The head of the Russian government Vladimir Putin is a frequent guest in Ukraine. But are Ukrainians pleased with his last visit? There is no definite answer to that question, because there are people in Ukraine who are not happy with the way the painful gas issue and the even more acute issue of Russian Black Sea Fleet in the Crimea are being resolved. But the very fact that the intergovernmental negotiations take place peacefully and regularly, that their agenda is carefully selected and prepared, that a new meeting of two presidents will soon take place gives hope. Even those leery of Russia understand that with a neighbor like that it is better to hold negotiations for years and decades than to have arguments or even fights. The current round is officially dedicated to preparing the meeting of the intergovernmental Ukraine-Russia Committee, sche-duled for late November. But at the same time, according to the Russian Ambassador to Ukraine Mikhail Zurabov, a meeting of the Intergovernmental Committee for Cooperation on Economic Issues will be held, with a planned ten bilateral agreements to be signed. Five of them are on interstate cooperation, the remaining five will be of commercial-industrial nature.
The agenda of the prime-ministers’ meeting includes cooperation in the sphere of energy, particularly the modernization of Ukraine’s gas transportation system, the prospects for the use of Ukraine’s transit capacities for gas supplies to Europe. Mykola Azarov believes that the gas fields in Astrakhan oblast and on the Yamal peninsula, proposed by the Russian gas holding Open Joint Stock Company Gazprom for joint development, could be the basis for a joint venture of Naftohaz Ukrainy and Gazprom. At the same time he says a merger of the two companies is impossible. “Good fields,” the premier rubbed his hands, “if we will be talking about starting a joint venture (JV) and an exchange of assets based on those fields, I’d say, we can reach an agreement.”
Ukrainian government wanted to greet the guest with a costly present — amendments to the Law “On Pipeline Transport,” to lift the ban on any reorganization (merger, division, separation, transformation) and privatization of the Ukrainian GTS. However, there is no unity on this issue not only in Ukrainian society, but also in the ruling Party of Regions. Moreover, the position of the Specialized Parliamentary Committee is rather negative. The head of the Committee and the head of the
NU-NS fraction Mykola Martynenko believes that the mentioned amendments will change the status of Ukraine’s gas transit system and its transfer under the control of Russia.
In fact, Russia is not that interested in a JV. It is pulling two gas pipelines to Europe at once, which, of course, is very unpro-fitable. To save money they could renovate the Ukrainian GTS. But Russians do not want to risk mo-ney on a politically uncertain Ukraine. That is why, the only thing that Russia is demanding from Ukraine is a merger of the two monopolists — Naftohaz Ukrainy and Gazprom. According to Russian experts, only after this plan is fulfilled can Ukraine receive the cherished guarantee of pumping a certain amount of gas to Europe (this is our strategic goal in top level negotiations).
Equally important for Ukraine are the tactical objectives — revision of the unfair Ukrainian-Russian gas agreements signed by Yulia Tymoshenko. If this will be achieved, it will provide a lower price for imported Russian gas, and, thus, ensure the survival and competitiveness of the Ukrainian economy. However, according to Zurabov, it is not yet clear whether this issue will be on the agenda, though Azarov is perhaps hoping for it. “We would like to focus primarily on the conditions of natural gas supply to Ukraine in 2011. The more so because recently there were the negotiations held with the European Union, which expressed the desire to organize trilateral meeting in a Russia-Ukraine-EU format, in order to discuss the issue of modernization of Ukrainian GTS and prospects for cooperation in the gas industry.
“And we, as a central transit state, are, of course, interested in deepening of such cooperation,” said Ukrainian prime minister before the meeting with Russian counterpart. Having desires, as they say, is harmless. This also, perhaps, is true about the desire to talk about Russian investments in Sevastopol. And it is probably just as harmless (for Russia) to remind it about the possible role of Europe in the modernization of the Ukrainian GTS. Russia clearly does not want this to happen. And, in fact, Europe is only speculating, but without Russia, without its guarantees on the volume of gas transit, it won’t invest a penny in our GTS. That is why it is not difficult to predict that the arguments behind a negative response to Azarov’s gas proposals will refer to a lack of enthusiasm of the Ukrainian side in introducing amendments to the Law “On Pipeline Transport.” And without that not just the complete merging of gas giants (to which, incidentally, the president strongly disagrees) but even their JV (in case with it the consent has progressed much further) are impossible.
However, it seems that from the current one-day visit, which, moreover, takes place only a few days prior to the local elections in Ukraine, nobody expects significant progress in negotiations at the political or economic level. Everything that could be agreed on has long been worked out and is ready for signing. A conversation about the possibility of mutual settlements between Ukraine and Russia in rubles in trade-economic cooperation may start, but there will obviously be no decisions made yet. This is a way too difficult issue for one round of negotiations and besides it’s not quite the level for making those kinds of decisions.
Yet Putin’s visit to Ukraine is very important for our go-vernment. This one visit will sign the bills “we will restore friendship with Russia” and “we will make Russian the second official language,” that the president promised his voters.
Is that the reason why, apart from participation in the negotiations and signing documents, Putin has a very vast social and cultural program? In particular, he will visit the Cadet Ball, held in Kyiv with the participation of girls from the Moscow Cadet Boarding School. He will also participate in the All-Ukrainian Charity Event “Vsim Svitom,” that will be held on October 27 in the Ukrainian Home. It would be interesting to see the amount of money that he will send by SMS to the needy.
