On January 30 Russia’s Premier Vladimir Putin fed his fellow citizens another mouthful of campaign rhetoric after Vedomosti carried his article entitled “We need a new economy,” offering his vision of Russia’s future. It boils down to the need to build an economy with competitive industries, infrastructures, effective services, and agribusiness using modern technologies, what with Russia’s vast material and manpower resources. This article stood every chance of merging with lots of other campaign materials, but for the author’s rating (experts say Putin will be Russia’s next president and will stay in the Kremlin for the next two terms). Ukraine, of course, is closely following the domestic political situation in Russia. The Day asked its experts for comment on Putin’s new economic program and its consequences for Ukraine.
Oleksandr PASKHAVER, president, Economic Development Center:
“I hope to God Russia will evolve effectively, yet the way Putin sees this progress contradicts certain institutional specifics in terms of [Russian] mentality. Russia’s economy can showprogress only when given free enterprise. There is none. All our neighboring country can expect to achieve, given its mentality, is a degree of GDP per capita growth. A path being followed by the Arab oil-producing countries, considering that their key budget revenues come from natural resources. This doesn’t bring forth reform, just as this doesn’t turn them into advanced countries. Therefore, I can’t see Russia shortly turning into a prospering country teeming with innovative projects, as outlined in Putin’s article. There are no objective prerequisites. Ukraine will run no risks along these lines. Changing an economy calls for changes within the person who plans such reforms. This also calls for special approaches.
“Should Russia miraculously show good progress and develop a powerful economy, Ukraine would run extra risks, assuming that Russia would have more resources in implementing its liberal imperialism idea. In other words, Russia would be in a position to seize and/or keep under control the most attractive industries of the neighboring countries.”
Yaroslav ZHALILO, head of the Economic and Social Strategy Department, National Institute of Strategic Studies; president, Anti-Crisis Research Center:
“One has to realize that Russia is an increasingly dangerous rival on the post-Soviet market, in terms of a broad range of goods and services, including high technologies. Ukraine has a fair share in this market as a machine-building supplier. If and when Putin’s reforms are implemented, Russia will (a) toughen the competition for the Ukrainian manufacturers, and (b) lower demand for Ukrainian products, particularly on the Russian market. Russia is sure to look for higher machine-building technologies elsewhere.
“Ukraine’s exports to Russia (standard railroad equipment, electrical machinery, and so on) leave much to be desired in terms of high technologies. I believe that Russia will look for better technologies on other markets. This is another challenge facing Ukraine. This country must raise the innovative production level.
“There is a positive trend. Ukraine has good prospects of cooperation with Russia in the scientific and technological domain. Scientific and technological schools in both countries are collaborating on a well- and long-tried basis. There are various joint experimental production and hi-tech-testing projects underway. The aircraft reseach and development sector is another graphic example. In other words, Ukraine stands a chance of receiving a partner in the ongoing progressive technological process.”
