The events in Syria have again drawn the attention of the world which is not going to ease pressure on President Bashar al-Assad in any case. The other day, despite the beginning of the holy Muslim month of Ramadan, the governmental troops took by storm the town of Hama, one of the hubs of the uprising. The BBC reports that up to 140 people were killed as tanks stormed the rebel city of Hama. Startling news keeps coming from other cities, too. Meanwhile, Italy and Germany are demanding the UN Security Council be convened to discuss the Syria situation. In particular, Italy’s Foreign Minister Franco Frattini said that the Security Council must take “a very tough stand. This is the latest horrible act of violent repression against protesters who have been rallying in a peaceful manner for days.” Incidentally, Russia also expressed concern recently over the bloodshed in that country and called for stopping violence. On his part, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said he can see no grounds so far to intervene into the conflict between the Syrian opposition and the forces of President Bashar al-Assad. By the way, the latter said in a recent address to the military on the occasion of the 66th anniversary of the Syrian Army that Syria had fallen victim to an international conspiracy. The Day asked Ihor SEMYVOLOS, director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies, to comment on the current situation in Syria.
“We can see a change in Russian rhetoric. Russia has made it clear that it will no longer be shutting its eyes to repressions. This means the Syrian regime has overstepped the limit after which it cannot be supported from the moral and ethical angle. It is a turning point for both Russia and President Assad as a Russian ally. At the same time, the Europeans are so far not prepared to take more serious steps against Syria because there is a negative example of Iraq and the Libya problem is far from being solved. For this reason, serious pressure, including the use of force, is hardly possible in the Syria situation. Europe will focus on building up political and economic pressure on the regime. The Syrian government will react painfully to this. But even this gives no reason to think that the Syria crisis will finish very soon and that the Assad regime will transform or vanish in the nearest future because it is still drawing support from the Syrian bourgeoisie that is obviously afraid of the advent of Islamist forces. Ethnic and religious factors are of great importance: the Assad regime relies on the Alawite minority that is most heavily represented in the army and police which will not side with the rebels or take a neutral stand, as was the case in Egypt. The Alawites rally together on the basis of not only political but also ethnic and religious factors. They also consider it dangerous if the Sunni majority comes to power. In all probability, no fast changes and transformations can be expected, but the very fact of this pressure can be an effective weapon against Assad. His government is not prepared to linger under European sanctions too long. Incidentally, Turkey is also speaking out against this.”
Why is President Assad not making concessions to the opposition?
“Because, in the Middle East, to make concessions to the opposition means to show weakness. Showing weakness is a clear signal of the inability to rule the country, it is a step to the regime’s political catastrophe. The opposition against Assad emerged from where it was expected – this also includes economic factors linked with the problem of land and resource distribution. At the same time, the regime imposed restrictions on the activity of political parties and movements, including those of the Turks. Assad’s father, President Hafez al-Assad, once crushed the uprising in Hama similarly by means of tanks. This movement did not emerge spontaneously – it had already had a history of resisting the Assad family’s regime. Speaking of the Arab revolutionary movement, we also take into account the multiplication effect of the successful revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt. Yet one must also see clearly the domestic factors that provoked the people’s revolt.”
Did the world give a sufficient response to what is going on in Syria?
“No, it was insufficient. But the point is that the response of world leaders was limited because Russia had blocked firmly and unequivocally any initiatives towards Syria. It is Russia’s position that gave rise to the tragedy now underway in Syria. One way or another, Russia can be indirectly blamed now for Syrian tanks killing people.”
How will these events affect the Middle East?
“It is difficult to say because everything has radicalized. At first, people may turn out with the slogans of civil freedoms and democracy. But when they encounter violence and the situation goes out of control, we can forecast an escalation of violence and the advent of radical leaders and groups. Strong-arm methods of struggle and terror have more than once been resorted to in world history, when political violence grew under this very scenario. It is not the last social and political movement that is unfolding in this way. Another conflict that involves overt violence will not improve the Middle East situation, all the more so that Syria remains in a state of war with Israel. Accordingly, the ruling regime was not prepared to enter into negotiations and conclude a major agreement with Israel which was in turn not prepared to return the Golan Heights to Syria. Obviously, if the regime is changed and Assad’s opponents come to power, any negotiations or reconciliation in the Middle East will be hardly possible. The behavior of the government opponents shows that people may take advantage of this problem to rally their followers together. In any case, the Middle East situation is going to deteriorate – not only because of the Syrian factor but also because the Middle East is entering the era of turbulence and changes. The latter are very painful, and their consequences are all too unpredictable.”
Do you think this may touch upon Ukraine?
“I think Ukraine can take part in this – it may do some symbolic actions, for example, vote and support a peaceful settlement of the situation. Calls of this kind will not affect the domestic political situation in Ukraine. But we can also see that what is going on in the Middle East may also echo on the territory of Ukraine through certain diaspora channels. It is, among other things, the emergence of various Middle East-oriented political groups and parties. But this situation will have no serious impact on Ukraine.”
