The latest US presidential election, held on November 8, resulted in a rather unexpected victory for the Republican candidate Donald Trump, who will become the 45th president of the most powerful country in the world. After all, most opinion polls put his Democratic rival and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton ahead by three percentage points just the day before.
With the votes counted in 46 states, he won 278 electoral votes to Clinton’s 218, thus clearing the threshold of 270 needed to win the election. Key swing states such as Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina played an important role in the victory of the Republican candidate, even though polls had shown for months that Clinton was in the lead there.
Delivering the victory speech at his headquarters, Trump said that Clinton had called him and congratulated on the victory. “Now it is time for America to bind the wounds of division. To all Republicans and Democrats, I say it is time for us to come together as one united people... I pledge that I will be president for all Americans,” Trump stressed.
Meanwhile, US Ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch assured all who attended the post-election breakfast at America House that regardless of the person of the commander-in-chief, the US would remain a strong partner of Ukraine both during the transition period and under the new administration. “We have strong bipartisan support for the Ukrainian sovereignty, territorial integrity, democracy, and further integration into Western and European institutions. I am confident that we will continue with it,” she stressed.
World leaders have congratulated Trump on the victory. In particular, European Council President Donald Tusk and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker called on him to strengthen transatlantic relations. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said in his congratulatory message that “US leadership is as important as ever... A strong NATO is good for the US, and good for Europe.”
Meanwhile, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said in his comments that the EU should now be ready to American foreign policy becoming less predictable in the near future.
Russian President Vladimir Putin sent a telegram congratulating Trump and saying he hoped to “work together to lift Russia-US relations out of the current crisis” and believed that “setting up a constructive dialog between Moscow and Washington... will be in the interests of both our nations and of all global society.”
Interestingly, there was no congratulatory letter on the Ukrainian president’s website or his Twitter page at the time of this issue going to print. It should be recalled that Petro Poroshenko had not met with Trump during his visit to the US, but he met with Clinton.
The news of Trump’s victory sent world markets sharply lower. In particular, the British Guardian said in this regard: “Financial markets have told the world what they think of the election of Donald Trump as US president – and it is not good. There will be a shock that will be felt around the world,” and added: “If the financial markets are correct, this Republican’s presidency will be bad for economic growth and bad for global trade.”
For instance, the American Los Angeles Times reminded its readers that the president-elect had repeatedly mentioned the British referendum and promised that the US election would have a similar effect to Brexit. Experts warned of “terrible” consequences for the economy and the two nations’ international position should the British support withdrawal from the EU and the Americans elect Trump as their next president, the newspaper noted.
The Financial Times drew parallels with the British referendum as well. “Nationalism, nativism, call it what you will, is alive and well at precisely the moment we hapless elitists thought it had been consigned to history,” the publication emphasized.
NOVEMBER 8, 2016. A SUPPORTER OF DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE HILLARY CLINTON WATCHES AND WAITS AT HER ELECTION NIGHT RALLY IN NEW YORK, U.S. / REUTERS photo
Clearly, Trump’s Ukrainian policy is what is really important for us. And it is important to recall some sayings of the Republican candidate here. He said, in particular: “The US has supported Ukraine, but with words, not deeds. Our president is not strong and he is not doing what he should be doing for the Ukraine. We call this lip service. Part of the problem that Ukraine has with the US is that Putin does not respect our president whatsoever.” He said on another occasion: “We are fighting for Ukraine, but no one else is doing so, except Ukraine itself, of course, and it does not seem fair or logical to me.”
The Day asked experts to comment on the unexpected election results and explain this turn of events and what should Ukraine expect from Trump presidency.
COMMENTARIES
Oleksandr TSVIETKOV, Americanist, Professor at the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine:
“Above all, it was not a shocking news, contrary to the perceptions of some analysts and political scientists; I would rather say that naturally for Americans, they chose the candidate who looked stronger in the public space in the eyes of majority, who held out hopes of improvements, primarily internal ones. We should not overlook the results of the party machines’ work in the regions and states, which came out poorly for the Democrats who were mainly focused on rebuffing attacks on the party’s main candidate, and allowed the red color of Republican victories cover the entire south and center of the US, taking such seemingly impregnable Democratic bulwarks as Kentucky. The Republicans have got a majority in both houses of the Congress, and this offers a strong chance of unified internal and external policy reflecting the basic priorities of the Republican Party and especially its conservative milieus. Of course, formation of a new administration, led by the 45th US president, will take time. However, it is clear that the nation’s international apparatus will now use more stringent criteria in international relations, sticking to national interests as they are perceived by the Republicans. And to get the new leadership interested, we should be more serious than before about analyzing the internal needs of this and other partner countries and their possible reactions to external challenges. While not overestimating our capabilities and potential, we should not keep silent about our immediate interests either, chief among which is the fight against the aggressor and defending our own prospects for free development, building up civil society and maintaining equal relations with the rest of the world.”
Andy HUNDER, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine:
“As for the unexpected turn of events in this election, where one candidate had an advantage, but another won the vote. We have seen this situation in June with Brexit, when we went to bed with expectations of some sort, and woke up in a very different situation. Something similar is happening now in America. But I think that these are new challenges, new opportunities. We need to keep working and maintaining genuine relationships with our friends in the US and to find new friends who will support Ukraine, and in particular business development in Ukraine.
“Regarding warnings of isolationism, promoted by Trump during the campaign, America is so large and so colorful that definitely, there will always be friends of Ukraine in the US, so we need to maintain and build relationships. I think it will work.
“As for Trump’s statements about the possible recognition of Crimea’s annexation and his admiration for Putin, I think that the election rhetoric is one thing, but when a person enters the office and gets real advisers, it will be another matter. In my view, there is still work to do, but US friendship and support for Ukraine will continue.”
Aubrey JEWETT, professor of the Department of Political Science, University of Central Florida:
“This was a historic upset victory by Donald Trump. The United States political system has never seen anything quite like this. A year ago virtually no one thought that Donald Trump could win the Republican nomination, let alone the presidency. Even the day of the election very few pollsters, political analysts, or politicians thought that Trump could win. But Trump became the President Elect by sparking a movement across the country, primarily among white working class voters who felt that the American political system was broken and that no other politicians were talking about the issue they cared about. Many Trump supporters were looking for change and felt that Trump was the candidate that could and would do something different than other politicians including Hillary Clinton, but also including most all other politicians from both political parties. Trump also benefited from a large number of votes from people that really disliked Hillary Clinton and thought that Donald Trump was the lesser of two evils. Americans turned out in large numbers for early voting because both Trump and Clinton supporters realized that the race was close and both sides really feared and disliked the candidate on the opposing side.
“I expect that Hillary Clinton will be gracious in defeat. She will pledge to respect the vote of the people and to work together with Donald Trump to represent and help all Americans. From Donald Trump I expect that he will be a gracious winner and seek to work together with his supporters, but also the people that did not vote for him. In his victory speech Trump pledge to do just that. I think that Trump will not make as many changes internationally as many people expect. Trump said he wants to work to get along with other nations. However I do think that he will seek to negotiate better trade deals for the United States, expect our allies to follow through with their commitments (including asking our allies to pay more for the international security that the United States provides), and be more assertive in fighting the war on terror.”
Adrian KARATNYCKY, senior research fellow, US Atlantic Council; Myrmidon Group LLC, Washington D.C.:
“Clear Thinking on Trump, Russia, and Ukraine: Trump is surrounded both by pro-Russian ‘doves’ like Gen. Michael Flynn and national security hawks who support lethal arms for Ukraine like Newt Gingrich and Sen. Jeff Sessions. Although he supports a significant arms buildup for the US, Trump’s inexperience in foreign affairs and his mercurial views on national security are likely to create initial uncertainty before stabilizing. At first, Trump is likely to pursue accommodation with Russia. At the same time, he is likely to lay down firm markers on Putin’s international adventurism. If Putin transgresses these, Trump is likely to respond as a hawk, not as a dove.”
Kostiantyn HRYSHCHENKO, ex-minister of foreign affairs, Ukraine:
“The course of the current elections reminds me of the situation when George Bush ran against Albert Gore and there was uncertainty until the last moment and the result depended on a small number of votes, which was a historic event at the time. There are all prerequisites today that something similar may happen.
“It will be right to say that America is a stable democracy, but the archaic system of elections in fact leads to this uncertainty. Unfortunately, constitutional changes go through very difficultly in the US, and nobody seems to be interested in them. Therefore, the whole world will remain tense if this occurs over and over again. In reality, the Americans elect the president who is not just the leader of the world’s superpower but a person who will exert the strongest influence on all global processes. Here, at America House, we are tensely watching the results.
“Sometimes it seems to me that we do so even more intensively than we watch our own election race.
“If the Republicans also get control over both chambers of Congress, this will mean a rollback from the programs launched by Obama. And this will result in a very serious domestic confrontation.
“The victory of a Republican candidate means that populism is also becoming a very effective instrument in the United States. Earlier, the ordinary voter expected to see an experienced person who can substantiate his or her position in all the main directions of the foreign and domestic policies. But today, it is, rather, determination and big desire to break what is well-established, it is a departure from politically correct wording. As a result, including in the case of Trump, it is a Teflon candidate. Whatever he is accused of, this has no impact on the bulk of his voters because they think that his ability to cast doubt on the foundations of US policies is an absolute plus. This novelty is, of course, changing the picture of political life in the United States.
“As for the conclusion for Kyiv, the Ukrainian leadership and diplomacy should not count on an unambiguous result only. And it is too late today to try to establish relations with the new president. Yet, of course, this should be done well before the final stage of the elections, when relations are being established with those who stand a chance to assume key offices or have access to the future president. For, later on, they will all be haughty and almost inaccessible, and it will be far more difficult to cement a relationship with them. I hope that some efforts will be made in this direction both in Washington and on the part of various Ukrainian structures. Still, if there were real activities, we would already feel them.”
Vadym PRYSTAIKO, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ukraine:
“We have the same expectations from the new US administration as we had from the previous one: we need help to survive now. And the question remains whether Ukraine will continue to receive what it is receiving now.
“We believe that there are some stabilizing factors in American society and establishment, which do not depend much on the concrete candidature of the US president. Undoubtedly, the policy is shaped by the White House occupant and his inner circle, but we hope that the policy the US establishment has been pursuing until now will remain more or less within the same limits no matter which of the candidates is elected, for this meets the interests of any, Republican or Democratic, American.
“As for the media information that Poroshenko wanted to meet Trump during his visit to New York but Trump refused to do so, I would call it into question. We, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, did not have this kind of information; he wanted but was refused. But, on the other hand, how would it look that the president came from Kyiv and the two candidates met him? So I can understand Trump, especially after it became known that Clinton was meeting the Ukrainian president.”
Marek SIWIEC, ex-vice president of the European Parliament:
“It was a very negative voting against the Democratic Party establishment. There is a magic word that helped Trump to win these elections – change. And it did not matter to him how much it was needed to pay to effect these changes. It is very difficult to predict Trump’s policy, for he conducted his campaign to the last moment with the aim to win a victory rather than to shape a policy.
“Now, in our region, we should have a dialog with the new administration to preserve American positive involvement. It is a very important point now what kind of administration Trump will form. It is not clear now who will work with him, in particular, who will be in charge of foreign policy and defense.
“The rising wave of populism, which has reached the US after Brexit, can be explained by the fact that Americans are tired of stability and are seeking something new. They live a good life, have no challenges, some of them have a lot of money and some other have no hopes at all for money, which produces populism. And people are desperately looking around in search of something new and more attractive, but, unfortunately, this is discordant with a very aggressive policy of Moscow. This is bringing a very dangerous moment into Europe.”
