It is already clear that the year 2014 will have serious consequences for the future. It is special for both Ukraine and the rest of the world. We have seen a great societal upsurge on the Maidan, the Revolution of Dignity, and the Russian aggression – annexation of Crimea and occupation of a part of the Donbas. The war against the Kremlin is still going on, with losses numbering thousands of the lives of our citizens. Undoubtedly, all these events have had a dramatic effect on the political situation not only in Ukraine but all over the world.
By tradition, we are summing up the past year. How have Ukraine and the world changed? Last week our newspaper’s guests were ex-premier Yevhen Marchuk, ex-foreign minister Volodymyr Ohryzko, and Ukrainian ex-ambassador to China and Japan Yurii Kostenko. Each of them is an authoritative expert on security and foreign policy.
VOLODYMYR OHRYZKO: “THIS YEAR HAS SHOWED THAT THERE IS IN FACT NO SYSTEM OF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY”
Mykola SIRUK: “The past year was full of events, particularly of an international nature, which directly concerned our country. There was a great deal of tragedies and reappraisal of relations… How would you sum up 2014 from the angle of geopolitics?”
Volodymyr OHRYZKO: “The outgoing year obviously brought some positives and created some problems. Among the positives, I would single out the fact that both Western and Eastern politicians at last opened their eyes.
“The West opened its eyes to the events in Ukraine. We can see them switching to a ‘sanitization policy’ towards Russia. This is a real practical step which means that values are being reappraised. This also means that the West is aware of the necessity for NATO to get its second wind and is reconsidering what is going in the EU. This was out of the question just a year ago.
“What also evidences a reappraisal of values is the latest debate in Germany – the German political class begins to seriously analyze what is going on. Sixty pro-Russian figures write a petition in support of Putin, but a few days later more than 100 other sober-minded experts write a different petition which says that ‘we cannot but call an aggressor an aggressor,’ which is really so.
“It is very good that Ukrainian politicians are also beginning to open, albeit a bit more slowly, their eyes. But even this is a major positive, for our leaders have at last understood that one must be judged by their real deeds, not by their statements.
“As for the Ukrainian foreign policy, the government seems to have understood that it should name its priorities in clear and unambiguous way – the European Union and NATO. Tangible progress has been made this year at least in terms of integration into Europe. This includes the Association Agreement and a recent session of the Association Council as the first practical step to fulfilling it.
“There has also been a clear, if only verbal so far, signal about Euro-Atlantic integration. However, to do so, we must renounce our nonaligned status and introduce into the law on the foundations of foreign and domestic policy a provision that Ukraine’s goal is to join NATO when we are prepared for this.
“Yet there have been far more negatives: this year has shown that there are in fact no international security systems at all. There are some sweet words and names, such as UN, OSCE, Council of Europe, and other splendid international organizations which, much to our regret, cannot guarantee their members real security.
“In my view, this is the year’s No.1 negative. It follows from this that each organizes his security the way he can if he is not part of a system of certain security entities. It was quite a clear signal to us: ‘Every man for himself, guys.’ We should draw a conclusion from this, too.
“The second negative: there are very few responsible politicians in the world, including, unfortunately, Ukrainian top officials and their Western counterparts. Very regretfully, this political class is turning more and more irresponsible and trying to shift responsibility to somebody else, thus putting off the necessary decisions to the next generation. It is easier like this – let it be their own headache, while we will somehow do with half-measures.
“And the third negative: neither Ukraine nor the West has a strategy of relations with the Russian Federation as an obvious aggressor and a country that has in fact completely broken the entire system of international security.”
YURII KOSTENKO: “OUR ALLIES IN THE EAST ARE, ABOVE ALL, JAPAN, SOUTH KOREA, SINGAPORE, THE PHILIPPINES, AUSTRALIA…”
Yurii KOSTENKO: “Mr. Ohryzko was the ambassador to OSCE, while I was in fact organizing entry to OSCE. So, it is very sad for me that this organization turned out to be toothless, feeble, and incapable of adequately responding to such serious challenges as the Donbas events. Moreover, OSCE chose not to defend Ukraine in this very difficult situation. This saddens me very much, for Putin is ruining the global system piecemeal.
“As for the situation in Asia, it was generally under control – there were no serious clashes of interests which could result in an essential aggravation of tension in the region. APEC is on the verge of establishing a free trade area. China and South Korea signed an important document on a free trade area. In other words, the idea of economic cooperation is ever developing and taking shape.
“Yet there are a lot of problems. Still high on the agenda is the problem of North Korea’s nuclear capability. There still are some essential territorial disputes which can any time trigger the clashes of not interests but armed forces. They are between China and Japan, China and the Philippines, China and Vietnam. The problem of a peace treaty between Russia and Japan still remained unsolved last year. For want of this document, Russia is formally in a state of war with Japan. All these problems remain unsolved and will be on the agenda of diplomatic talks next year.
“What interests us most of all is the reaction of Eastern countries to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. As a former ambassador to Japan, I am greatly pleased to express gratitude to the government and people of Japan for giving Ukraine unflagging political support in the questions of Crimea and the Donbas. In December the government of Japan approved a new package of sanctions against some officials and organizations of Russia. In other words, Japan is fully siding with the US and the EU as far as sanctions against Russia are concerned. It is also important that, in addition to political support, Japan is offering us considerable economic aid. In particular, it is taking part in the UNDP- and Ukrainian government-sponsored Project of the Early Recovery of Social Services and Peacebuilding in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. The total Japanese aid to Ukraine is worth 2.6 billion dollars.
“Incidentally, Terminal D at Boryspil Airport was built under a 190 million-dollars-worth Japanese loan. It is Ukraine’s hallmark now. And whoever arrives at or leaves this terminal knows that it was build with the help of the fraternal Japanese people which is really engaged in developing the infrastructure at the most up-to-date level.
“What is also interesting to us is the attitude of the People’s Republic of China, our strategic partner, a nuclear power, one of the Budapest Memorandum signers. As a permanent UN Security Council member, China bears responsibility for the worldwide situation.
“Unfortunately, we cannot say that China’s reaction was that of a strategic partner. The document on strategic partnership contains very good words, but we received no political support that we needed so much. Let us recall the double vote in the UN Security Council and General Assembly, when Chinese diplomats hid behind the fine words about noninterference into the internal affairs of other states, but the Kremlin turned this noninterference to its advantage – Putin and Lavrov unambiguously expressed gratitude to China for abstention.
“And I would like to add that China is driving itself, in a way, into a tight corner because it has not only some territorial disputes with its neighbors, but also serious problems inside the state. It is Taiwan, Tibet, and the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, where rebel fighters are quite aggressive. Beijing is taking an unambiguous attitude to these rebels – immediate destruction, shoot-on-sight orders. Yet China is calling on us to have a political dialog with gunmen and Russian mercenaries. China made a very strange statement on Crimea – something like you should understand the intricate story of it becoming part of Ukraine. The story is really intricate because it is not Russia but at least the Tatars or, maybe, even Turkey that can lay claim to Crimea. So, unfortunately, our strategic partner and permanent UN SC member was not exactly far from double standards in this situation.
“Experts maintain that China in fact benefited from Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. For it is at that period that the Russians made essential concessions to the Chinese in the gas contract. They allowed Chinese corporations to extract gas on the territory of Russia. It is an unprecedented phenomenon – earlier, the Chinese could only dream of this. Accordingly, this increased the likelihood of greater oil supplies from Russia to China.
“Moreover, some experts believe that Beijing’s restrained reaction to the events in Ukraine can be explained by the fact that China itself is going to annex a part of the Russian territory, applying Russian methods. The media point out that there is a hundreds-of-thousands-strong Chinese diaspora in Russia. There are some densely-populated Chinatowns there, which can hold a Party meeting any moment, turn to the neighboring state for protection, and request it to move in troops – for they, you see, are being despised, not allowed to speak the Chinese language, and have their national feelings hurt. Here are the grounds for annexation. It may also be argued that the Kremlin is pursuing a chauvinistic policy towards all ethnicities, so the Chinese should be protected, above all, in the Far East. I do not know if this gloomy prophesy will come true for the Russians, but the very fact that opinions of this kind are being expressed is rather significant.
“As for bilateral relations between the two countries, the Chinese side is emphasizing their economic component. But here, too, I have a lot of questions. Has anybody heard anything about the outcome of the much-hyped project of a high-speed railroad between Kyiv and Boryspil? Sumbaya Corporation has not yet invested but has already spent about 200,000 dollars on this project’s feasibility report. Or take the grain project – they took the money but failed to supply grain. Although no one knows where the money is, the project must be carried out. It is now a colossal problem for Ukraine, for the project is worth 3 billion dollars.
“We had some quite successful energy projects, particularly, one worth 80-100 million dollars to reconstruct Krasnodonvuhillia. But where are these coal mines now, who owns them, in what condition are they?”
YURII KOSTENKO: “CHINA AND INDIA ARE A CHALLENGE TO OUR DIPLOMACY IN THE EASTERN DIRECTION”
V.O.: “Mr. Kostenko has given a broad and very precise picture of the East. I only want to add that a very important partner has emerged there this year. It is Australia which has taken a clear and adequate attitude to Russian actions. This attitude objectively coincides with that of the US and the EU. In other words, we really have today a very powerful partner which can also have a political impact on the Asian surroundings and give certain positive signals for an aggression not to remain unnoticed.”
Yu.K.: “Mr. Ohryzko, I have read your assessment of this visit. It is really correct assessment, and I support it. And I read in the newspaper Den that [Crimean leader] Aksyonov had accompanied Putin on a visit to India.”
V.O.: “That’s it.”
Yu.K.: “India seemed to be taking a good attitude to Ukraine, but Moscow and Beijing are pressuring it. As Russia is exerting influence, we can hardly hope that almost a billion-strong India and a 1.5-billion-strong China will change their attitudes in the near future. And it is a serious challenge to our diplomacy in the eastern direction.”
V.O.: “This means the East is being fragmented into the countries that are somewhat close to us by their values, i.e., democratic, and the ones that remain in the sphere of old approaches to the world order organization and which, first of all, take a calculator to assess what benefit they will reap from this.”
Ivan KAPSAMUN: “And what other allies can Ukraine have in the East?”
Yu.K.: “In my view, it is democratically-minded countries, such as South Korea, Singapore, and the Philippines. In spite of some domestic political problems, the Philippines is the largest Catholic country in the East, and the mentality of true Catholics makes them move in the right political direction.”
M.S.: “What about Malaysia and Indonesia?”
Yu.K.: “Here we should take into account the Islamic factor. The Tatars could help us in this. If our Tatar friends continue to actively defend their national dignity on the international arena, they won’t do without Indonesia, the largest Muslim state. The latter will have to react to and support the Tatars, which will inevitably raise the question of Crimea’s status.”
M.S.: “India is the world’s largest democracy. So, how come it is taking such an attitude to our country?”
V.O.: “I’ve been more than once to that country which is interesting by itself, and I think it continues to consistently uphold a decades-long tradition. The Soviet-Indian or Russian-Indian relations have undoubtedly affected the situation. On the other hand, Russian diplomats have worked very seriously via its agents of influence in the past few decades to tie up India, a great regional power, to the Russian military-industrial complex. Much to our and the entire civilized world’s regret, they managed to do so. India is now one of very serious markets for Russia’s MIC. This means product maintenance, new supplies of weapons, etc. With due account of India’s not so simple relations with Pakistan and China, this is the point the Indian leadership cannot help reacting to.
“We supplied armaments to Pakistan some time ago. The Russians promptly took advantage of this to drive a serious wedge between Ukraine and India. Yet this does not mean that we should stand with our arms folded and look on this as a given. The world is changing. So, this depends on how effectively we will shape our foreign policy towards India, too. There are very many opportunities for us to use our foodstuffs as leverage, for we are aware of food problems in that region. Our MIC can also play a role, for we can also produce high-quality weapons. In other words, we need to show a political will and willingness to enter this market and then the political space. We must make some realistic offers that cannot be declined.”
Yu.K.: “We should add Pakistan to the list of the states that support us.”
VOLODYMYR OHRYZKO: “OUR LEADERSHIP HAS IN FACT THREE OR FOUR MONTHS TO BEGIN TO MAKE REAL CHANGES”
Valentyn TORBA: “Due to corruption and domestic troubles, our country has always looked on the international arena as an ‘ugly duckling.’ Many are to blame for this. Still, what do you think is Ukraine’s image abroad today?”
Yu.K.: “We would like Ukraine’s image to be attractive and reasonable. But what happened in January and February, when blood was spilled on the Maidan, showed our nation’s love of freedom but, on the other hand, it scared the world. I have some friends in France, who are still afraid of the events in Ukraine. German politicians are divided. It is good that Angela Merkel has taken the right stand now.
“Image is not a simple thing. Switzerland will always have a nice image – a calm, affluent, and beautiful country with mountains and rivers. We will not reach this level in the near future. The power of the Ukrainian nation is in patriotism and aspiration to overcome the Russian aggression. This appeals to many people in the world. At the same time, we must remember that more than a half of the world consists of the average citizens scared by an unstable Ukraine. When a Boeing was shot down on the territory of Ukraine, everybody was scared. Only later did they ask who and how downed it. These things are not exactly pleasant for Ukraine.”
V.O.: “I agree. But will we be able to improve the image of Ukraine in the next few months? It is a matter of principle. You’ve hit the bull’s-eye. If the West does not see in the next 3-4 months that the Ukrainian government really wants changes, we will be in for very serious ordeals. In spite of the government’s attempts to reduce all expenditures to the minimum and the expectations that business will begin to work, Ukraine will be unable to survive without Western financial aid.
“Our leadership should understand a simple truth: the level of mutual understanding with the Western world will plummet unless the government:
- eradicates corruption which, unfortunately, not only has not ceased after the Revolution of Dignity but still remains on an incredibly large scale;
- immediately introduces a new economic system which will allow business to function without pressure from the state and, accordingly, bribers, etc.;
- takes concrete steps in the social sphere to ensure a joint responsibility of both the rich and the poor, with the rich shouldering the main burden.
“No wonder we have three ministers and several deputy ministers who are foreigners. This is a right approach, for history evidences that a great deal of the money granted to Ukraine has utterly disappeared. To some extent, they are ‘overseers,’ but it is our fault that they have appeared.”
Yu.K.: “The people Mr. Ohryzko is speaking about will make a considerable contribution to the [improvement of the] image of Ukraine. They will say: ‘The Ukrainians are normal people, you can cooperate with them.’ But if they lift their hands in dismay…”
V.O.: “For this reason, our leadership has in fact 3-4 months to begin to make real changes. In the absence of them, the community will change those who have not done this.”
YEVHEN MARCHUK: “THE POSITIVE, EVEN THOUGH BASED ON A TRAGEDY, IS THAT SOCIETY AND THE STATE HAVE GONE THROUGH A COLOSSAL SCHOOL”
I.K.: “Yevhen Marchuk is now with us. Mr. Marchuk, let us begin with the most topical thing: today’s debate mostly focuses on the cancellation of Ukraine’s nonaligned status and resumption of its Euro-Atlantic course. What do you think on this matter?”
Yevhen MARCHUK: “To begin with, I must stress that the Yanukovych team achieved very much. They managed not only to legitimize Ukraine’s nonaligned status, but also to destroy the whole mechanism of support for NATO membership. But there are people in parliament today, who can advise the government on how to do things correctly and skillfully and not to look like children who want to get married. We know how difficult this path is organizationally, politically, and in terms of international relations. We should not fully ignore the Russian reaction either. We must be prepared for it and block their moves in advance.
“In spite of all the efforts of Yanukovych, Russian secret services and media to discredit the idea, there remained, thank God, a lot of civic and nongovernmental organizations that stubbornly defended Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic vector. And it is a very good base platform. What I am afraid of is a simplified, primitive, approach to the NATO membership campaign. It is a conceptually good and fundamental decision to cancel the nonaligned status. But there must be meticulous and hard work ahead.”
M.S.: “Mr. Marchuk, what kind of year has 2014, a year full of events in Ukraine and in the world, been for you? To what extent has the situation changed in the security sector?”
Ye.M.: “The first positive, even though based on a tragedy, is that society, the state, and functionaries of all levels have gone through a colossal school of learning how to manage the state and guarantee its security and development.
“The second positive: I think the vast majority of the public is going to drop the stereotype that Russia is not a threat to us but our ‘big brother.’ We have already deleted this interpretation of the question from our computers after all the events. And it is good as far as understanding today’s world is concerned.
“The third positive: we have really seen the birth of a Ukrainian political nation in a profound politico-philosophical sense. We know now that not only Ukrainians, but also Crimean Tatars and Russian-speaking people can be ‘the most rabid Ukrainian nationalists.’
“The fourth positive: our dramatic situation has shown from the military and political angles on what we can rely. From now on, we will no longer live in cloud cuckoo land and think that somebody must stand up for us. However, there are ample grounds for us to demand this because Ukraine has been taking part in the NATO-sponsored Partnership for Peace program since 1994. We have a moral right to expect support. Even today, fighting the Russian aggressor on our own territory, we are simultaneously engaged in 4 or 5 UN peacekeeping missions.
“Yes, we are being supported, albeit in a non-military way, – for it is clear that, say, the oil price slump is not pure chance. Besides, one must take into account that we live in a rather structuralized civilized world. Twenty eight NATO members mean 28 democratic parliaments, presidents, and premiers. It is very difficult to make them all immediately rush to help us militarily. They are helping us by other methods – maybe, not the way we would like them to, – but still they are helping. It particularly caused the US and Europe to start when terrorists shot down a Malaysian civil airliner over the Donbas.
“Among the negatives is, naturally, annexation of Crimea and occupation of a part of the Donbas. Even if we explain that there was interregnum, the collapse of the law-enforcement system and other problems in Ukraine, the outside world still regards what happened in this country as an overt Russian invasion. What is the way out of the Donbas situation? It is a separate subject. By all accounts, we will be unable to solve this problem soon. Russia is likely to try to freeze the situation, as was the case of Transnistria. It would take a lot of time to revive the Donbas even if all the problems were settled and fire was really ceased.”
YEVHEN MARCHUK: “TODAY’S RUSSIA IS NOT JUST PUTIN, IT IS AN IMPERIAL AND EXPANSIONIST MENTALITY”
I.K.: “Russia was preparing the aggression for a long time. What were the stages of this preparation?”
Ye.M.: “Indeed, Russia began to ‘manage’ the Donbas long ago. Long before the Russian troops came there, the Russian propaganda machine had already worked there, as had the Federal Security Service and the Foreign Intelligence Service. Having brought mercenaries and instructors there (it is common knowledge now, and we will soon know more), they began to exercise operational control over the entire occupied region. This included recruiting, mopping up, and filtration of people. It is no accident that so many people left the place, and some of them, like Valentyn Torba, had to hide in basements because he and his likes were on hit lists. Valentyn was sending reports until the last day. Before that, he had witnessed the seizure of the Security Service’s Luhansk branch. So, he said there was no resistance at all on the part of the Ukrainian special service – the Russians had taken care of everything well in advance.
“Like in any war, operational control of an area also includes establishment of a base in case of a withdrawal from the territory. The Russian special services are very experienced in this. So, even if fire is ceased in the region, operational control components will still be standing in the way of a normal life. All the more so if the border is open. This involves setting up an illegal network of informers, provocateurs, saboteurs, and people of influence. There may be underground weapon stores and many other things there. This is a routine military technique.
“Resuming a normal life in the Donbas will be a long and difficult process, especially if you take into account that people have an enormous quantity of illegal weapons. Naturally, the foreign gunmen, who came here for a ‘safari,’ looting, and banditry, will run away. But some of them will still remain behind. Also in action is the special services’ old and well-tested technique of establishing operational positions among refugees.
“The SBU warned that, preparing for this operation, Russia had brought in ‘moles’ well in advance. For example, in the spring of this year a career Main Intelligence Directorate officer was arrested in Chernihiv, who had settled there a few years before and pretended to be a ‘simple guy.’ When our special services came to know that Russia highly valued this agent, they exchanged him for such POWs as Yulii Mamchur, the son of Anatolii Hrytsenko, and many other servicemen.
“It was reported as long ago as in late March or early April that an AWACS-type Russian A-50 reconnaissance aircraft patrolled along the border with Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. It was clear even then that Russia conducted an in-depth optical and electronic surveillance of not only the Donbas, but also the entire eastern region of Ukraine. The A-50’s reconnaissance equipment allows doing this hundreds of kilometers inside the area.
“Besides, in the Yanukovych era, Russia had an essential impact on the structure of Ukraine’s armed forces. In particular, the then defense minister Lebedev announced six months before the Maidan that Ukraine was switching to a professional army. But we know that a volunteer army is at least three times more expensive than the one based on conscription. It is in fact under this pretext that draft boards were almost eliminated. Later, when the new leadership decided to order mobilization, it turned out that there was nobody to do this.
“Under Yanukovych, the Armed Forces of Ukraine purchased not a single tank inside the country. Moreover, all that was produced went, as a rule, to world markets. Ukraine was, even at worst, the world’s fifth arms seller.
“Or take the decline and fall of the Security Service of Ukraine. In all probability, SBU Chairman Valentyn Nalyvaichenko will be more than once touching up this dramatic picture. No wonder even during the rule of Yanukovych Russia refused to delimitate the Sea of Azov, let alone the Strait of Kerch. And Russia is in fact blocking demarcation of the Ukrainian-Russian border even today.
“One should take into account that today’s Russia is not just Putin but an imperial and expansionist mentality. Putin has hyperbolized this mentality and selected a team to put it into practice. There is so much talk today that Russia will break up soon. This opinion has certain grounds. Indeed, Russia has serious problems, especially in the economy, such as an almost complete isolation and a catastrophic downfall of the ruble. But we should not fly into a state of euphoria over this. Let us look at the part of Putin’s team which concerns Ukraine. Vice Premier Dmitry Rogozin has been with Putin for 10 years or so. He is a far right Russian politician who said several years ago that Crimea was Russian. Do you remember Rogozin visiting Ukraine when Azarov was still in office and the Maidan was bubbling over? He inspected then Ukraine’s main defense production facilities. Besides, he had worked in NATO for four years well enough to know whether there would be any tough military response from this organization.
“The next is Vice Premier Dmitry Kozak. As we can remember, there once was the so-called ‘Kozak initiative’ about the Transnistria problem. He is now the vice premier in charge of the Crimea problem. Russia also has a ministry for Crimea. So, they have two vice premiers plus a minister who deal with the peninsula. And that’s not all. There is also a representative of the Russian president in Crimea. In addition, there is a Rostov-on-Don-based governor of the Southern Federal District, who in fact forms a bridgehead for a special operation in Crimea and the Donbas.
“So, there are a total five entities in Russia that deal with Crimea. Visit the website of Russia’s Defense Ministry with Shoigu at the head and see how many events are taking place in this sector, beginning with the establishment of a self-sufficient Russian military grouping in Crimea. If we visit the website of Vice Premier Kozak, we will see that he convenes Crimea-related meetings at least twice a week. And it is only what is being officially made public. And can you fancy how much is being done without being made public? The same applies to the website of the minister for Crimea. In other words, a powerful state machine is working, and there are pros in the machine. These pros have been with Putin for 10 to 15 years. And if Putin wants to hold a meeting, he does not need to explain things from scratch. There is another circumstance which I call ‘chained together.’ Overall fear. The fear of not only Putin, but also of his team. What knits the team is awareness of the danger that all this can burst one day.”
YEVHEN MARCHUK: “OUR PEOPLE ARE TERRIFIC, SO NOBODY WILL EVER DEFEAT US”
V.T.: “What is your forecast about further developments?”
Ye.M.: “We will have to go through rather hard times. Maybe, there will be no direct military invasions, although we cannot swear it off now. By all accounts, Russia will continue to organize provocations, including explosions and shootouts, all over Ukraine and incite people to stage public anti-governmental protests. They will be doing their best to impose on the world the impression that Ukraine is in a state of civil war. ‘NATO? Out of the question!’ they will claim. In other words, we must adjust ourselves to a difficult but – I underline it – a wise and well-coordinated counteraction. Of course, a corridor to Crimea still remains topical for the Kremlin.
“We are facing a very strong, aggressive machine and the bureaucratic clan of a totalitarian state, which are chained together. But our people are terrific, so nobody will ever defeat us.”
By Ivan KAPSAMUN, Mykola SIRUK, Valentyn TORBA, The Day
