Presidential elections in Transtristria made a sudden turn. Still on Sunday the results of exit polls showed the victory of the current leader of the unrecognized Transnistrian Moldovan Republic (TMR) Igor Smirnov. According to the survey, he gained 47.38 percent of votes. Former Speaker of Parliament Yevgeniy Shevchuk had the second place with 23.21 percent of the vote. The current Speaker of Parliament Anatoliy Kaminsky received 22.6 percent. However, on Monday things changed dramatically. After processing 95 percent of polling protocols it became known that Smirnov, who reigned supreme in the republic, gained support of only 25 percent of voters. This result puts him on the third place in the struggle for the presidency. His competitors Shevchuk and Kaminsky gain respectively 39.1 and 27.2 percent of the vote.
The current head of Transnistria decided not to acknowledge his defeat. He demanded to recognize the presidential elections that were held on December 11 invalid. Now CEC of the unrecognized Republic considers Smirnov’s complaint. At the same time the representative of the CEC noted that none of the candidates gained enough votes to win the first round.
It should be noted that only the CEC received 27 complaints from candidates for presidency and ordinary voters. Decisions have already been made concerning those cases.
It seems that the tricks and war that broke out during the election campaign yielded results (we should remind the readers that Smirnov’s son was accused in embezzling large sums of money provided by Russia for the Transnistrian pensioners).
If the CEC recognizes the results of the first round, then it can be said for sure that Russian factor played its certain role in Transnistria. Kremlin has finally realized a part of their plan to eliminate Smirnov, who, indeed, is annoying everyone now. However, another question arises: will Moscow manage to secure its yes man as a head of Transnistria? Former speaker Shevchuk was well ahead of the Kremlin’s protege in the first round. Most likely, Smirnov’s followers will support him in the second round. One can only wait for the second round and then it will be possible to make conclusions about whether Moscow really manages the election in other, albeit unrecognized, republics. The precedent in South Ossetia showed that local population didn’t support Moscow’s candidate. The same can happen in Transnistria.
EXPERTS’ OPINION
Aureliu CORNESCU, chief editor of Jurnal, Chisinau:
“Chisinau considers the elections illegitimate. But the main intrigue is in the struggle between Kremlin’s protege, speaker of Parliament Kaminsky, and the current leader of the unrecognized republic Smirnov, who is in disgrace of Moscow.
“Will the elections, or, rather, the results of the first round of elections be cancelled? It depends on whether the CEC will listen to claims made by Smirnov and will determine that the violations could have affected the results of the elections. It is also possible that the CEC will appoint the second round of elections. But as things are now, it is not clear who will participate in the second round, since the final outcome of the vote is still unknown.
“The current head of Transnistria Smirnov, who is very categorical in his position and irreconcilable, is the least acceptable figure for Chisinau. Recent years have shown that it is impossible to come to any agreement with him. Positions of Shevchuk and Kaminsky are not known, but they are, in comparison with Smirnov, the least evil.”
Leonid TKACHUK, head of Ukrainian Society of Transnistria:
“During the elections there were large additional lists for some unknown reason. There were complaints made. According to unofficial results suggested by the observers Shevchuk gained 42 percent, Kaminsky – 28 percent, and Smirnov – 26 percent. This small difference between them is due to those additional lists. I can say 100 percent certain that Ukrainian community didn’t vote for Kaminsky. There has never been such a great pressure from Russia before. Shortly before the elections a large group came from the RF: heads of Parliament Committees, their deputies, and militarymen. While in Belarus Russia’s inside men only showed a film about Lukashenko-Godfather, in Ossetia they promoted their candidate, in our country they showed films, promoted their candidate, and on top of that a ‘landing force’ arrived here. Ukrainians do not fall under such influences. Thus, it is clear why Kaminsky received such number of votes. Meanwhile, the other candidate – former speaker Shevchuk, who was not involved in anything and didn’t have Russia’s support, received a great number of votes. However, he was a few percent short for the victory in the first round. It still shows his high authority and people’s support.”
Serhii PYROZHKOV, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine in Moldova:
“There are no public results of the elections yet. Neither there are official reports. The Central Election Commission postponed the announcement of the results until Wednesday. This indicates that the situation is ambiguous and complicated in there. In addition, they increased their electoral base by four percent, i.e., increased voter turnout from 56 to 60 percent. It also leads to some reflections on the use of those four percent. And the third. There is a high probability of having the second round of elections. However, it is still not clear who of the three candidates that received the most votes will participate in the second round.”
In your opinion did Russia succeed in its attempt to prevent the current leader of the unrecognized Transnistrian Republic from being re-elected for another term?
“Of course, it did have influence. Moscow has actively deployed mass media. On the night of December 8 Russian TV channel NTV broadcasted a film against Smirnov. Besides, they used means of influence through mass media. Therefore, it has influenced the results in some way.”
Who then is the most pro-Russian candidate in Transnistria – Shevchuk or Kaminsky?
“Russia officially supported the Speaker of Parliament Kaminsky and did it publicly without hiding anything.”
For Ukraine who will be the best of the abovementioned three candidates for the presidency of Transnistria?
(Laughs.) “For us, this will be the one who will be elected to this position more or less legitimately. However, officially we do not recognize these elections. That is why we will accept whatever people’s decision will be.”
What lessons should Ukraine learn from those elections in Transnistria and also in South Ossetia, where the Kremlin made a bet on their candidate?
“It’s true that when Russia tries to influence the situation, their efforts do not always work. In South Ossetia it turned out that the candidate not dependant on Russia has won. The elections in Moldova show that the situation is evolving not according to the Russian scenario. Therefore, it is difficult to make any general conclusions.”
