On reading the Russian press, the statements of that country’s diplomats, members of the State Duma and high-ranking officials, one gets the impression that that large nation sees the Brussels ceremony where Montenegro and NATO powers signed the protocol of accession as the greatest debacle it is facing in the international arena. Even a possible sharp drop in oil prices cannot be compared to it.
Why, then, is Moscow’s ruling elite so excited? A small Balkan country, ranking 155th by area and 165th by population globally, and located relatively far away from Russia, is joining the Western alliance. Albania did it earlier, and no one in the Kremlin cared much.
Militarily, NATO gains nothing from the accession of Montenegro. Its all-volunteer army numbers 3,500 soldiers, while all T-55 tanks it had have been disposed of, with one left for the museum. The Montenegrin navy consists of two missile frigates, which are being converted into patrol boats, two missile boats, two barges, two longboats, and even a motorboat. The nation’s air force operates only helicopters. It is clear, then, that all this might is so huge and so threatening for the Russian state, that the Kremlin is ready to create two new divisions in the Western Military District and one in the Southern one, to counteract the threat. It would be funny if it were not so sad.
For quite a long time, pro-Russian agents in Montenegro have been trying to prevent that country’s accession to the alliance. To achieve it, they have opted for a so-called referendum. Up to a certain time, Russian leaders clung to the hope that the pro-Serbian, and therefore anti-NATO sentiment would prevail. Indeed, many Montenegrins are nostalgic about the union with Serbia.
To protest the NATO accession, people went to noisy rallies in the capital Podgorica in the fall of 2015, which sometimes ended in clashes with police. The Russian establishment observed it all with unconcealed glee, Duma members came to persuade Montenegrins, occasionally threatening them with a breakdown in bilateral fraternal relations, a ban on Russian citizens buying property in Montenegro, a travel ban for Montenegrin resorts and other counter-sanctions.
In response, the government in Podgorica has increased to 90 days the visa-free entry period for Russians and facilitated property deals.
The first blow to the anti-NATO movement in Montenegro came from another fraternal nation, Serbia. The parliamentary election there saw an overwhelming victory for supporters of the EU membership. Everyone understands that the next step for the Serbs will be applying to join NATO.
All opinion polls in Montenegro show a steady increase in support for the alliance membership. The parliamentary election is coming soon, and it will serve as a kind of referendum. Anti-NATO parties have their chance to gain a majority. The Kremlin’s problem is that nothing of the kind will happen. Most likely, the new Montenegrin parliament will be even more pro-Western.
Why is the Kremlin so worried, then, if military threat is actually a non-issue?
The first factor is purely psychological. An Orthodox country, known for long-standing historical ties with Russia, has gone into the Western camp for good. One may recall the famous saying of the Russian Tsar Alexander III, who proposed a toast: “I drink to the health of my only friend, the King of Montenegro, for Russia has no other friends so far.” It still has no other friends. In the words of a famous movie character [Comrade Saakhov from Kidnapping, Caucasian Style. – Ed.], “it is insulting, yes?”
Secondly. As many as 12 states, plus partially recognized Kosovo, are wholly or partly located in the Balkans. Nine of them are already members of NATO, while Bosnia and Herzegovina and Macedonia have publicly set themselves a goal of joining the alliance. Seemingly friendly Serbia is effectively surrounded by NATO countries. The leadership of that country has been recently expanding its relations with the alliance. The future direction of the Serbian government’s policy is quite predictable, then. Thus, Russia is finding itself effectively expelled from this strategically important region of Europe, through which Gazprom plans to supply gas to Europe, after all.
Thirdly. Despite all the warnings and even threats from the Kremlin, the alliance’s enlargement is going forward. According to US Permanent Representative to NATO Douglas Lute, “this is an important signal for Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. We show that the door is open.”
It follows that when it will come to real NATO accession for Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova, the Kremlin’s objections will be disregarded. The true obstacles have to do not with the Russian opposition, but rather with slow internal reforms in the three countries, including in the field of transformation of their militaries to make them NATO-compliant. The Kremlin perceives it as a sign of a decline in its political role not only in Europe, but also worldwide. In a sense, it is true. One cannot make one’s neighbors take into account one’s interests if one has only contempt for the said neighbors’ own interests. Worse still, in this case, one behaves like an international gangster and turns signed treaties into meaningless pieces of paper.
Fourthly. Georgia’s rapprochement with and subsequent accession to the alliance will substantially change the political configuration in the South Caucasus, starting with the aggravation of the Abkhazian and South Ossetian disputes. The Kremlin is even more worried about the situation around Armenia. According to Gazeta.Ru, “in the case of Georgia’s accession to NATO, Armenia, which is now an ally of Russia, may find an alternative. This could change the balance of power.”
The Russian authorities are observing the intensification of military cooperation between Georgia, Azerbaijan and Turkey with obvious anxiety. Their joint military exercises with American units are very indicative. In such circumstances, Armenia is growing more and more isolated from Russia, which will necessarily be reflected in the Armenian government’s policies. After the last bout of armed conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, many Armenian decision-makers are pondering how reliable Russia actually is as an ally.
Fifthly. Russia’s threats to punish Montenegro for its accession to NATO turn out to be nothing more than ephemeral. According to Lenta.ru, the country accounts for 11 percent of all Russian air tickets sold for June 2016. For comparison, bookings in Crimean hotels have fallen by 20 percent just as the high season is starting.
It seems that the phantom pains of Russian politicians over Montenegro’s accession to NATO make ordinary citizens neither very concerned nor afraid.
The caravan of the alliance’s enlargement moves on, even as the Kremlin dog barks loudly.
