Washington officially recognized Syrian opposition

The United States officially recognized the National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces (NCSROF) on December 11. The President of the United States Barack Obama said this in an interview for the ABC news TV channel. “We’ve made a decision that the Syrian opposition coalition is now inclusive enough, reflective and representative enough of the Syrian population.” He also noted that this recognition is a big step which imposes great responsibility on the NCSROF to ensure the equality of interests of all parties and human rights. Meanwhile, the British newspaper The Independent reported that the West has already developed a plan for intervention in the Syrian conflict, because it has reached its “climax.”
 The Day asked Viacheslav SHVED, head of the Middle East and Asian-Pacific department at the National Institute of Strategic Studies to comment on this decision and also on how the recognition of the National Coalition might change the situation in the region.
 “This was an expected move. However, the Americans, unlike their European counterparts – France, the UK, and the entire EU, approached this issue very carefully and cautiously,” said Shved. “Not too long ago, Washington had serious problems with attacks on the US Embassy in Libya. US Ambassador was tragically killed there. So it was important for Americans that the Syrian opposition in its new format would demonstrate the viability and the fact that it included all the main forces that oppose the Assad regime – not only Sunni and Muslim Brotherhood, but also the representatives of the Christian community, Kurds, and other ethnic and religious groups living in Syria.
 “On the first day, when the coalition was formed, the US State Department welcomed it but said that it would carefully examine it and only then would make a decision. Everyone understands that the United States is the main force acting as a motor and the future success of the Syrian opposition depends on formation of this new format and also on the position of the United States, its material, military and technical assistance.
 “While the US looked at the situation, the rebels demonstrated the first major success in the struggle and now there are fights already on the outskirts of Damascus. They started shooting down military planes and helicopters. This indicates that the main advantage of Assad – Air Force, can no longer secure him.
 “In my opinion, after the recognition of the National Coalition by the US the NCSROF will be recognized worldwide as the sole legitimate representative body of the Syrian people. This will have decisive consequences for this Coalition to be presented to the world as the political force, capable of taking power from Assad, who once and for all discredited himself.
 “Negotiations between the US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and also the visit of the Russian President Vladimir Putin to Turkey, in the center of which was the Syrian issue, were of great importance. Some statements made by Russian officials show certain changes in the position of the official Moscow. I think that Russia will be forced to participate in resolving of the Syrian conflict and it will no longer be able to pull the plug for the international community on suspension of Assad.
 “As to your question about how this recognition will affect the situation in the Middle East I must say that a lot will depend on the balance of power and on the outcome of this tragedy. That is, whether the rebels who oppose the regime of Assad would be able to engage into constructive dialogue and whether Assad will be able to leave his post peacefully. If so, this would mean that there will be no bloody final to this story.
 “However, the Syrian crisis has another very dangerous element – chemical weapon that Bashar Assad controls. Many analysts say that there is a high probability that he can use this weapon against the insurgents. On the other hand, it can go to extremist organizations such as al-Qaeda and the results might be very sad. Military forces of the US, NATO, and some Arab countries are ready to intervene today in order to prevent the uncontrolled spread of these weapons.
 “Destruction of the Assad’s regime will mean a qualitatively new structure of the entire Middle East. De facto, Syria today is the epicenter of the ‘Arab Spring.’ The fall of the Assad’s regime will mean the change in geopolitical balance in favor of those countries that are at the forefront of transformational processes that are taking place in the Middle East. Another thing is that Iran will become much weaker because the Assad’s regime was its key ally in the Arab world. Therefore, Iran will have to listen carefully to the conditions, which the international community will make and will have to engage in serious negotiations with them.”