Experts have recently been making forecasts concerning the prospects of gaining the NATO Membership Action Plan by Ukraine and Georgia this December at the meeting of the foreign ministers of the NATO member countries. On the one hand, there are forecasts that Ukraine’s chances to get the MAP have risen due to the events in Georgia. On the other hand, they say that, vice versa, Ukraine’s chances have worsened and its chances to integrate into the EU have risen instead. The Day has already published the opinion of Polish experts who mostly think that Russian-Georgian conflict in South Caucasus has improved Ukraine’s chances. And they expressed their hope – and this was before the democratic coalition collapsed in Ukraine – that taking this into consideration, NATO should give the MAP to Ukraine.
The situation in Germany is far from simple; German Chancellor Angela Merkel didn’t like Russia’s inadequate actions in Caucasus. On the one hand, the chancellor states clearly that no country, including Russia, has any right to impose veto upon any country’s entry to the Alliance. On the other hand, Germany supports Ukraine’s West-oriented vector and wants the relations between Russia and Ukraine to be stable. Along with that, in contrast to the US and Great Britain that indisputably support the idea of giving the MAP to Ukraine, Germany does not express any opinion in this connection.
An official from the German Ministry of Foreign Relations explained that Ukraine occupies an important place in German policy. It is Germany’s second trade partner after Russia in the post-Soviet space. Besides, Ukraine occupies an important place in the sphere of energy, because one-third of energy carriers imported to Germany comes via Ukraine.
Admitting that Germany views NATO as the main support for its foreign policy and that the US is its strategic partner, the diplomat stated that the Alliance has been guarantying security in Europe for the last 60 years and is a “stability anchor” not only for Europe, but for other regions as well.
Responding to the question why Alliance does not want to give Ukraine any opportunity to catch hold of this anchor, he said that at the Bucharest summit they “promised Ukraine that it would become the member of NATO.” And relations between Ukraine and the Alliance were given a new quality. Along with that the diplomat stressed that Ukraine has to fulfill many conditions in order to get the MAP. In particular there is a consensus to be made among Ukraine’s political elite, because not only many Ukrainians are against Ukraine’s entry to the Alliance, there is no consensus among the leadership of the country as well.
Commenting on the question concerning the collapse of the coalition, the official from the Ministry of Foreign Relations of Germany stated that Berlin is also interested in Ukraine’s having an efficient government and a stable political majority. They are needed to implement the programs of economic reforms and for implementation of the constitutional reform. And it is impossible to do this without a functioning government, the diplomat emphasized. He said that Germany will cooperate with any government and added that this government should clearly share Berlin and Brussels’s position concerning non-recognition of South Osetia and Abkhazia, otherwise it can worsen the relations between Ukraine and the EU.
Besides political grounds, in his words, NATO takes into consideration the factor of Ukraine’s good relations with its neighbors and absence of territorial conflicts. “NATO membership,” the diplomat stressed, “should become the country’s contribution into improving of security of the Alliance in Europe and the region.”
This is the reason why in Bucharest a resolution was made only to intensify the dialogue, with the assessment of whether Ukraine fulfills the obligations to be made in December. At the moment, in his words, it is too early to say what will be the result of the assessment, but “we are interested in finding a unity among the NATO members on this question in December,” for the consultations are still going on.
The diplomat admitted that the events in Caucasus made Germany think over its policy of neighborhood and whether they have enough instruments in this policy to stabilize the neighboring relations. Therefore on the initiative of the Department of Foreign Relations, Europe is thinking now about a wide aspect of stabilization in the Black Sea region, because these moments are not considered adequately in the European security policy. These questions will be considered at the session of the European Commission which makes recommendations concerning building of relations with our neighbors. The situation in South Caucasus will be considered in this package of proposals on the Eastern Partnership.
In the German diplomat’s opinion, it is possible that a stabilization package will be needed, similar to the one developed for the Balkans. He also reminded that Turkey proposes to create a platform of stability in this region for the reconciliation of three countries. And this idea has also found support in the EU.
The diplomat considered that it is impossible to speak about any stability and security in Europe without Russia, because it is impossible to resolve a number of question without it, moreover if it is against them. But, along with that he admitted that this does not mean that Russia has the right to impose veto on the invitation of Ukraine to NATO. Germany explains Russia’s negative reaction by the facts that Moscow thinks that Washington is guiding NATO and views the process of NATO enlargement as weakening of its own positions. As for the EU enlargement and involvement of many countries in this union, Russia does not see any threat for itself here.
Berlin thinks that closer relations between Ukraine and the EU do not depend on the process of NATO integration. These are two different processes. The German diplomat thinks that the recent summit Ukraine – EU was a step ahead in the development of relations between Brussels and Kyiv. Although Kyiv was not given the prospect to enter the EU, taking into consideration to a great extent the circumstances within Europe, after the Association Agreement is signed and successfully realized, Ukraine will receive great possibilities. The diplomat thinks that the package of agreements signed in Paris is attractive not only for the EU, but for Ukraine as well, despite not all Kyiv’s expectations met the reality.
Another German expert considers that a “window of opportunities” should be added to the conditions mentioned above that Ukraine should fulfill in order to enter NATO. In other words, these are favorable circumstances, when the country’s entry to the Alliance becomes possible. The same expert thinks that under current conditions Estonia wouldn’t have entered NATO. The expert thinks that the new “windows of opportunities” may emerge if Russia becomes a democratic country. So it appears that Ukraine should be able to use these opportunities and be always ready for the opportunities that emerge. But does current political elite in Ukraine, which has just started a new fight for power, have time for this?
