Now the second wind of the revolution which took place in Central Europe 25 years ago is felt. In Romania it almost came to a revolution, perhaps because the second round of presidential elections was won by the opposition party representative, who was losing by 10 percent of votes in the first round. Also, the spirit of revolution could be sensed in Prague, where the 25th anniversary of the Velvet Revolution was celebrated. There Czechs threw eggs at Zeman during a ceremony attended by presidents of Central European countries. In this way they wanted to express their indignation against the socialist president, who supports Putin’s policy and the cancellation of sanctions against Russia which had annexed Crimea and invaded eastern Ukraine.
However, the largest protest rallies have been taking place in Hungary lately. In particular, the fourth largest demonstration in a month took place in Budapest. It was called “The day of public indignation.” Some participants of the 10,000-strong rally in the capital of Hungary tried even to storm the parliament, but the police repelled this attack. At the same time, smaller rallies took place in 20 other cities.
Demonstrators demanded the resignation of Prime Minister Viktor Orban and six government members, starting with the head of tax service who was accused of corruption. People chanted “Orban, go!”, “Europe, Europe!”, and held posters with “We will not pay taxes to criminals” written on them.
The rally masterminds explained on their Facebook page A kozfelhaborodas napja (Hungarian for “the day of public indignation”) that they are against government corruption, tax increase, and the current foreign policy, and at the same time, they demand “freedom, transparency, responsible governance, and a European ideology.”
The Day addressed Ukrainian and Czech experts with a request to comment on the protests in countries of the former socialist camp, explain the depth of problems, and how the people react to the pro-Russian policies of their leaders.
“PEOPLE SEE THE RUSSIAN DANGER”
Roman JOCH, director, Civil Institute, Prague:
“Firstly, I will say that the situation in the Czech Republic is somewhat different from the situation in Hungary and Romania. The political situation in our country is quite stable. However, president Zeman became a great disappointment for a significant part of Czech society because of his policies, views, behavior, and vulgar remarks.
“There was a demonstration on November 17, the anniversary of the Velvet Revolution, where Zeman was bombarded with eggs. People are dissatisfied with him and think he disgraces the post of the president with his behavior. People do not like that a lot of his statements were servile in relation to Russia and Putin, in particular regarding Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.
“It was a protest against the president, but it will not affect the parliament and the government. According to the Czech Constitution, the president has a wide range of powers, but he does not have daily executive political power. That is why I do not expect a revolution or anti-governmental protests. However, I think that protests against Zeman will continue.”
“THE SITUATION IN HUNGARY IS MUCH MORE SERIOUS, AND THEREFORE PROTESTS MIGHT BE MORE VIGOROUS”
What can you say about the protests in Hungary?
“This country is politically divided between two main camps: the nationalist conservative one, headed by Prime Minister Viktor Orban, and the social democratic opposition. I would say that the situation in Hungary is much more serious, and therefore protests might be more vigorous. Orban and his Fidesz party won the election with a great margin. However, they took a step which caused the dissatisfaction of even their supporters. I mean taxing the Internet. This step is extremely unpopular among Hungarians. It was Orban’s first big mistake, which can indeed undermine his support among Hungarians.
Roman JOCH: “I can only state that in the Visegrad group (Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and the Czech Republic) three leaders (Zeman, Fico, and Orban) are strangely enough supporters of Russia. This fact is not easy to account for. So far only Poland has been different, and very wary of Russia. I could think that as a former communist, Fico might have fallen in the tracks of the old socialist way of thinking. Zeman is a narcissist, his supporters are die-hard socialists. Orban had never been a communist, conversely, he was a bold young anti-communist, fighter, and political activist. But his thinking has changed, he believes that liberal European society is weak, corrupt, while seeing Russian society as active and effective.”
“Firstly, Orban is a Hungarian nationalist. A lot of European officials criticized the prime minister and his supporters, who consider themselves to be Hungarian patriots and nationalists. Meanwhile, their critics, social democrats, call them anti-Europeans. That is why protesters demand ‘more Europe.’
“Secondly, as regards ‘less Russia.’ It is explained by the fact that Orban did not criticize the Russian government, and even praised some aspects of Putin’s regime. Moreover, the Hungarian prime minister struck a lot of economic deals, especially in the energy sector and gas supply to Hungary, and negotiated the construction of a new nuclear power plant in the country by Russians. And personally I think those economic ties are dangerous for Hungary, because they will make Budapest dependent on Moscow. In Russia the same people are in the energy and security blocs of the government, so you can never strike a fair economic deal with Russia without getting into the zone of Russia’s political influence. And this is dangerous. Opposition thinks that on the one hand, Orban is too anti-European, and on the other, it is very strange, because he is either blind, or is consciously willing to get into the Russian trap by tying Hungary too closely with Russia in matters of energy cooperation, which leads to energy dependence.”
“WE SHOULD NEVER UNDERESTIMATE THE KREMLIN’S INFLUENCE”
Why do you think is it so hard for Central European countries to break free from their dependence from Russia, even though it has been 25 years now since they left the Soviet camp?
“It is hard to say. I can only state that in the Visegrad group (Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and the Czech Republic) three leaders (Zeman, Fico, and Orban) are strangely enough supporters of Russia. This fact is not easy to account for. So far only Poland has been different, and very wary of Russia. I could think that as a former communist, Fico might have fallen in the tracks of the old socialist way of thinking. Zeman is a narcissist, his supporters are die-hard socialists. Orban had never been a communist, conversely, he was a bold young anti-communist, fighter, and political activist. But his thinking has changed, he believes that liberal European society is weak, corrupt, while seeing Russian society as active and effective.
“We should never underestimate the Kremlin’s influence. However, the impact of the old Soviet regime is probably most obvious on Fico. I have no doubts that Russia is trying to affect our public, discussions, and the political process. We can only conjecture about the scale of Russian activity to influence our society.”
But it seems that the public in your countries is becoming more alert, as can be seen from the protests in Hungary and the Czech Republic.
“People are waking up and see the Russian danger. This should not be underestimated.”
“THIS IS NOT THE DEGREE WHICH COULD BE DANGEROUS FOR THE INCUMBENT GOVERNMENT”
Dmytro TKACH, former ambassador of Ukraine to Hungary:
“Of course, there is an opposition to the incumbent government in Hungary. First and foremost, this is such a political force as the Hungarian Socialist Party, which is competing with Orban’s Fidesz. At a certain moment the absolutely incorrect and wrong behavior of the socialist prime minister Ferenc Gyurcsany caused the socialist to suffer a crushing defeat. Yet they stayed in the parliament, and they have their own structure, ideology, and organizations across Hungary. Of course, socialists are using the opportunity, given that the economic situation in the country is far from best, and facts of corruption are periodically made public. Thus all these protests that are taking place now are organized by this political force. Of course, some other forces also join the protests.
“Yet it would be premature to say that this poses a threat for Orban or his government. Orban enjoys a high popularity rating, he is backed by the majority of the population due to his policy, which falls in with the spirit of Hungarian identity. Or, in other words, it is a matter of pride of being part of the Hungarian nation.
“Here we could recollect the Treaty of Trianon and the Paris Peace Treaties, which deprived Hungary of two-thirds of its territory. Jozsef Antall once famously said that he was the prime minister of 15 million Hungarians, including the 5 million of Hungarians abroad. And this standpoint is widely supported by the Hungarian public.”
Still, this has been the fourth anti-Orban protest. Moreover, the recent rallies were the most massive and they took place in many cities across Hungary.
“This is indeed so. It simply raises the tension in society. This is not the degree which could be dangerous for the incumbent government.”
However, among purely political slogans, the protesters criticized the prime minister’s pro-Russian stand. What can you say about this?
“Yes, such criticism was present there. Why? On the one hand, the opposition is looking for a pretext. Orban is conducting a curious policy. Now he is not particularly popular in the EU, since his stake is on the East: China, India, and Russia. He has big economic projects with Russia. That is why this eastern bias of Orban is not unanimously supported, not even within Fidesz. So, for him these protests have also become an alarm bell. This will make him consider his rhetoric more carefully. However, Orban is quite determined, and once he has an intention, he will implement it by all means. Yet the best word to describe him would be ‘authoritarian.’ By the way, there was only one democrat of all the Hungarian prime ministers, while all the others were authoritarian. So, we should not count on drastic changes in Hungarian policy, both domestic and international.”
“FOR ORBAN AN ALARM BELL IS RINGING”
Do you think that anti-Orban protests will subside?
“The protests can continue and increase, and other forces can join the socialists. There are enough right-wing, nationalist movements which are rather powerful and enjoy support in society. This all can go on. I do not know if he fires the chief of the tax service. However, the system works like this: if your guilt is proven, and if you are involved in corruption, you will be sacked no matter of your stand in the party. Orban will do something to appease protesters, because for him an alarm bell is ringing.”
