repeatedly stated by the deputies of diametrically opposed views, who were unlikely to have coordinated these statements) or the executive branch because the new opposition is on the alert. But if this is a pro-presidential faction, then why does Mr. Bezsmertny not try very much to help stop the premier race? Does Mr. Yushchenko fancy Mr. Pliushch as premier? Word has it in parliament that there are in fact two (or three) premier races going on. For if the presidential representative in parliament and the speaker are not apparently playing for the candidacy officially proposed by the president, this means the game is not so simple. The president himself has repeatedly come out in favor of Mr. Kinakh. Who is playing then? The answer is likely to be given today, when Mr. Kinakh’s candidature is slated to be put to the vote.
The third is that the faction formed to reinforce the Center might just as well weaken it. As the number of deputies is limited, many so-called Centrists will have to be recruited into the faction. The defectors will inevitably stage a parade of ambitions, which is certain to tell on the psychological climate in the Center, which the new opposition plus the Left will undoubtedly take advantage of. The result is directly opposite to the one expected.
To see the true purpose of the new fraction formation, let us analyze the situation in light of the conflicting interests of parliamentary forces. The faction is arising on the Yushchenko-Center fault line. What considerations was parliament guided by, having voted Yushchenko out of office? They proceeded from the consideration that it is easy to find people with good professional skills and a different attitude toward the parliament. They were really right to think so. But Yushchenko the premier and Yushchenko the politician are two different personas. Today’s Yushchenko is nothing but a political brand name. Resignation at a time when the cream of a favorable economic situation has been skimmed can only do him good.
But, while Mr. Yushchenko did not much overburden himself with commitments to political forces at the beginning of the ad campaign for his image, now this is almost impossible. The current candidate premier, who would satisfy little by little the interests of most parties, should be a certain Mr. Center. And forestalling the emergence of a balance of interests in parliament around the figure of Mr. Kinakh could be the new project’s first tactical goal. An Absolute Center instead of the Center?
Since Mr. Kinakh was proposed by the president, nobody dares oppose him openly. Moreover, Mr. Kinakh really possesses the rare gift of being always in the center under any circumstances, so tomorrow he might well be to the liking of those who wish him failure today. But this will be tomorrow, while today it becomes tactically important to reject the candidate. What effect this will have on the relationship among the parliament, president, and cabinet does not seem to worry the initiators overly much.
One more detail is that it is not so difficult to muster the Right under Mr. Yushchenko’s colors, for he was winged by the Left. What is important is that those who will be chanting praise should not recall that Mr. Yushchenko has so far given nothing special to the Right as such. Instead, the possibility shimmers of a rivalry among the Right factions for being closer to Mr. Yushchenko: the impression is it is not the Right who support Mr. Yushchenko but he who allows them to support him. As recently as last week Yushchenko, Udovenko, and Pynzenyk talked over the formation of a “broad coalition of democratic forces.”
The Left is more difficult to deal with. The Left knows that both the parliament and country as a whole need a premier. But it looks like a wise political figure comes in and whispers, “If you wanted to strike out at the president, hit Kinakh, for he is the president’s man, and it will hurt Kuchma.” If the Left chooses revenge, that will be the end of the affair. The main thing is that nobody should think over the consequences.
The Center presents semi- serious difficulties. It is sufficient to spur the ambitions of central (or, to be more exact, wannabe) players. “Just look at this ordinary guy. He’s got no serious faction and he himself is not all there...” It is important that he reply in a blood-bubbling indignation, “Yes, I am the most centrist and best of all.” Since there are lots of such pro-Presidential dandies, they need a new faction, which, incidentally, could include Mr. Kinakh also. In this case, the phrase “acting premier” becomes almost inevitable. For an acting premier will never consult with all factions without exception: parliament would only be a hindrance to him. Meanwhile, the dream of a coalition government will have to be buried yet again, not only because the parliament would be unable to confirm the premier but also because the streamlined parties would receive a staggering blow. So far, deputies from the degrading factions are trying to cut up those who have stayed behind. This is a systemic, not political, war: the parliament will either preserve its structure or will turn into a big quagmire.
In essence, voting or not voting the premier into office (Mr. Bezsmertny is right: Mr. Kinakh’s personal qualities do not matter here) in fact amounts to testing the parliamentary instinct of self- preservation which, incidentally, brings about evolution under conditions of natural political selection.
COMMENT
Vadym KARASIOV, political scientist, Kharkiv:
“I do not believe in this project. This could be done in Russia by Berezovsky who could marshal the media and many other things. But where will they find a Putin of their own? Rather, this is a maneuver of harassment, a way to rub shoulders with and a stand in the way of big-time players.”
Mykhailo POHREBYNSKY, director, Kyiv Center of Political and Conflict Research:
“Even if the newly-formed faction has thirty to fifty seats, it will not upset radically the existing parliamentary configuration because it is impossible to form a noncommunist parliamentary majority without the participation of the Right fractions. This makes it hard to say whether the creation of this faction will promote stability in the parliament and constructive cooperation between the branches of government. In my opinion, the attempt to form this unit aims to weaken the Center factions - the Democratic Union, SDPU(o), and Labor Ukraine - which are now in fact calling the tune. For, in addition to independent deputies and deputies perhaps from Solidarity or from among Socialists who changed color, disappointed with the party’s resolutely anti-presidential stand, the new faction could also absorb members of the three groupings mentioned. I do not rule out that this could lead in the long run to the disappearance of one of the pro-presidential factions, for example, NDP which is already on its last legs. A part of the NDP faction become part of the newly- formed faction. It is the parliamentary speaker who is in fact pulling the strings. His ideas might have been supported by the head of the Presidential Administration. It seems to me this faction could be headed by Roman Bezsmertny, and this also confirms that we can soon say goodbye to the NDP fraction.”
