In their current crusade against central, local, judicial, and legislative authorities, Ukrainians are more and more often resorting to rallies, pickets, and petitions. Kyiv and its administrative agencies come under fire most frequently as bakers, physicians, schoolteachers, students, and others line up to voice their demands.
The situation in the regions is anything but peaceful, too, because this is where the protest sentiments are piling up. A number of Ukrainian sociologists believe that the reason is the dropping living standard, a result of the economic crisis. Ninety percent of Ukrainians have already suffered its consequences: 80 percent were affected by price hikes and heavier utility bills, over 40 percent by the lower personal income, and 11 percent by unemployment. Against this backdrop of mistrust toward authorities the living standard continues to drop, causing people to fear the immediate future and urging them to fight these developments. The question is how to go about it.
According to the Kyiv International Institute of Social Studies (KMIS), 41 percent of Ukrainians are prepared to take part in protest rallies, including 21.6 percent who would do this by taking part in the election campaign as a form of protest, 17 percent—by collecting signatures for petitions, and 16.6 percent —by taking part in authorized meetings and demonstrations.
In order to get a broader picture of the current situation in Ukraine, KMIS analysts compared these figures with the findings of a similar poll carried out in December 2004. More than four years ago the number of people prepared to take part in protest rallies was 1.4 times higher (51 percent). However, one ought to bear in mind that the poll took place after the beginning of the Orange Revolution and the people were on a roll. Also, the form of such protests was different; most respondents favored peaceful protest actions and authorized rallies (43.7 percent wanted to take part in the election campaign, while 20 percent — in authorized protest actions).
In February 2009 the situation was somewhat different. “Although a noticeably larger number of people are willing to take part in protest actions as compared to December 2004, this trend is also noticeably more radical. Now there are obviously fewer people inclined to resort to moderate, peaceful protest, while considerably more people are willing to join radical, forceful actions. The fact that the percentage of such radically minded individuals is small is no consolation. In Ukraine, it is 1.0 percent of the adult population, i.e., about 370,000 people. Historians have calculated that nearly one percent of France’s population took part in the French Revolution, and this is something we need to bear in mind,” warn KMIS sociologists. In fact, the current poll shows that 1.8 percent of people are prepared to join paramilitary units, 1.6 percent would seize buildings, and 3.6 percent would take part in unauthorized rallies and demonstrations. There is some food for thought for the powers that be.
COMMENTARY
Yevhen KOPATKO, sociologist, Research&Branding Group:
“Ukrainians have become noticeably more radical. This trend is primarily manifested in the fact that no one trusts any institutions of power, above all the president, parliament, and the Cabinet of Ministers.
Second, virtually everyone is totally dissatisfied with the economic and political situation in Ukraine. Third, everybody feels very much uncomfortable because of the economic crisis. The fact that many people say they are prepared to take part in protest actions is evidence of not so much their willingness as their attitude toward current events.
“Declarations and actual actions can differ considerably, but the environment in which these sentiments are formed is not a positive one. In other words, if this environment continues to worsen, I think people will have enough reason to vent their protest in whichever ways they choose. There is a positive environment for radical sentiments and there is nothing the government can do about it. It is one of those cases when it [the government] is waging a struggle for mutual destruction and there is no end to it, as far as we can see.
“On top of the economic crisis, this country is gripped by a deep-reaching political crisis, and I see no trends signaling that those in power can agree among themselves. Even their self-preservation instinct doesn’t seem to be working. Most likely, this regime has no ways or levers to actually run this country.
“If this radicalization continues, regular or early elections as a legitimate way to express the people’s will may prove ineffective. However, this is the last resort for the existing government to keep things legitimate. But then there is the question of elections. If the protest sentiments of Ukrainians remain within the legislatively permitted boundaries and if elections are held, for example, to the Verkhovna Rada, then our parliament will be different. For one thing, Our Ukraine will get no seats. The current situation is such that the population may be mobilized. In other words, people will express their protest in a legitimate form by casting their ballots for this or that political force. There is a serious demand for new political forces.
“As a rule, 40–45 percent of the electorate are prepared to vote for new figures and programs before the election, but when the campaign enters the active phase people tend to return to their traditional preferences. However, I believe that today over 60 percent of Ukrainians are oriented toward new political projects. If this trend continues for the next several months, there is great likelihood of new political forces appearing in parliament. Besides, there emerges the possibility of a certain political force winning the campaign not on a nationwide basis but in several regions. This can be true of radical parties on the extreme right or left if they collect maximum votes in the regions where they are popular. This can bring about Ukraine’s further regionalization.”
