Andriy YERMOLAYEV, director Sophia Social Research Center:
“There are two sides most interested in a radical shakeup of the Cabinet of Ministers. This is undoubtedly the Our Ukraine faction, which has long nurtured plans to form a new government as a steppingstone to the presidential elections, as well as some pressure groups that represent regional elites in United Ukraine. The point is that the national leadership has not yet rewarded many regional elites for the support they offered in the election campaign. What they expected to get in exchange is increased representation in the executive bodies, including the Cabinet of Ministers.
“In the current situation, the president is in fact betting not so much on a figure as on various suitable configurations of his relationship with the parliament, executive bodies, and his own entourage. It is important for the president that the premier solve within a year such tactical problems as placing the cabinet outside the conflict between parliament and the president as well as excluding the cabinet from the president’s game, which will make it possible, if necessary, to place there a person considered as his successor, and allowing the government to work in the technical, not political, mode. Conversely, the parliament is now demanding that the government perform primarily political functions and be formed on the basis of a political compromise.
“If the regional elites, which just a month ago were laying an open claim to cabinet leadership, are not strong enough to play their trump in parliament, then the president will, of course, find it advisable to preserve the current government lineup for at least one more year in order to establish control over the new format of executive power in anticipation of the presidential elections. Should parliament be dominated by the opposition, the president will not come into an open conflict with the deputies and it will be in his interests to advance a compromise figure. The only condition will be appointment of a caretaker premier having no prospects from the angle of a big political game. It can be either a representative of the regional elites or one of the current so-called expert ministers. However, the president will never allow the regions or the opposition to foist upon him a strong candidate for the premiership. Yet, he might opt for a compromise over the government’s composition if this government’s leaders display no political activity. It is not ruled out that the ongoing dialogue between Our Ukraine and United Ukraine will result in a proposal about a compromise cabinet lineup. So the President could exercise this option only on condition that there should be a technical, not political premier.”
Mykhailo POHREBYNSKY, director, Kyiv Center for Political Research and Conflict Studies:
“Clearly, there are two political forces, the Yuliya Tymoshenko bloc (BYuT) and Our Ukraine, that hope for the fall of the Kinakh government. As to BYuT, they will benefit from any destabilization of the situation. Now, with no stable majority in the parliament and the presidential election campaign approaching, to dismiss the government would mean instability. I do not rule out that in the fall or next spring, when we have a workable parliamentary majority and a more or less clear picture of political struggle, the government might be replaced by a more stable one to match the future Verkhovna Rada configuration. In today’s situation, I think this is of benefit for those who want to introduce elements of destabilization in the political situation like BYuT.
“As to Yushchenko, I would say he is after this kind of a destabilized situation. It seems to me he is trying to get his sham victory legitimized. And, to this end, the premier’s office must be held by a new person, not necessarily Yushchenko himself. I think this is, in reality, a method of political struggle for self-assertion rather than a desire to assume executive power. This is absolutely unwarranted and mindless in terms of strategy and tactics.
As to the economic background of the desire to remove the Kinakh government, pressure groups always have an ulterior motive to place a man of their own in the government in order to satisfy their lobby interests. But it seems to me that in the current situation Kinakh suits, to a certain extent, all the main groups. So I see no reason why, say, the Donetsk group would like to put forward a person of their own. Judging by the government decisions in the fuel and energy sector, the cabinet’s economic program has no points categorically unacceptable to the Donetsk group. For this reason I don’t think they have real grounds to insist on appointing a new premier to their liking. I think there must first emerge a more or less stable configuration in the parliament.”
Dmytro ZHYRENKO
