The Syrian army has begun mopping up the northern city of Jisr al-Shughour. Clashes with rebel fighters have already claimed the lives of 120 soldiers there. It was reported earlier that the division under the command of President Bashar al-Assad’s brother Maher, which bore the brunt of the fight against the protestors, had lost about 700 servicemen. It is almost certain that the country is sinking into a full-scale civil war. Guerrilla units have been supplied with arms by neighboring Iraq for several months now; the country has also been the source of extremists. Their number is relatively small so far, and most of them are supposed to go further on to Libya. The residents of Jisr al-Shughour and its outskirts are leaving their houses to seek refuge in neighboring Turkey. Around 2,800 people have crossed the border in the past few days.
European and US actions and sanctions against high-ranking Syrian officials have remained mostly declarative so far. But the change in the attitude of Turkey is rather unpleasant news for the clique of Bashar al-Assad and his brother Maher. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, widely regarded as one of President Assad’s staunchest allies, has accused the
Syrian authorities of cruelty and inhumanness. The premier says he understood during his recent telephone conversation with the Syrian leader that the latter was not aware of the seriousness of the situation. “The situation in Syria is on the verge of a humanitarian disaster, and Assad failed to launch the promised reforms,” Erdogan said. He also noted that Ankara supports the idea of the UN Security Council condemning the actions of Damascus. The Turkish affront proved to be unexpected in European capitals, as well as in Moscow.
Saudi Arabia is a true guide, sponsor and inspirer of the opposition movement in Syria. Of late Damascus has been riding the coattails of Iranian policies. Teheran financially supported the Syrian regime in exchange for loyalty. There were instances of Islamic Revolution Guards being directly engaged in clashes with Syrian oppositionists. Moreover, Iran’s capital firmly supports the Syrian authorities’ tough stand on the protests. This is unsurprising, given that Iran will benefit from keeping al-Assad and his inner circle in power, which will enable it not only to wield clout in the eastern Mediterranean but also indirectly control Middle East developments and keep the relations between Syria and Israel tense.
Saudi Arabia is pursuing entirely different objectives. A change of government in Damascus is the first step to the physical isolation of Iran. The other coast of the Persian Gulf is obviously worried about the growing aggressiveness of the Iranian regime and its attempts to destabilize the situation in Bahrain and other emirates, as well as in Saudi Arabia itself. It is a longtime dream of the Saudis to knock the Syrian card out of Iran’s deck, and this dream seems closer than ever before. Turkey’s refusal to support the Syrian regime is a new important trump card in the Saudi hands, which increases the isolation of al-Assad. If Ankara stops supporting Damascus, this will also strengthen the positions of Saudi Arabia in neighboring Lebanon, which may well become a base for Syrian opposition fighters.
The Syrian government’s claim that these events are carefully orchestrated from abroad is not groundless. The main intruders are the Saudi Prince Bandar and Lebanon’s Prime Minister Saad Hariri. The latter’s father, Rafic Hariri, whose assassination has been blamed on Syrian secret services, was well known for his commercial ties with the high-ranking Syrian military. Rafic Hariri counted on their support in his attempts to undermine the current government in Damascus. He failed to do so for a number of reasons and was assassinated in retaliation. Naturally, his son Saad bears no love for al-Assad and is doing all that his father failed to do. As Syria and Lebanon are linked, first of all, economically, like two communicating vessels, the Lebanese connection in the current events is no less important than the Saudi one. For Saad, who was born in Riyadh, fits in with the Saudi establishment as much as his father did.
In the nearest future, money is going to be the chief motor in Syrian developments. EU- and US-imposed sanctions will considerably strain al-Assad’s financial resources. Money will be coming from Iran, but Teheran is also buckling to some extent under sanctions. Iran has money so far, but no one knows how long this will last. From this angle, the enemies of the Syrian regime can feel much more confident. The Saudis have shown more than once that, if necessary, they will not stint on expenses. And not only they. Libyan oppositionists keep receiving financial injections, even though disguised as oil sales, from the Gulf emirates, especially from Qatar. So money — the life-blood and motive of war — is and will be available.
The ever-growing anti-Syrian campaign in the international media, and the attempts of Paris and London to make the UN Security Council pass a new resolution, are also noteworthy. Incidentally, IAEA experts recently concluded that the facility near the Syrian city Deir Alzour, which the Israeli air force bombed in 2007, had been a practically finished nuclear reactor. Representatives of 17 out of the 35 IAEA member states have supported a resolution that calls for punishing Syria for its failure to disclose information on the secret nuclear reactor, with China, Russia, and six more states voting against. But the very fact of Syria playing nuclear cards against the backdrop of the problems with nuclear projects in Iran and North Korea only tightens Damascus’ international isolation.
Moscow is also showing activity, perhaps taking into account the negative Libyan experience. Mikhail Margelov, the Russian president’s special envoy for cooperation with Africa, is going to receive in the nearest future a delegation of Syrian oppositionists. The invitation was sent by the Russian Society for Solidarity and Cooperation with the Peoples of Asia and Africa. Although this will be rather a low-profile meeting, the very fact of it is very telling.
As the al-Assad regime is steadily heading for collapse, Moscow is trying to find out who it will have to deal with afterward in Damascus. It is by no means an easy problem because the Syrian opposition is numerous and split, and it is not clear who may become the national leader.
