Today one can frequently see billboards that claim “The Donbas does not change its convictions. Yanukovych is our president!” in the east of Ukraine. But they prove wrong as it does change. According to experts, Viktor Yanukovych is losing his monopoly across the region.
These elections witness a kind of electoral diffusion. Unlike in 2004, now the candidates are hardly associated with particular areas in Ukraine. There is no more “foe complex.” The leading candidates are firmly winning other candidates’ territory. Eastern Ukraine perceives Tymoshenko in the same calm way Yanukovych is perceived in the west.
Last week Yanukovych dared to make a heroic deed by paying a visit to Ivano-Frankivsk, the city of his “egg fame.” No problems occurred this time. During the welcome ceremonies Yanukovych received two embroidered skirts as presents, the first one – in Ivano-Frankivsk, the second one – in Lviv. He promised to wear them. There was only a 20-member group Young People’s Movement activists to shout “Shame!” for him. But this did not spoil the mood of the leading regionalist whatsoever. Yanukovych was moved, “I was generally very impressed and touched by the way I was received in Halychyna.”
In her turn, Tymoshenko, too, has received a warm welcome in Luhansk oblast. Her visit was linked to the opening ceremony of the underpass on the circular road. Tymoshenko was not left without a present either: she was given a huge piece of glittering black coal in a red heart frame. The only thing that cast shadow on the visit was the fact that the premier’s billboards had been splashed with blue paint. The members of the BYuT headquarters grew immensely enraged. They issued an angry statement blaming the leader of the Party of Regions for violating his own code of honor the second day he signed a related document.
However, Oleksii Holobutsky, an expert from the Situation Modeling Agency, considers that those small harms in reality indicate that Tymoshenko enjoys growing popularity across the region. The local regionalists have gone off into hysterics, so to say.
The Sotsipolis Center of Social Technologies on request of the Situation Modeling Agency has recently presented the results of the poll “Assessment of the sociopolitical situation in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts on the eve of the Ukrainian presidential elections” conducted on December 7 through 20, 2009 (with its field round taking place on December 9 through 15).
The main discrepancies between Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts refer to premier’s support. Whereas 5.2 percent of those who are going to vote are ready to support Tymoshenko, people with the same opinion total 10 percent in Luhansk oblast. Tymoshenko’s overall rating in Donbas makes 6.8 percent. In what concerns the other candidates, there are practically no apparent discrepancies between the two Donbas oblasts.
In overall, Yanukovych enjoys a 52.6 percent support in Donbas (with 51.5 and 52 percent in Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, respectively).
Serhii Tihibko has made a leap to the third place (he has overall 6 percent in Donbas, with 5.7 and 6.6 percent in Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, respectively). By this he has confidently gotten the foot of Petro Symonenko.
“High percentage of Tihibko’s popularity in the region should also be assessed as a sign of ruination of many-year political monopoly of the Party of regions,” Holobutsky considers. “Analyzing the received results one should take into consideration a number of additional factors. First and foremost, it is the high percentage of those who refused to answer. In the region with a total political monopoly, people who refuse to give answers about their political likes, at minimum, will not vote for the party of the local authorities, in this case – Party of Regions and Yanukovych.”
It has already been emphasized that Luhansk oblast is a kind of blank spot on the Donbas map. An indication of this was an incident that has recently taken place there, when 18 deputies of the Rovenky City Council left the Party of Regions Faction and created the Our City Group. Incidentally, Yurii Ziukov, the director general of the Rovenkyantratsyt Company and this group’s leader was all over Tymoshenko throughout her visit to Luhansk oblast. But, without doubt, the symbol of BYuT’s eastward expansion is Natalia Korolevska, supervisor of the BYuT eastward direction.
The experts also note that the significance of one percent gained in Donbas is considerably higher than that in Halychyna, because Donbas is a densely populated region. Besides, the majority of respondents (85.7 percent) are intending to go to elections and vote. So, with everything considered, namely Donbas can play the crucial role in these elections.
