President of the Project on Transitional Democracies Bruce Jackson is known as a very successful lobbyist in the US Senate. Thanks to his efforts this legislative body adopted a decision to make the countries of the former socialist camp NATO members. He is a frequent guest in Ukraine, he comes mainly in critical moments for our country. This time the author of this article was able to meet with Mr. Jackson at Bratislava Security Forum, where he spoke in a friendly manner with ministers of foreign affairs, including Radek Sikorski, and with the President of Estonia by a glass of beer. In an exclusive interview to The Day Mr. Jackson talked about how the prospects for signing of the Association Agreement look from across the ocean and also under what conditions we can expect President Barack Obama’s visit to Ukraine.
“This is a complicated question. One, the United States is not directly a party, it’s the European Union’s decision what they do. I think the States indicates pretty clear that we are also upset about corruption, the judicial process, basically the reforms that Stefan Fuele was talking about pretty much, identical to the American view of this situation. With that being said, Andrii Kliuiev and others are moving forward on this way to reforms rather quickly. Obviously, the Cox-Kwasniewski process resulted in two of the tree people we were talking about being released, so, two-thirds of it is done. Now, the question comes down to, what about Yulia? I think it is the case if Yulia were pardoned like Lutsenko, there would be no doubt whatsoever they would get everything at Vilnius. There is some possibility that they would sign it even with Yulia affair not completely resolved. But that’s not certain, that would be risky. Obviously, the safest option for everybody would be to finish the Yulia affair before we got – and probably that means September or October, so people have enough time to make decisions and all that stuff.”
Do you think the president can pardon Yulia Tymoshenko for signing the Agreement?
“It’s a little complicated. The president doesn’t seem to have a big freedom of action. Apparently, he can pardon her only after the judicial process is over. Which would mean that other two charges would either have to be dismissed by the court, or they have to reach some kind of verdict, which sounds ‘could be pardoned’ or whatever you wanted to do. But it’s unclear with the judicial process, how long that would take. If it’s something that can be finished by September break, then we can move forward. If it’s something they are going to screw around with for a year and a half, more like normal court proceedings in Ukraine, that’s not good. And Ukrainian prestige and legitimacy would continue to suffer for a year and a half, and opinion is split on all this. Quite clearly, the Central and Eastern Europeans, led by Poland, Lithuania, and the Czech Republic, they are insistent that Ukraine receives association and DCFTA.”
This sounds good and what can you say about Angela Merkel’s statement that Tymoshenko’s release is not enough?
“I think, frankly, Chancellor Merkel has said very clearly, don’t bother her about anything until she has real actions. She’s got better things to do, doesn’t want to have arguments, she will tell you what she thinks in October, after she is finished. She’s not pounding on the table and demanding, she’s focused on her real act.”
Some people in Ukraine believe that Merkel can lose the up-coming elections and a representative of the Social Democrats may be more disposed to Ukraine. What can you say about it?
“Firstly, it does not look like Merkel is going to lose, the question is how big will she win? Secondly, I don’t think any German politician is going to take a political risk for Ukraine. And any new incoming chancellor, if they say ‘we don’t care about Tymoshenko,’ they will get really criticized by other Germans. The Germans need to have a good story on reforms with a good story on judicial reform, and then the Germans are safe and they will go forward. I’m not a great fan of Yulia Tymoshenko, but there’s no doubt that her episode has done more damage to Ukraine than any single factor during the last four or five years.
“And we still have seven more months to work, and nobody’s going to make a decision certainly until September or October, probably October. We have a lot of time to improve. And even the Party of Regions, and Klitschko, and Yatseniuk, they are starting to work to get past reform, because they know that the European association is in the best interest of Ukrainian people. That’s great! There are finally no more fist fights, just passing legislation. I think that’s very good.”
A lot has been said at the conference about shale gas and that it can eventually undermine Russia’s position in the industry. But when can this really happen?
“Shale gas develops more slowly than people think. It’s going to take us a lot of time to reverse the LNG plants so they go out rather than come in. That takes 5 billion dollars per plant, and we’ve got 22 of them. We have environmental issues, we’re going to have to go to court and the Congress will make a decision on export decision. In 10 years from now, I think we will have large amounts of shale going to Europe, at least to Western Europe.”
You probably heard that on one of the panels where the issue of energy security was discussed Radek Sikorski said that Poland would be happy to have another pipeline. Isn’t this a dangerous game of Warsaw in regard to Kyiv?
“The foreign minister is very sophisticated in his diplomacy. Technically speaking, Yamal-2, which goes straight across through Poland into Germany, has been approved 30 or 40 years ago.”
To be more accurate, such memorandum was signed in the fall of 1993.
“I’m pretty sure Prime Minister Tusk will not agree to it to not undermine Ukraine, that’s a higher objective. So I think the Yamal-2 thing is a game, it’s not a proposal. There’s one other thing, they announced it, but they never told the Poles ahead of time. That’s kind of just like a trick play, I think it was supposed to put pressure on Ukraine, on other pipelines. I think Alan Riley is correct and Sikorski is correct. They don’t have the gas or the money to do 27 different pipelines in different directions. Russia has to make some choices, and for some reason, they don’t want to tell us yet what those choices are.”
Former US Ambassador Steven Pifer said that Kyiv thinks that the location of Ukraine is more important than it actually is.
“I often don’t agree with Steve Pifer. Look, Ukraine geographically is between Europe and Russia. I don’t think they’ve done anything to exaggerate that. I think President Barroso met with President Yanukovych on February 25. What President Barroso said, was that Ukraine should trade with the DCFTA and with the Customs Union in a limited way and Ukraine could do both: EU and CU. That was a proposal from Europe to Ukraine, not the other way around. So, the Europeans are encouraging normal trade and energy relations with both consumers and suppliers. I don’t think that’s manipulative, I don’t think that’s balancing or bargaining between. Ukraine doesn’t feel multi-vector to me anymore. They are seeking a permanent association with Europe and trying to maintain – I mean the problem that Ukraine has with Russia came a long time before, and that’s the same problem we’ve always been having with the pipeline since early 1990s, and it needs to be fixed. Also, between you and me, nobody in Ukraine strikes me as metronic, they could play this. For the most part, they are interested in the very narrow aspects of European politics: trade, peace, liberalization, very specific things. They don’t go around playing Kissinger games in the middle of the night in Paris or London, it’s just not their style. Frankly, my complaint is so few senior officials from Ukraine come to Europe, I could use many more people out there communicating. The only people that show up in Europe are all these lobbyists who screw things up. And frankly, Ukraine could do itself a favor by having everybody fire their lobbyists and basically send real officials that are really Ukrainians representing their country.”
Now in Ukraine large US companies are engaged in the exploration of shale gas. Does it mean that they feel comfortable in here?
“Obviously, the president of the United States and the Secretary of State Kerry are very interested in successes of the big oils, they’re getting interested in Shell, Chevron, or in Ukraine Exxon Mobil’s everywhere. And this is a positive development. Energy sphere, energy security, diversity of supply, energy security of Europe – we like all this stuff. Obviously, there are still concerns about the business environment: VAT refunds and all this stuff, the rules change all the time, the tax police tend to show up for weird reasons. I think the general feeling is the big oil companies are big boys, they can defend themselves pretty easily, they are quite tough characters and they can stand up for themselves pretty easily. The small and mid-size businesses, they can get hurt, they will continually be pressured both in the DCFTA mechanisms and in American mechanisms to clean up the business environment. The rule of law is clear and the rules are clear and you can’t change VAT refund and you can’t change tax policy overnight, just to see an attractive company. I think as a prediction in the second Obama administration, I will predict that as early as this summer, assuming things are going well towards Vilnius, you will see a higher level visits, more senior officials, maybe Secretary Kerry this year, and if Ukraine is successful at Vilnius, I think President Obama would be considering some time in 2014. I think Obama is truly interested in the success of Ukraine and also in maintaining some kind of relationships with Russia. I think that they are aware that perhaps not enough attention was paid to Ukraine at the higher levels previously, and particularly now that Ukraine is working very closely with the European Union, that’s a good sign to America that we should do the same thing with the European Union too. It will take a little time, because Obama still hasn’t chosen his European people for his second administration, but I think when he does, Ukraine is going to be on the map.”
You said that John Kerry might come to Ukraine with an official visit. Does it mean that the Ukrainian authorities have to release Tymoshenko and must demonstrate progress in implementing reforms in order for this to happen, since it is known that Washington insists on her release?
“Well, if Andrii Kliuiev and the rest of the people on whatever that Council of Ministers is working, if they can keep this pace of reform all the way to Vilnius, and if parliament enacts, they will get a very good story. I think it’s up to Cox and Kwasniewski to try to bring this political problem to an end. But on the other hand, we can’t order courts of foreign countries to dismiss charges, we can’t tell people who is innocent and who is guilty, but we can’t let the process take forever. If we are just talking about – not argue about guilt or innocence, but Yulia Tymoshenko has been in jail for a couple of years now on a six or seven year charge, which is a vague charge. In most parts of the world, even in Russia, you’ll be looking at releasing her at this point anyway. If we just look at honest merits, I mean, medical condition, humanitarian reasons, all sorts of arguments, then closing this chapter this year would be an extremely good idea.”
