Last Saturday the Social Democratic Party Smer-SD headed by former prime minister Robert Fico confidently won the early election to the Slovakian parliament. Having enlisted the support of 44.95 percent of voters this party received 84 mandates in the parliament of 150 MPs. The Christian Democratic Movement (KHD) got 8.79 percent of votes (16 mandates). The party Ordinary People and Independent Personalities received 8.44 percent of votes (16 mandates), Most-Hid got 6.96 percent (13 mandates), the right-wing party of former prime minister Mikulas Dzurinda SDKU-DS received 5.7 percent (11 mandates). The party SAS will also be in the Slovakian parliament with 5.47 percent of votes and 10 mandates. We remind our readers that the election was held two years earlier than it was supposed since last October one of the small parties of the governing coalition left it because of the disagreement with the prime minister concerning the enlargement of the EU stabilization fund. As a result, the government lost the support of the parliamentary majority, was given a censure vote and the EU plan was never ratified.
The social democrats are going to augment taxes, however, the main topic of their election campaign was the so-called Gorilla file that was probably prepared by the Slovak secret services and spread on the Internet last December. The file declared that in 1998-2006 the financial group Penta supposedly bribed the politicians related to the then right-of-center Mikulas Dzurinda’s government.
How can such a victory of the socialists be explained? How will former prime minister’s comeback influence Slovakia’s relations with the EU and Ukraine? The Day asked the head of the Bratislava Institute for Public Affairs Grigorij MESEZNIKOV to comment the results of the elections.
“The right-to-center parties lost their support because of the recent affairs related to the corruption. However, the thing is that all those affairs are in the past since everything happened back in 2005-06. That is why I think that it is not the result of the general moods of the right-of-center electorate; the government fell down because it was unable to resolve the internal problems. As a result, the voters who traditionally support the right-of-center democratic parties just turned away from them. That is why Smer-SD managed to mobilize their supporters and more voters participated in the election than last time. As a result, the left-of-center party received more votes than at the previous election. After 20 percent of votes of the parties that did not enter the parliament were shared, Smer-SD benefited. Now our government will be formed by one party for the first time since 1990.”
What do you think the Slovakian president Gasparovic meant when saying that it was the most important election since 1990?
“I do not think it is true. It is not the question of the new form of government or a new regime. In my opinion, it is his personal perception since he is a representative of the political spectrum that has just come to power. Gasparovic was the candidate of Smer-SD and I think he is looking forward to the victory of the political force that had supported him at the presidential election. In fact, not any dramatic changes that would be the evidence of the new development are happening. We will stay where we have been: in the EU and NATO. The political map and political forces are changing. Naturally, Smer-SD will pursue the policy inherent for left-wing socialist parties.”
In other words, the Slovaks have supported the ideas of the party speaking about the need to tax the rich heavily?
“We will see. It is true that they gave such promises before the election. It is a left-wing party and it is natural that it tried to enlist the support of the voters who consider themselves socially unprotected. The suggestions of Smer-SD to heavily tax the people who earn more than the rest had been supported in this environment. It also concerns the governmental investments and higher expenses on social needs. In the situation of the financial and economic crisis and uncertainty, the significant part of people believed the promises of Smer-SD that this party is able to assure the high level of social guaranties, strong social policy and strong role of the state.”
Shall we expect the relations between Slovakia and the EU to change? Previously, the socialists criticized the stabilization package for the eurozone signed by the right-of center government.
“It is too early to speak about it now. The thing is that at the first conference Fico declared that he would stay within the current framework of the relations between the EU and Slovakia. We rather expect fewer problems. The previous government had a liberal party that did not agree with the mechanism of the euro preservation. This is why the government resigned. Smer-SD has positioned itself as a pro-European force. It is possible that some problems might occur. It will be difficult for this party to explain their electors why Slovakia will have to stay within these limits. All of this might be quite painful. The maximum budget deficit and foreign debt are also defined. That is why everything has to be considered. The people who supported this party expect the social conditions to improve and the government to allocate the money for the social programs. Of course, the European standards limit the government in this. However, there have not been any anti-EU discussions so far.”
Isn’t there the threat that Meciar’s age will return or that the left-of-center politicians give in to temptation to follow the example of the Hungarian government that started limiting the freedom of speech and provoked dissatisfaction not only within the country but in Brussels as well?
“Theoretically, such possibility exists, judging from the previous years when Smer-SD was in the government. It has had such intentions since then. However, considering that Viktor Orban is now not very popular in the EU and Hungary is criticized by many EU members and within the country by the media and the opposition, Robert Fico just does not have any reasons for taking this stand. It should be noted that this party has certain authoritarian tendencies. However, I would like to believe that the pragmatism will win and the left-of-center politicians will not make their situation yet more complicated and will not provoke criticism from the EU.”
How will the relations between Slovakia and Ukraine develop considering that in November 2009 when meeting Vladimir Putin Fico declared that his government had always been supporting Moscow in the gas conflict with Ukraine? Will he support Ukraine’s integration into the EU as the previous Slovakian government did?
“It is true that Robert Fico can be considered one of the most pro-Russian Slovak politicians. It displays not only in the fact that he supported Russia’s position in the gas conflict and did not support Ukraine. He repeatedly declared that he positively assessed Russia’s social development. He spoke about Putin as a person who had returned Russia its national proud. Fico attended the congress of the party United Russia on September 24 when Putin and Medvedev declared that they would swap their places. In other words, he sympathizes with Russia. His attitude towards Ukraine is still unclear. Considering that supporting Ukraine’s integration into the EU makes part of our foreign policy, I do not think he will move from this position. However, he will not be as enthusiastic as Radiceva’s or Dzurinda’s governments thinking that the development eastwards from our borders means Ukraine’s integration into the EU and, probably, NATO. Fico did not say anything about it. We should wait and everything will quickly clarify.”
