US President George Bush has named his National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice as the next Secretary of State. If the Senate confirms this appointment, Ms. Rice, 50, one of Bush’s closest associates, will replace Colin Powell, who announced his resignation last Monday. Commenting on this decision, President Bush noted that he appreciated her “sound and steady judgment.” “The Secretary of State is America’s face to the world and in Dr. Rice the world will see the strength, grace, and decency of our country,” George Bush said in a brief ceremony at the White House. Stephen Hadley, Rice’s deputy at the National Security Council, was named the new National Security Advisor, the BBC reports. Many experts note that the president’s choice makes it quite clear what kind of foreign policy he is going to pursue during his second term in office. Is this really so? What can Ukraine expect from the US staff replacements?
Yevhen KAMINSKY, Doctor of History; chair, Department of Europe and the Americas, Institute of World Economy and International Relations:
“I don’t think you have to become fixated on certain offices and the people who occupy them. American foreign policy does not essentially depend on this. What do I mean? In late 2003 the United States opted for a strategy of democratization. This obliges the US administration to exert a democratizing influence on other states. The current administration has not yet classified Ukraine as a democratic state. We can therefore say that, as a result of Condoleezza Rice’s appointment and, above all, George Bush’s election victory, the US will be pursuing a policy of pressure on Ukraine. If we continue to put pressure on the media, infringe the rights of the opposition, and create a situation where one person is allowed everything and another nothing, depending on what he has in his pocket and what office he occupies, we will receive personally from Condoleezza Rice not just a policy of pressure but a policy of sanctions.
“If Ukraine chooses to democratize itself, I have no doubts that one way or another the US and Ms. Rice personally will attempt to encourage US investment companies and business as a whole to enter the Ukrainian market and boost investments in the Ukrainian economy. The Americans will also drop the arm-twisting policy they’ve been pursuing in the past four years since the ‘Kuchmagate’ scandal in favor of cooperation, and maybe we will be able to hope that Ukraine-US relations will be characterized by the term ‘strategic partnership.’ Today, the Americans do not accept this term at all. This may help resuscitate what was once known as the Kuchma — Gore Commission — this time the latter will feature the names of the future Ukrainian president and the current US Vice-President Dick Cheney. In other words, we can expect very rapid, accelerated, and positive changes. But the main thing is that the US is offering — in exchange for democratization — to use its influence and urge Brussels to promptly change its attitude to Ukraine and take a more clear-cut stand on Ukraine’s desire to integrate into Europe. Should this occur, we can expect to be admitted to NATO in two to three years’ time and to the European Union five to seven years later.”
John CONLAN, former US Representative:
“Condoleezza Rice has long been known as an expert on the CIS and, in particular, Russian affairs. She knows the Russian language. In all probability, she will be interested in continuing antiterrorist cooperation with Moscow. Yet she will also be supporting Ukraine’s independence. I think she will try to reinforce the independence of Ukraine and help realize its Euro-Atlantic initiatives. She is well aware that the ‘Russian Soviet Empire’ cannot be reestablished without any control over Ukraine. If the Ukrainian elections come off quite fairly, there will be even more amity toward Kyiv. Should any big obstacles arise to a fair vote count, as was the case in the first round, sympathies for Ukraine will dwindle. Besides, I think that very soon we will see a revised US policy toward Russia. The US leadership and public are surprised and disappointed with the way Moscow has abandoned democratic traditions in the past year.”
Yury KOCHUBEY, president, Ukrainian Foreign Policy Society:
“I don’t think the appointment of Ms. Rice to such an important post will bring any special changes. She has been on the Bush team before. So I expect no upheavals. As for the post-Soviet space, I think she will continue the erroneous policy of appeasing Russia and trying to use it in the US’s global plans of combating so-called terrorism. I think in this case American politicians, including Ms. Rice, are sending the wrong signals to Moscow. As for Ukraine, I don’t think there will be any essential changes. Naturally, very much will depend on the Ukrainian elections. This is an important point that may have an impact on US approaches. Should there be violations, nothing positive can be expected — with or without Ms. Rice. This is why I wouldn’t overestimate the importance of the White House reshuffle. Ukraine-US relations have been unstable in the past four years by dint of well-known circumstances. Of course, we have had some political support, but it ran short of Ukrainian expectations.”
