The results of prediction studies by the Institute of Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine were cited last week by the institute’s director, Serhiy Pyrozhkov, at an international workshop conference called “Demographic Development of Ukraine and Demographic Policy Priorities.” Experts say that neither one-time payments issued after the birth of a child nor the improved wellbeing of Ukrainian families can halt the depopulation process in our country. In fact, Pyrozhkov says that 34.8 million is a rather optimistic figure. There may even be fewer of us by 2050. “There is a demographic crisis in Ukraine and this is a generally known fact. This crisis has been underway since the 1990s and will continue. The population decrease trend will remain,” said Pyrozhkov, adding, “We must figure out how to develop a demographic strategy in depopulation conditions. A model for population stability is unlikely.” What should we do under the circumstances? Stop thinking about the size of the population and pay more attention to the standard of living? In the grand scheme, what’s so terrible if there will be 34,800,000 people living in Ukraine instead of 47,000,000. So what? We’re not talking about war but about the declining birth rate. The current problem does not simply mean that there are few births; Ukraine also has a high mortality rate. First and foremost, the state should take care of the living. “The so-called balance model is becoming more widespread in the world,” says Pyrozhkov. “A population assessment is carried out not by means of quantitative indicators but qualitative potential.”
Is a depletion of manpower resources in store for Ukraine? The available resources should be exploited more productively. There is still very high unemployment in our country, and undiscovered talents and developments. If the Ukrainian government succeeds in raising the level of wellbeing, labor migrants will be coming to us rather than leaving, and not just foreigners but our own Ukrainian labor migrants will no longer need to seek a better life abroad.
But all this lies in the distant future and only if we succeed in overcoming our economic hardships. Yuriy Pavlenko, the Minister of Youth, Family, and Sports, refuses to believe the forecasts issued by the Institute of Demography and Social Studies. “I am alarmed by Mr. Pyrozhkov’s prognosis,” Pavlenko says. “I hope that in 2050 there will be far more citizens of Ukraine. We will work on this.” Pavlenko plans to work with his ministry, focusing on the family.
Experts attribute the declining birth rate to family problems, including inadequate parenting, loss of tradition, single-parent families, common-law marriages, high divorce rate, reductions in social housing construction programs, and family violence — all of which results in a high rate of homelessness among children. The “family” ministry intends to combat all these problems by increasing various social payments.
How effective will this be? According to numerous demographic studies, declining birth rates result from changes in women’s social status, expansion of their interests outside the family, and rising employment. Of course, lack of money is also significant when it comes to deciding whether a couple should have a child, but more often than not women are governed by the criterium, “I want/I don’t want.” “If we waited until we were economically well off, we wouldn’t have children,” say fathers and mothers who have successfully raised several children while eking out a living. Meanwhile, in economically prosperous Western European countries the birth rate is significantly lower than in Ukraine. Experts agree that nothing can be done. There will be fewer of us. One can only hope that the remaining 34.8 million Ukrainians will have a better life than today’s 47 million.
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In terms of population Ukraine ranks 7th among all European countries, after Russia, Turkey, UK, France, and Italy, and 5th as a country situated entirely within Europe. The earlier demographic crisis of the 1930s-1940s was caused by the mass repressions and WWII. That crisis was rather quickly overcome thanks to the birth rate that remained on its previous high level. The current demographic crisis began in some Ukrainian regions under the Soviets; in 1993-94, the depopulation process affected practically every region of Ukraine. In general, during the last period the number of residents has decreased not only in the capital, but also in some western oblasts (e.g., Zakarpattia, Rivne, and Volyn). The Donbas has suffered the heaviest population losses.
Ukraine’s population density is 80 persons per sq km, with the highest concentration of people in the Donbas (183) and the lowest in Cherkasy oblast (39). More than two-thirds of Ukrainians live in urban areas. In the period 1959-2001, given 15.7 percent overall population growth, the number of urban residents increased by 70.1 percent, while the number of rural residents dropped by 30.1 percent. Ukrainians are the most populous ethnic group in every region of Ukraine, except the Crimea. Ternopil oblast is practically monoethnic, with Ukrainians comprising 97.8 percent of the population. The largest ethnographic group is the Hutsuls, with a population of 21,400 living mainly in Ivano-Frankivsk oblast.
