On August 15, at the session of the Union State’s [Belarus-Russia. – Ed.] Council of Ministers in Moscow the Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and his Belarusian counterpart Mikhail Myasnikovich came to an agreement that Belarus will buy the Russian gas for price calculated using an “integration” reduction factor starting from 2012. Minsk will get this discount owing to the fact that Belarus joined the Customs Union of Russia and Kazakhstan. “This is giving help and support but not a present,” the Russian prime minister said. According to him, the discount will be defined during the following talks that “will be synchronized with the acquisition of the second part of Beltransgaz by Gazprom.” We would remind you that Gazprom already owns 50 percent of Beltransgaz’s stock. Belarus is ready to sell the rest of the stock if the price for the Russian gas suits Minsk. Previously, Myasnikovich called the sanctions, which were imposed on the Belorussian enterprises by the US and the EU, criminal and made it clear that Belarus counted on Russia’s help.
What do the Belarusians think about the agreement concerning the reduced price for the Russian gas and about the prospects of preserving their statehood after Putin’s declarations that Minsk has to struggle for the complete reunion of Belarus and Russia? The deputy editor-in-chief of BelGazeta Viktor MARTYNOVICH answered the questions of The Day.
“The main version we have is that Belarus is offered the reduced price for gas in order to put pressure upon Ukraine. I do not know whether this version is credible. I would rather think that the reduced gas price is made conditional on selling 50 percent more of Beltransgaz’s stock to Gazprom. The Belarusian situation is examined along with the Ukrainian one as a large auction for selling the Belarusian property.
“Our relations with Russia have changed a lot over the last two months. It started two weeks ago when Putin said at Seliger [youth forum. – Ed.] that Belarus and Russia had to completely reunite and that Belarus had to struggle for this. If someone had said something similar two months ago they would have been laughed at. But now everyone takes this prospect seriously and discuss that he [Putin. – Ed.] can drive Belarus to the union with Russia since the economic situation is hopeless. We have to sell the enterprises. I remind you that Belarus has received a 2-billion loan from Russia secured by 30 percent of Belaruskalii’s [Belarus potassium monopoly. – Ed.] stock. ‘The beauty’ of the situation is in the fact that President Lukashenko had earlier declared that he had priced this enterprise at 30 billion dollars. It means that we sold 30 percent of Belaruskalii for 2 billion dollars. They have started implementing the schemes indicative of the hopeless situation and that is why they have started selling large objects. According to the Belarusian economists, Belarus has to involve 3.5 billion dollars of credits by the end of the year in order to prevent the social and economic burst, skyrocketing of the municipal services rates and public protests accordingly. They predict that in October and November people will go into the streets again. That is why they are now negotiating for selling the property in order to get these credits.”
Probably, the Belarusian go-vernment should have tried to do their best to drop sanctions of the US and the EU and, thus, make it possible taking up the loans and selling the Belarusian goods to Europe.
“After the demonstration on December 19, 2010, was broken up, the regime in Belarus has changed. The foreign policy is not multi-vector anymore. Last week they released 9 political prisoners. In general, they had imprisoned 41 people. There is an opinion that the demonstration was dispersed and people were imprisoned due to the activity of a certain Moscow lobby in the Belarusian president’s circle. This lobby assured that Lukashenko had nobody to negotiate with except Putin and Medvedev. Lukashenko has to do a lot just to start the talks with the EU. He has to release all the political prisoners, three of them were candidates for presidency. Two of them Andrei Salnikov and Nikolai Statkevich are invincible. They are experienced in struggling with the regime and do not appeal for pardon. If they are released they will start gathering demonstrations, taking people into the streets and people will follow them for sure. I heard that in prison they call Salnikov ‘the President’. In the perception of many Belarusians he is the president and not the person governing the country now. It can be explained by the extent of repressions. Lukashenko cannot release all of them to start the talks since there is a threat of political destabilization.”
Then Belarus has only one way out – to become the 99th federal subject of Russia. Is Lukashenko ready to take this step in order to keep his power?
“I have an impression that Lukashenko is going to take them over again. I do not know what exactly he is going to do but he does not feel like being the head of one of the 99 Russian federal subjects. He is used to the role of the absolute leader with the maximum power. Even now, pretending that he will accept this role Lukashenko probably holds “an ace in the hole”. Probably, when it comes to the talks about merging the monetary systems, he will play his ace by releasing all the political prisoners including Salnikov and Statkevich and declaring to Europe: if it does not save him immediately he will have to unite with Russia and become a buffer state on its territory. Probably, this is his plan, yet I have an impression that he finds it easier to talk to Russia that to the West. When talking to Russia Lukashenko feels more confident since they speak the same language. Russia does not make any terms that would be politically fatal for him. That is why it is easier for him to unite with Russia than, say, change the legislation. The thing is that the Poles presiding now the EU in the person of the foreign minister have declared that they will negotiate with Lukashenko only one issue: the surrender of power. This variant is absolutely different from the one of 2006. Back then they suggested talking about the political freedom and electoral legislation change. Now when he is told that they will talk with him only about surrendering his power during the democratic election without participating in it as Jaruzelski did, the situation is just critical.”
Are the Belarusians people ready to become a part of Russia in order to keep their living standards?
“I have an impression that the people are gradually growing poorer. If this process keeps up the same pace the people will suggest themselves: let us introduce the Russian ruble to stop the inflation and price rise. In general, the people are being quite passive. Under Lukashenko’s government the state self-consciousness was created. Belarusians got used to the idea that Belarus is a sovereign state. However, the national self-consciousness have not been developed since Lukashenko thought that the self-consciousness – based on the language, culture and the history different from the one of the World War II with Orsha Battle and the Grand Duchy of Lithuania – was the nationalists’ prerogative. Taking into account the current reasons, now the situation in Belarus is the best for driving the Belarusians to the union with Russia. We can say that for all these years we have been thinking that we have been cheating Russia since we have been singing the songs about the Slavonic brotherhood and receiving absolutely real cheap energy resources. Now it turned out that Russia has outwitted us since for all these years it has been realizing systematically the plan for the mental annexation of Belarus. Due to the songs sung by Minsk it did not let the national feelings become more radical. It did not let the nation appear as it happened in Ukraine. Notice that nobody offers such scenarios to Ukraine. If the Russian government suggested to Ukraine what it openly suggests to Belarus the scandal would burst out. It is inconceivable! Moscow usually takes the Belarusian independence as a joke. This is the result of the 16-year flirting policy with Russia and we thought that we were winning. It turned out to be false.”
