Ukraine and the Visegrad nations have agreed a new format of cooperation, according to President Petro Poroshenko’s statement after his meeting with colleagues from Slovakia, Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic, which took place in Bratislava on November 16. The new format will involve regular meetings between foreign and defense ministers of the Visegrad Group and Ukraine. In addition, Poroshenko’s colleagues assured him of their support for and solidarity with Ukraine. Slovakian leader Andrej Kiska, who had actually invited Poroshenko, said that Ukraine would continue to receive reverse gas flows from his country. At the same time, Kiska stressed that the Visegrad nations stood in solidarity with Ukraine and emphasized the need to impose new sanctions on Russia in the event of further aggression.
“...WILL MAKE UKRAINE’S GAS SUPPLIES SECURE”
Alexander DULEBA, director of the Slovak Foreign Policy Association Research Center, Bratislava:
“Cooperation with the Visegrad Four (V4) will make Ukraine’s gas supplies secure. The group is an important strategic partner. The four countries will help Ukraine with implementation of the Association Agreement. As it really is a large-scale operation, Ukraine’s movement in this direction is likely to speed up if it learns from mistakes that we made. Thanks to the help of the V4, Ukrainians can cut the time needed by a few years and it will be very important for Ukraine. For that to happen, however, Ukraine needs a strong central government and a parliament which will set it as a policy priority. Ukraine and the V4 have a lot of space for cooperation in making it work.”
“IT SHOULD NOW BE SEEN AS A WEAK LINK IN THE EUROPEAN SYSTEM”
Hryhorii PEREPELYTSIA, Doctor of Political Sciences, Professor at Kyiv Shevchenko National University:
“The Visegrad Group condemned the Russian aggression against Ukraine as well. However, regarding further sanctions and support, we can see that Hungary has refused to carry out re-export of gas, while Slovakia does so with great difficulty and under pressure. I do not think that Poroshenko’s meeting will radically change their national policies.
“Hungary and Slovakia will stay ‘partners’ of Ukraine, but quite unreliable ones, as they cannot be counted upon as our strategic ally Poland can.
“Reverse gas flows depend not so much on official statements of the president of Slovakia but rather on contracts signed with specific companies. These companies will abide by their contracts because they have to. They have clearly positioned themselves as nothing more than ‘business partners’ of Ukraine, as these companies also have agreements with Gazprom and fulfill their commercial obligations to it as well. They can claim that they are just fulfilling similar obligations to Ukraine. It does not look like the reverse flows depend on the political leadership of Slovakia and their stance on the matter. If we look at the official position of that country’s government, it is ambivalent. President of Slovakia says one thing here and another thing elsewhere. This suggests that his country, as well as Hungary, cannot be a reliable partner, as they both are under a strong influence of Russia.
“The only Visegrad nation which we can place our hopes on is Poland which pursues the unchanging policy of supporting Ukraine in all spheres.
“Therefore, we cannot have high hopes for the V4, despite having pinned hopes before on its support for our European and NATO integration course. Unfortunately, we have lost the solidarity of the V4. I do not think that President Poroshenko’s meeting with their leaders will radically change the situation.
“Unfortunately, Russia has managed to split the V4, and it should now be seen as a weak link in the European system, inside the EU. In my opinion, we should focus not on declarations and new formats of political cooperation, but on new projects to ensure reverse gas flows to Ukraine. However, Russia will continue to have a significant impact via its ‘soft power’ in three countries: Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia. The Czech government’s stance, for example, is even more pro-Russian than the Slovak one. In fact, they are becoming lobbyists for the Russian interests in the EU rather than lobbyists for the Ukrainian interests. In the future, the value of the Visegrad Group for Ukraine will largely be determined by the position of Poland.”
