The Russian presidential elections (to take place in a year) will have a direct impact on Russia’s neighbors, to which it applies a carrot-and-stick policy. For example, recently Russia’s Prime Minister Vladimir Putin promised Belarus to build the most reliable atomic power plant in the world, while tempting Ukraine to join the Customs Union. In this case one should understand that the “Ukraine factor” will play a role not only in the foreign but also the domestic politics of Russia. Therefore Ukrainians need to protect their own interests. Many people still hope the current government will show “economic nationalism.”
Russian mass media has recently published some symptomatic materials. The dean of the world economics and politics department of the National Research University’s Higher School of Economics Sergei Karaganov optimistically wrote in his article “Russia is Lucky” in the governmental Rossiyskaya gazeta: “The country, despite all weaknesses of its development model, is seen as an economically rising state, with the prospect of becoming even more economically powerful in the future.” The political expert Stanislav Belkovsky has a different opinion. In the article “Decline of Russia,” published in Novaya gazeta, he describes a pessimistic scenario of the country’s development: “The key problem lies in the fact that Russia, as seen through a number of symptoms, is entering the stage of its civilizational decline.” These two viewpoints are the topic for a separate conversation requiring a deeper analysis.
In the meanwhile, the head of board of the Institute of Modern Development (INSOR) Igor Yurgens expressed hope that “the members of the ruling tandem will take the decision to nominate Medvedev for the second term.” Russia’s current president, according to the speakers of INSOR, will be able to reset Russian democracy. What does it mean? The Day’s experts comment on this.
COMMENTARIES
Semen NOVOPRUDSKY, senior editor of Moskovskiye novosti:
“Dmitry Medvedev is not a participant of the negotiations about the future president of Russia, but it doesn’t mean that he cannot vie for a second term.”
“Simply he is not the person who will decide it. In other words, he will be either nominated or not, in the latter case either Putin or someone third will be nominated. Because, in fact, Putin and some people of his surrounding are the real participants in the bargaining for the Russian president candidacy. It’s difficult to say when and how it will happen, but I suppose that, in view of the situation in the country, this will happen at least before the elections to the Duma. I guess the government understands, after all, that the Duma elections, which will take place in December 2011, should be held in a situation of definiteness for the electorate.”
“It’s clear that irritation against United Russia, as the regional elections show, grows in the society, and United Russia itself acknowledges it. That is why, I suppose, most likely it will happen before the elections in December 2011, and perhaps even closer to the actual beginning of the election campaign, that is in fall. Theoretically, one cannot exclude that this can happen even earlier, but the major problem lies in the fact that for Russia itself there is no substantial difference between these two presidential candidates (Putin or Medvedev), because, in fact, it is much more important whether the current government construction, the so called tandem, will exist. If Putin comes to power, it will be clear that there is no sense to keep Medvedev as a member of the tandem. If Medvedev comes to power, it’s unclear where Putin will go. If everything remains as it is now, generally, a second term for Medvedev will not matter. If everything is reorganized in some way, Medvedev will have to get rid of Putin somehow. But so far he didn’t show any ability to be an independent politician. Besides, people standing behind Putin are more or less understandable, and if they are compared with the people trying to make Medvedev an independent president, their influence in Russia in currently incomparable.
“INSOR is considered to be a kind of a liberal think tank, allegedly siding with Medvedev, though more to the liberal group in the government. This so called liberal group, first, is very heterogeneous, second, it can be divided into people who got some posts in the Medvedev administration and don’t want to lose them, and people who realize that Russia is in a rather hopeless state of its development and something should be changed. How much influence, political will, and possibility to change the course in the country these people have is a big question. On the other hand, one should understand that so far no program was realized in Russia. Since a program similar to INSOR was written for Putin too, when he got the first term, by the so-called Center for Strategic Development, which was then headed by German Gref, and it was not realized at all, though it was liberal. In essence, Russia is already past this, there already was a seemingly liberal program written for a new president, and this president’s rule didn’t fit the parameters of this program anyway. Thus, so far the question of realization of any program, this one in particular, regardless of who will undertake the second term, remains open. Because so far there are no indicators that the current Russian government is ready to consistently realize any program of the country’s development, especially a truly modernizing and liberal one.”
Yulia LATYNINA, journalist, Russia:
“In my opinion, Putin will be nominated for president. If two weeks before the summit in Yokohama (Japan), where Medvedev was supposed to meet Obama, Putin sends Medvedev to the Kuril Islands, in order, roughly speaking, to defame him before the international community, it’s clear why this is done — to show the Americans staking on Medvedev that he’s nobody. So if Putin treats Medvedev like this, he may not nominate him for a second term.
“Generally, we don’t have a tandem, there is simply a person who is the master in Russia, and there is some ‘clown,’ with strange speeches that provoke Homeric laughter. Because one cannot say every day, for example, that I will settle the accident on Leninsky Prospekt; I will punish those who beat Kashin or killed Magnitsky, and nothing happens. It’s clear that Medvedev was a temporary replacement, for four years, and played his role well. Putin found the right student.
“The report of INSOR, as well as Medvedev, doesn’t mean anything. INSOR is not even a comic institution, it’s something worse. Medvedev, despite the fact that he doesn’t play any role in Russian politics, has a number of people who are fed by him. Including INSOR. All these guys simply dream, despite the fact that their power is incomparable with the power of Putin’s clientele, that Medvedev will become president for another term. Putin’s friends are people who actually control the economy. So they can write funny reports that Medvedev will undertake modernization in the future. What prevents him from doing it now?
“I have another question: How long will the current regime persist? My prognosis is (and I can be mistaken): if at these elections to the Duma United Russia gets 70 percent, as, for example, Mubarak’s party did, it will not survive till the next elections. But the Duma is the secondary thing, first of all this fate will concern Putin.”
