Ukraine held a presidential election last Sunday, which many people in the world regard as important as the 2004 elections that resulted in the Orange Revolution and thus brought Ukrainians the freedom of speech and assembly. What is the vision of the current Ukrainian presidential elections in the West and Russia? What hopes are their capitals pinning on them? Which of the 18 contestants are to be preferred, as far as effective reforms in Ukraine and the development of fruitful relations with the European Union and Russia are concerned? Read on this in the commentaries of Western and Russian experts.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT MEMBERS’ PERSPECTIVE
Marek SIWIEC, MEP
“Participatory democracy is one of the fundamental conditions determining the existence of a free state. Elections are a vital element of this system. Without the latter, no nation or country would have enough credentials to be a partner of the international community. It will be recalled that the last elections that took place in Ukraine were free and fair. I am very proud and happy of this fact, and I would like to see the same in the upcoming elections.
“Elections lay the groundwork for building democracy and structuring a new system. The society, a vital and decisive factor, has an indisputable right to confirm the credentials (in making the choice) of those who will be in power. I believe the new leaders will bring about a change of situation, and some positive developments will take place in Ukraine, especially with respect to relations with the European Union.
“As Ukrainian society is pretty much divided, there are two major leaders who control society and, what is more, people’s hearts. It seems to me that one of these leaders is likely to become the winner. Yet I really wish that that both of them– the winner and the loser (who will still remain an active politician) – would cooperate with the European Union and promote a common approach to the shaping of Ukraine’s European policies.
“Finally, I wish Ukrainians would choose a leader who can solve their pressing problems and help them achieve prosperity and a better future for their children, a leader who can help Ukraine build a good and stable future for the entire country.”
“RUSSIA’S OFFICIAL CIRCLES ARE SHOWING IMPARTIALITY…”
Tamara GUZENKOVA, leading research associate, Russian Institute of Strategic Studies:
“It is quite obvious that Russia’s official circles are showing impartiality about what is going on in Ukraine and do not wish to interfere into this situation. Firstly, this can be explained by the fact that the situation in Ukraine is such that any attempts to influence, one way or another, what is going on or at least show this influence have never been successful. For the explosive processes now underway in Ukraine are unpredictable.
“Another factor that makes the Kremlin distance itself from what is going on in Ukraine is that, by all accounts, there are no politicians here who could be called pro-Russian. There has long been a well-known company of main real contenders who have a real resource and potential to become president. They fully manifested their potential quite long ago. It is now clear not only on the whole but also in detail what they are capable of, what they can offer Russia, and what kind of policy they will be conducting if they win. So I think politicians in the Kremlin are more or less aware right now of the policies they will carry out when a new president has been elected in Ukraine. In my opinion, they enlisted long ago some kind of support regarding Russia’s main political and economic activities in the Ukrainian direction.
“What is now going on in Ukraine – the rivalry of political leaders for the presidential chair – is not critically important for Russia. The latter will cooperate with the new president and the political force which he or she represents. The main guidelines are more or less clear. In any case, painful, disputable and conflict-prone problems will go over to the new president. Nobody can avoid them. In my view, it is very unlikely that there will be any breakthroughs or supernatural novelties in the Ukrainian-Russian relations after February 2010. Things will develop in a rather conservative way, and both sides will strive to avoid acute tensions and prevent any new conflicts.”
“WHAT THE U.S. ADMINISTRATION WANTS TO SEE IS A PRESIDENT WHO…”
Steven PIFER, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution, Washington:
“Based on Ukrainian election polls, U.S. government officials and outside experts who follow Ukraine expect that Yulia Tymoshenko and Viktor Yanukovych will face each other in a run-off election on February 7. …It is difficult to see a scenario that would produce a different outcome. Both official and unofficial Washington hope that there will be a smooth, democratic election process, both on January 17 and February 7.
“Who is the US administration’s favorite is an interesting question. Had one taken a poll of U.S. officials in 2004, there no doubt would have been a clear preference for Viktor Yushchenko and the policy ideas he had for Ukraine. Today, I do not have a sense that official Washington has a strong view one way or the other regarding a “favorite.” What the U.S. administration wants to see is a president who can work with the prime minister and Rada to produce coherent policies that get things done, such as enhancing energy security. Part of this reflects the frustration here that in-fighting within the executive branch in Kyiv and a fractious Rada have meant that little was accomplished over the past two years.
“Again, I don’t think Washington has a strong preference either way. In part, it is not clear that there would be major differences in foreign policy between Ms. Tymoshenko and Mr. Yanukovych. The expectation here is that, whoever wins, Ukraine will continue to have cooperative relations with NATO but likely will not seek to accelerate that relationship. At the same time, Ukraine is expected to remain interested in drawing closer to Europe and the European Union. There may be less tension in relations between Kyiv and Moscow.
“The United States can work with that Ukraine. The key question for many here is whether, after the election, the new president can and will be willing to tackle tough domestic challenges, such as energy sector reform, constitutional reform, and fighting corruption.”
