Last week Ukraine’s information space received a massive infusion of opinion poll ratings. They came from both supporters and staffs of presidential hopefuls, and from sociological companies that have positioned themselves as independent think tanks.
An unimaginatively named Russian company, Public Opinion, has publicized the results of an opinion poll conducted in Ukraine among 2,000 respondents, according to which Yanukovych has caught up with Yushchenko in terms of popularity. According to the poll, both of them will receive 32% of the popular vote in the first round and 38% in the runoff. The Russian Club in Ukraine has disseminated this information.
These results contrast sharply with the findings of Ukrainian sociologists. According to them, the gap between the two presidential frontrunners — Viktor Yushchenko and Viktor Yanukovych — remains almost unchanged and on September 29 was 6.7% in the first round and 7.6% in the runoff in Yushchenko’s favor. Five of Ukraine’s most trusted sociological think tanks — SOCIS , Kyiv International Sociology Institute, Social Monitoring Center, Razumkov Center, and the Democratic Initiatives Fund — publicized these ratings last week. Judging from the way voters’ preferences differed regionally, in late September Yushchenko would garner most of the votes in Ukraine’s west (71%) and center (41%), while Yanukovych would prevail in the east (48%) and south (34%).
Sociologists have also gathered data on how many Ukrainians gave their signatures in support of the presidential nominees. According to Socis Center President Mykola Churylov, if you were to add up the signatures that were collected by the twenty-four nominees and submitted to the Central Election Committee, the result would be over thirty million signatures, which is impossible. “Only 27% of those polled, or eleven to twelve million Ukrainians, admitted to giving their signatures in support of one of the candidates,” Churylov noted, adding: “I think the thirty million dreamed-up signatures exist on paper only.”
“Most Ukrainians abroad do not know how they can vote in the elections, and many are not familiar with the platforms of the presidential nominees,” concludes the Euro-Atlantic Cooperation Institute, which conducted a poll in September in ten countries with the largest number of Ukrainian labor migrants. This study was presented last week during a roundtable discussion attended by the parliamentary committee on European integration. There are no official statistics on the number of Ukrainians who currently live or work abroad. Unofficial estimates point to seven million or one-fifth of all eligible voters.
The Euro-Atlantic Cooperation Institute does not claim that the results of its poll are representative. In the absence of reliable statistics it is difficult to paint a demographic picture of Ukrainian labor migrants. This was a survey in which those polled were requested to pass on questionnaires to their acquaintances. It covered Ukrainians residing in towns across Spain, Portugal, Canada, Italy, the Czech Republic, Poland, the US, and Greece. In Russia and Great Britain, only Ukrainians living in Surgut and London were polled. Ukrainians abroad seem to be very active voters: 95% of them know about the upcoming elections, 86% wish to cast their votes, 73% view the presidential elections as a matter of personal importance, 40% hope that with the election of a new president the situation in Ukraine will improve, 74% know for whom they would like to vote, and 78.84% of them intend to cast their vote for Viktor Yushchenko (78% of those polled in Surgut called him their candidate), 3% for Oleksandr Moroz, and a mere 2.5% for Viktor Yanukovych.
Thus far, the Central Election Committee has registered 113 voting places at Ukrainian diplomatic missions abroad. Given the highest estimates of Ukrainians abroad, the ratio is 62,000 voters per every such voting place. They will obviously not be able to handle such large numbers of people, which means that many will not be able to vote.
According to estimates by People’s Deputy Yury Kliuchkovsky, 113 voting places will be able to handle only 200,000 Ukrainians. However, as Ukraine’s Deputy Foreign Minister Valentyn Nalyvaichenko told the participants of the roundtable, his ministry has requested a number of governments to set up additional voting places in other cities, except for those with Ukrainian embassies or consulates. Although Ukrainian laws provide for such a possibility, this runs counter to the laws of Canada, Greece, and Germany. The US Undersecretary of State has said that he does not guarantee the “safety and status of voting places that may be opened outside the diplomatic offices of Ukraine,” according to Valentyn Nalyvaichenko. He had to answer all organizational questions from the roundtable participants, as no Central Election Committee representatives showed up for the meeting.
Mr. Nalyvaichenko refuted allegations that his ministry is not disseminating information actively enough. As he put it, all the necessary information about the elections is available on Web sites of Ukrainian embassies, and Ukrainians’ centers abroad also have this information.
The key message that the Foreign Ministry wants to deliver to our compatriots is that to participate in the elections they do not have to be registered at Ukrainian consulates; all that is required is a Ukrainian passport. Those who are registered at consulates (only 26%, according to the poll) will be included in the preliminary voter lists. They will be able to cast their votes after producing any ID. In CIS countries, where Ukrainians can reside without an international passport, they will be able to vote after producing their internal passports.
Yet the organization of the elections abroad remains a cause for concern. How many Ukrainian labor migrants visit Web sites of Ukrainian embassies? Do all Ukrainian centers have enough information? What about those who want to vote, but cannot travel thousands of kilometers to the nearest voting place? How do we avoid including the same Ukrainians in voter lists at home and abroad? Obviously, all these considerations provide opportunities for election fraud and cast doubt on the democratic nature of the elections abroad. Meanwhile, their conduct will not only demonstrate the country’s attitude toward their citizens abroad and its ability to guarantee their rights, but will also affect the legitimacy of the successful candidate. While the consequences of the Florida vote still haunt the US administration, the same might happen to the new Ukrainian leadership, should the elections in Ukraine’s overseas constituency be bungled.
