The new round of the Minsk talks has been postponed again. Even though the postponement was announced by the separatists, they were acting on the Kremlin’s orders, with several reasons behind them, both technical and political.
A hasty visit of President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko to Kyiv, as well as an equally sudden visit of President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev to the Ukrainian capital, had to do with the search for a new format of negotiations to resolve the Ukrainian crisis. The fact that Lukashenko arrived in Kyiv at the invitation of Petro Poroshenko was due to the diplomatic protocol only, and it was this way with Nazarbayev as well. In fact, the two presidents came to get the real talks started. This is evidenced by Nazarbayev’s interview he gave for local television stations on the eve of the visit. In it, he stated bluntly that “my task now is to convince everyone and say it to Europe as well (...), that, if there is anything I can help with, I think that Kazakhstan is treating Russia and Ukraine equally, we have no conflicts of interest. I am, like they say, an honest manager, who supports no party, is neutral, and can make some contribution. This is (my) good will.”
Nazarbayev paraphrased Otto von Bismarck’s expression, as the latter described himself as an ehrlicher Makler, an honest broker, at a meeting of the Reichstag in February 1878 on the eve of the Berlin Congress, held in the wake of the Russian-Turkish war for independence of Bulgaria. It has become a popular expression, but there are somewhat negative connotations to it, as Bismarck supported the demands of Austria-Hungary and the UK at the congress, forcing Russia to accept most of them. Perhaps that is why Nazarbayev preferred to call himself “an honest manager” for the future negotiations.
Judging by the closed-door talks between Poroshenko and Lukashenko, presidents of Belarus and Kazakhstan will act as mediators. It is clear that without the Kremlin’s consent, they would hardly dare to act as such.
Although Vladimir Putin stated in his message to the Federal Assembly, and even more forcefully at his latest press conference, that all the problems with the currency and oil prices were of temporary nature, and everything would be worked out in two years, quite a few people in business and finance understand, in fact, the complexity, or even the disastrous nature of the situation. Of course, businessmen can be forced to “voluntarily” sell some of their foreign currency earnings and thereby strengthen the ruble somewhat. However, this anesthetic does nothing to cure the very grave and prolonged illness. Likewise, even the most die-hard members of the war party in the Kremlin and its surroundings have realized the need to look for a way out. It is clear. First, they need to leave the Donbas, and do so quickly enough, so that there will be at least some hope to soften the sanctions and somewhat weaken the financial stranglehold by March 2015.
A second equally important factor, for Putin himself as well, is a very marked weakening of Russia’s international position. His Crimea and Donbas adventures were designed to force the West to take into account Russian interests in the CIS nations and the Baltic region, as they are understood in the Kremlin. The polar opposite has happened, and not only there.
Russian diplomacy has suffered a major blow when it turned out that Cuba and the US had decided to restore mutual relations, just after Russia had written off most of the Cuban debt accumulated since the Soviet time.
Negotiations, as we now know, were held in secrecy for more than six months with the Pope as mediator, and Russia’s Cuban friends did not even feel the need to inform the Kremlin. The result was embarrassing not only diplomatically, but image-wise as well. The event’s precise timing was an accident, but it came, as many other such events did before, at a wrong moment for Russia. In addition, misfortunes never come singly.
Another best friend of Russia, Venezuela, is also less than reliable after a sharp decline in oil prices. Its state budget requires prices of 140 to 150 dollars per barrel to make the ends meet, and all imports of basic commodities have just collapsed. Shelves of cut-price stores for the poor have emptied, and the main social base of President Nicolas Maduro’s regime has begun taking to the streets in protest. So, different people with different foreign policy priorities may soon come to power in Venezuela. The Cubans have probably realized that free gasoline shipments from Maduro will soon be over, and hurried to find new friends.
Russia can do without Cuba and Venezuela, but China is a much more troubling matter. That country’s main newspaper Renmin Ribao went on an attack with an article which explicitly warned Chinese exporters that trade with their Russian counterparts was fraught with grave difficulties, which were related to more than just settlements in roubles, dollars, and euros. The article, authored by leading Chinese economists, points to the lack of necessary resources in Russia and the possible collapse of its banking system. Even if it does not happen, the article has a serious political component. China sees Russia as a not too reliable and very weak partner, so it is dangerous to deal with in the short term. This is a foreign policy blow below the belt, and the Kremlin is well aware of its consequences.
Judging from the statements in the press made by pro-Kremlin economists and political scientists, saving the separatists in the Donbas has ceased to be an objective. They have already got a forceful explanation of Russia’s reduced need for them. The so-called foreign minister of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic had to declare that “our secession from Ukraine was a moderate measure, because we want to join Russia. It is clear that this will not happen in the near future.”
